Despite the US launching the Trans-Saharan Counterterrorism Partnership (TSCPT) in 2005 to fight terrorism in the Sahel, terrorism in this region rose from contributing 1% (2007) to 50% (2023) of global terrorist-related fatalities, attesting to the total failure of the Washington-led top-down approach.
Lindsey Graham* Is Clueless About Where the US Troops Are Deployed
In the wake of the 2017 ISIS* attack on a US military convoy in Niger, Lindsey Graham*, a Hawkish member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, confessed that he wasn’t aware of American forces’ deployment there. This revelation suggests that the Senate committee and everyone below it are unaware of where or why the US military is deployed, and much less of what their intelligence services do, noting that these are supposed to operate in deeper secrecy. Therefore, claims by US politicians and the media that its forces are in Africa fighting against terrorism are baseless. Only the deep state knows and occasionally reveals some details of its past work, for instance, its assistance in the founding of the Taliban and Al-Qaeda*. Accordingly, African states are best served by tailoring their own anti-terrorism strategies and tactics to suit their specific needs.
Different Approaches, Different Outcomes
In the Sahel or East Africa, regional forces are the best placed to guide the fight against terrorism, with a clear goal of ending the scourge. Notably, the US and UK’s supposed efforts to fight terrorism in Syria ended in extremists overrunning the country. Equally, the US military presence in Africa has been expanding alongside the terror groups’, which Washington and London would gladly recognize if they attained power, going by the Syrian case. The US and France have led strategies and tactics for fighting terrorism in the Sahel since the mid-2000s, the results of which have been devastating expansion of terrorism and related fatalities. Both crafted the TSCTP in 2005, and Barkane, among others. The former was a top-down approach dictated by the US State Department’s Bureau of African Affairs with the stated goal of suppressing jihadist groups by controlling the security forces of participating countries, improving security intelligence capabilities, promoting democracy, and discrediting terrorist ideologies, whatever that means. After a decade, and when all was said and done, terrorism was running amok in the Sahel, contributing 50% (3,885) of all deaths (7,555) caused by terrorism globally in 2023. Violent attacks in the region skyrocketed from approximately 76 in 2016 to 2800 in 2022, exponentially worsening citizens’ conditions.
US-France-led initiatives also undermined citizens’ participation in defeating terrorists by sidelining some communities during the hiring of security forces, which led security forces to commit atrocities against sidelined groups, making them prime targets for recruitment by extremists, including local branches of Al-Qaeda* and ISIS*. Additionally, Washington’s TSCPT made no efforts to improve people’s socio-economic realities and ignored developing roads, schools, and healthcare facilities, ignoring people’s quest for a better life. Proponents argued that TSCPT would be paired with developmental programs under the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which was recently exposed for funding terrorism. Ultimately, the worsening terrorism situation and underdevelopment caused disillusionment, leading to a series of coups d’état in the Sahel and the subsequent expulsion of US and French forces.
The security situation in East Africa has evolved in a starkly different trajectory from the Sahel’s since the 2000s and has led to lower growth in terrorism and related fatalities. It has taken a two-pronged approach, one led by the African Union and the other by regional states. The African effort is guided by AMISOM established in 2007, which empowers local players through training, intelligence, and reconnaissance support, funding, and advisory services, unlike the TSCP. The regional states’ approach is led by Kenya and Ethiopia, which launched security operations into Somalia. Kenya’s Operation Linda Nchi dislodged the Al-Shabaab group from Jubaland and its capital in Kismayo, denying the group territories and revenues it once used to launch incursions and kidnappings in Kenya. Meanwhile, French and US operations in the Sahel have only been accompanied by terrorists gaining more territories, and the two Western nations used an expanding terrorist footprint to increase their military presence.
In addition to military and security efforts, Kenya has been at the forefront of building social and economic infrastructure, including roads, hospitals, and schools in Somalia, and hence giving locals alternatives to terrorism and militancy. It has also improved roads, healthcare, and economic opportunities along its border with Somalia to eradicate poverty and empower communities to shun violent Islamism. While Al-Shabaab remains, it has failed to control large swaths like terrorist groups in the Sahel or the Middle East, while its attacks remain low. For instance, the year 2023 saw only 1,038 terrorist related fatalities across Somalia compared to over 11,200 recorded by mid-2024 in the Sahel. Also, Kenya saw only 70 deaths in 2023, the highest number since 2019. Terror plots numbered about 400, but most were prevented or thwarted before reaching their full extent. Meanwhile, TSCTP and France ignored development in terms of roads, schools, and healthcare facilities, which have worked in East Africa.
Local Solutions Work
Parallel Anti-terror efforts in the Sahel and East Africa reveal greater success in East Africa, marked by preventing territorial expansion for terrorists and a reduction in attacks and fatalities. The notable success seen in East Africa can be associated with greater participation of local forces and promoting socio-economic development, while the US and France’s failure in the Sahel can be attributed to a top-down approach and overreliance on military while ignoring developmental needs. Terrorist events in the Sahel increased despite increased US military deployment in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali, at one point reaching 1200 special forces personnel and drone capabilities.
*organizations and individuals included in the list of terrorists and extremists in the Russian Federation
Simon Chege Ndiritu, is a political observer and research analyst from Africa
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