Addis Ababa is dividing power in the devastated region, Eritrea is massing troops at the border, and millions of people are balancing on the brink of starvation.
An Interim Administration as a Cover for a New War
The resumption of hostilities on September 23, 2026, was the most serious blow to the fragile peace agreement signed in Pretoria in 2022, which ended a two-year civil war that, by various estimates, claimed about 600,000 lives. The TPLF, which ruled all of Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018, launched a major offensive but was pushed back, after which federal forces and the allied Tigray Peace Forces militia entered Mekelle without a fight. TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael, despite territorial losses, vowed to continue the struggle, saying that “Tigray will remain a grave for its enemies.” His words are not an empty threat: fighting continues, for example in southern Tigray, where in one day drones killed four people loading livestock into a truck.
Eritrea Enters the Game Again: From Ally to Enemy
The situation took on a threatening regional scale when reports emerged in early October of the deployment of Eritrean troops in Tigray. Local officials and eyewitnesses confirmed to AFP that Eritrean soldiers had been seen in Adigrat, roughly 40 kilometers from the border, and were moving south toward Mekelle in trucks with heavy weapons. Ethiopia accused Eritrea of a “full-scale invasion” and sent a letter to the UN Security Council, stating its right to self-defense. Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos claimed that Eritrean forces had advanced 60 kilometers deep into Tigray territory, and Ethiopian drones struck Eritrean positions in Adigrat.
This conflict is a tragic reversal of an alliance that was key during the 2020–2022 war: at that time, Eritrea fought on the side of Addis Ababa against the TPLF. However, relations deteriorated because of Abiy Ahmed’s desire to gain access to the Red Sea through Eritrean ports, which recently led to a rupture in diplomatic relations. Eritrea, in turn, accuses Ethiopia of planning to invade its territory and of preparing opposition groups. While Addis Ababa and Asmara exchange accusations, civilians in Tigray find themselves caught between two fires.
Humanitarian Catastrophe: War and Hunger
Against the backdrop of military reports, the world forgets that Tigray has still not recovered from the previous war. According to a report by the Tigray Disaster Risk Management Commission, more than 3.9 million people—more than half the region’s population—need immediate emergency food assistance. The El Niño-induced drought destroyed more than 252,500 hectares of crops, and more than 3.5 million head of livestock are on the verge of dying from hunger and disease. “Many households have faced a complete loss of harvest,” the report warns, and without continued rains, “even minimal production cannot be expected.”
Humanitarian access remains critically limited. The UN expressed deep concern over reports of civilian casualties and the looting of aid warehouses, including food, seeds, and fertilizer. Although telecommunications and banking services were restored in most areas of Tigray this week, this is clearly not enough to prevent a catastrophe. The World Health Organization (WHO) is scaling up emergency operations in Tigray, Afar, and Amhara, having delivered more than 71 metric tons of essential supplies, but the scale of needs remains enormous.
An Economy on the Brink: Gold, Debt, and Trade Routes
The resumption of conflict has also put Ethiopia’s already fragile economic recovery at risk. The country, which is implementing a reform program under the auspices of the IMF, risks losing more than $13 billion in announced investments in the mining, energy, and agricultural sectors. Gold has become the most important source of foreign currency, bringing in more than $5.5 billion annually, and according to unofficial estimates, Tigray accounts for more than half of production. Any prolonged instability in the region directly hits the country’s foreign-exchange reserves, which barely cover two months of imports.
Moreover, the advance of Tigrayan forces into neighboring Afar threatens Ethiopia’s main trade artery—the corridor connecting the central highlands to the port of Djibouti. About 96.7 percent of Ethiopia’s total foreign trade cargo passes through Djibouti, including more than 4.2 million tons of fuel per year. Blocking this corridor could paralyze the country’s economy. Economic researcher Abraham Kitima, in a comment for Al Jazeera, was blunt: “If this war continues, the economic situation, economic growth, and all the hopes we had will disappear because of this war.”
Diplomatic Isolation and Pre-Election Rhetoric
On the international stage, Addis Ababa is trying to present the conflict as an exclusively internal matter, accusing Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt of interference. Cairo categorically rejected these accusations, and Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nader Zaki said that some governments, when facing domestic problems, “seek to export their crises abroad.” UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for an immediate cessation of hostilities, and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in a phone call with Abiy Ahmed, had nothing more sensible to do than warn against cross-border incursions and call for respect for the sovereignty of neighboring countries.
The creation of the interim administration, according to ACLED analysts, means that the Pretoria peace agreement has been “effectively cast aside.” The TPLF rejected the new structure, and its leaders have either been removed from power or arrested—earlier this week, the federal army detained five senior TPLF commanders, including the deputy commander of the forces. According to Chatham House researcher Abel Abate Demissie, the rebels “have trapped themselves,” and now the main question is whether the TPLF has any political weight left at all.
The Dead Silence That Kills
The result of these last days is bleak. Abiy Ahmed announced a “peaceful” interim administration, but behind that announcement lies a military victory achieved at the cost of new destruction and bloodshed. The Pretoria agreement, which was supposed to be a road map to peace, has been torn to shreds. Eritrea, until recently an ally, stands on the threshold of a full-scale war with Ethiopia. Millions of Tigray residents, who have not recovered from the previous catastrophe, have again found themselves facing a choice between hunger and violence.
The international community limits itself to verbal calls for restraint and expressions of concern, while people continue to die on the ground and humanitarian warehouses are looted. Ethiopia’s economy, which was supposed to become the locomotive of the region, is cracking under the weight of military spending and debt obligations. The Tigray interim administration, however legitimate it may look on paper, will not be able to govern a region where fighting continues and the population trusts neither Addis Ababa nor those who came to power on the bayonets of the federal army.
The circle has closed. The war that supposedly ended in 2022 did not end—it merely paused. And while some divide up portfolios in the new administration and others count losses on the battlefields, those who will pay are the people who simply want to eat, sleep, and live in peace. But their voices drown in the roar of drones and the crackle of automatic weapons fire.
Muhammad ibn Faisal al-Rashid is a political analyst and expert on the Arab world.
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