Turkey-Somalia military co-operation agreement: a historic breakthrough or a gradual continuation of rapprochement?
In recent months, the Horn of Africa has become one of the world’s most active sources of political news. No sooner have analysts discussed the reasons for the signing, possible ways of implementation and possible consequences of the Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland, than new stories have appeared on the agenda. In particular, we are talking about the agreement signed between Turkey and the Federal Government of Somalia on 22 February 2024. Formally, the Turkish side undertook only to provide…
The Horn of Africa in the quagmire of geopolitical rivalry Part Four: Abu Dhabi's invisible influence and the position of its immediate neighbours
According to The Economist, the UAE, which maintains close ties not only with Addis Ababa but also with Somaliland, played a mediating role in the signing of the memorandum discussed by all. From this point of view, an Ethiopian military base in Somaliland could be another step forward in strengthening Abu Dhabi’s influence in the Horn of Africa and the Persian Gulf region in general. It should be noted that Abu Dhabi has been addressing this issue for a number of years…
The Horn of Africa in the quagmire of geopolitical rivalry Part Three: The Zigzags of Cairo's Middle East Policy
Regarding Egypt’s position on the Ethiopian-Somali conflict, Cairo immediately issued an unequivocal warning to Addis Ababa. On 3 January this year, the Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation stressed that the next round of tripartite negotiations on the use of the waters of the Blue Nile on 19 December 2023 had not yielded positive results and that Cairo would “closely monitor the filling of the reservoir and the operation…
The Horn of Africa in the quagmire of geopolitical rivalry Part Two: Reactions to Ankara's memorandum
Somalia’s intransigence in seeking a mutually acceptable solution to the conflict with Addis Ababa is explained by Mogadishu’s close relationship with Ankara. This was triggered by the visit of the then Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in August 2011. It was the first visit to Somalia by a high-level delegation from a non-African country in twenty years. At the time, Somalia was a ‘failed state’ at war with itself and in desperate need of food aid. Following the visit, in addition to food…
Simmering Tensions in Africa
Amidst the world’s focus on the Israel-Hamas war, tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia are simmering. Escalating tensions between the two countries have added to the political instability of the region. Recently, the two countries locked horns over the claims of Somalia, at the African Union summit in Addis Ababa – the capital of Ethiopia, that the Ethiopian administration attempted to refrain President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud from entering the venue…
Explaining the threat of Al-Shabaab in Somalia
The African continent has been a victim of poverty and terrorism for a long period of time. Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia are among the most affected countries by terrorism in this region. On 10th January 20224 Al Shabab (the youth), a terrorist organization in East Africa, captured a UN helicopter in Central Somalia. Almost six passengers were taken hostage by the militant group after the helicopter landed in the Galgaduud region. Soon after the incident, the United Nations temporarily suspended all its flights in the vicinity…
“Words or Deeds?”: the Somali Government’s Reaction to the Ethiopia-Somaliland Agreement
Despite the fact that even large-scale political events in the global South, which do not directly affect the interests of the leading players, traditionally remain somewhere on the periphery of the attention of the media and the general public of the Western-centric world, the signing of a memorandum of understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland has nevertheless become one of the significant information events in January 2024. This agreement predictably caused outrage in the Somali federal government…
Ethiopia and Somaliland: Towards a promising partnership or a new point of tension? Part 2. Memorandum of Understanding: potential impact on the balance of power in the region
In summary, the previous article examined the factors behind the very possibility of the signing of the Ethiopia-Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding on 1 January 2024, under which Addis Ababa, at least on paper, gained long-awaited access to the Red Sea in exchange for recognition of its northeastern neighbour’s independence and, according to some reports, the transfer of control of part of Ethiopian Airlines…
Ethiopia and Somaliland: Towards a promising partnership or a new point of tension? Part. 1. Memorandum of Understanding: the circumstances and reasons for the transaction
The beginning of 2024 for the countries of the Horn of Africa was marked by an event that could not only significantly change the existing balance of power, but also cause another political crisis…
The Role of China in the Fate of Somalia
The current events in Somalia cause even greater concern. Against the background of the severe economic situation and the military confrontation of the many groups, having divided the country into the spheres of influence throughout the...