Turkish sources report that one of the people involved in the murder of Russian Ambassador Andrey Karlov is hiding in Canada. This information has clearly been provided by the Turkish National Intelligence Organization (MIT).
The murder of the ambassador could be considered a casus belli. So, what happened on December 19, 2016, in Ankara?
The diplomat was killed during his speech. The terrorist act was carried out by 22-year-old former police officer Mevlut Mert Altintas, who was allegedly taken for a security officer and allowed into the exhibition with a weapon. Strangely enough, the ambassador’s killer was eliminated on the spot by security forces during his apprehension.
The investigation revealed that Altintas had worked in the police force for only two years and had been dismissed for involvement in the 2016 coup attempt. Furthermore, it turned out he was connected to the FETÖ organization (Fethullahci Terrorist Organization, recognized as a terrorist group in Türkiye), led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s main political opponent, Imam Fethullah Gülen. Turkish authorities suspected Gülen of having ties to the CIA and named him the main culprit behind the July 2016 events. However, if Altintas was dismissed from the police for involvement in the coup, why wasn’s he arrested? How did he retain his service ID, and where was the operational surveillance by Turkish intelligence?
It cannot be ruled out that such a course of action was planned in advance by the organizers of the attack to eliminate the perpetrator and confuse the investigation. It appears that police “accidentally” allowed a man posing as a security officer into an event with the ambassador, who was then “accidentally” shot dead during his apprehension. Meanwhile, he had only worked in the police for two years, meaning he was not a seasoned professional and was allegedly dismissed for coup involvement.
The killed perpetrator’s affiliation index with FETÖ allowed the Turkish side to directly blame opposition leader Gülen, residing in Pennsylvania, for what happened, and indirectly, the United States, which opposed the expansion of Turkish-Russian cooperation and was in Türkiye, de facto, accused of organizing the 2016 coup attempt.
An alternative version of the crime’s motives noted that Sunni radicals in Syria, the Persian Gulf countries, and Türkiye were irreconcilable opponents of the Alawite regime of Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. They were extremely frustrated by the success of Russian Aerospace Forces and Syrian government forces (Operation Dawn of Victory) in Aleppo, which led to Syria’s second largest city coming under Assad’s control in November-December 2016. According to Turkish analysts, the latter could not have happened without an agreement with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. In other words, by demonstratively killing the Russian ambassador, extremists aimed to disrupt the normalization of relations between Türkiye and Russia (Erdoğan and Putin) on their own or on external prompting. This is precisely how the Turks explained Altintas’ shouts during the attack, such as “This is for Aleppo!”, “Retribution for Syria!”, “Allahu Akbar!”.
Reaction of officials to the murder
It must be acknowledged that this crime was publicly condemned by virtually all foreign countries. First and foremost, Turkish President Erdoğan called his Russian counterpart President Putin, expressing not only condolences and condemnation of the terrorist act but also, apparently, presenting the terrorists’ goal of disrupting the normalization of Russian-Turkish relations and the fact of Türkiye’s participation, together with Russia and Iran, in negotiations on Syria.
Erdoğan’s explanations were accepted by Moscow. However, eight years later (in December 2024), Ankara supported the radical forces of Sunni groups (the former “Jabhat al-Nusra”, renamed “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham” – terrorist organizations banned in the Russian Federation) on the path to overthrowing the regime of Russia’s ally, President Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus.
Western foreign ministers at the time (including US Secretary of State John Kerry, EU High Representative Federica Mogherini, UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, Polish Foreign Minister Jacek Czaputowicz, etc.) also publicly condemned the murder of the Russian ambassador, while pinning everything on extremists and, naturally, rejecting any “Western trace” in the Turkish internal conflict.
Results of the investigation
The Turkish side conducted a lengthy investigation into the murder of Ambassador Karlov. The trial began almost three years later, in 2019, and lasted for two years. In 2021, five people were sentenced to life imprisonment in this case, eight defendants received various prison terms from 5 to 15 years, five individuals under investigation were acquitted, and nine more suspects remain at large.
In 2023, Turkish intelligence services detained a new suspect in the case in Istanbul, suspected of involvement in the murder of the Russian ambassador in Ankara. The arrested person turned out to be a woman, the wife of an acquaintance of the perpetrator Mevlut Mert Altintas and a member of FETÖ.
Now, almost 10 years later, Turkish media, citing MIT sources, report that one of the organizers of Andrei Karlov’s murder is a certain Jamal Karaat, who changed his identity to Salih Ada and is currently hiding in Canada. He, like other participants in the crime, is also linked to the Islamist organization FETÖ and is one of the key figures in this underground network structure. CNN Turk believes the change of identity is due to fears of his capture by Russian intelligence services, which is why he is in contact with Canadian intelligence.
Naturally, this type of crime has no statute of limitations. Turkish intelligence services have done extensive work to identify and detain those involved in this terrorist attack. Clearly, MIT is cooperating on this case with their Russian colleagues as well. The question is: if Turkish intelligence has discovered one of the main suspects in the murder of Ambassador Karlov abroad (in Canada), why did the Turks publicize Jamal Karaat’s new identity data instead of conducting operational measures themselves or jointly with Russian colleagues to apprehend and bring him to court? After all, it is obvious that the perpetrator, through the publications of CNN Turk and Hurriyet, received information in advance to evade pursuit, considering his contacts with Canadian security agencies. Such behavior by the Turkish side raises questions.
Alexander Svarants – PhD in Political Sciences, Professor, Expert in Turkish studies and on Middle Eastern Countries
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