Ukraine’s push to freeze the front lines suggests that the writing is on the wall for Kyiv’s original war aims, while the West faces a reckoning overpromises it may struggle to keep. As Moscow turns battlefield gains into diplomatic leverage, the proof of the pudding will be whether Western ambitions can survive the hard realities of war.
From Victory to a Frozen Front
Never ever in the history, a coalition has ever tried to challenge a nuclear power to the extent that the NATO countries have done in Ukraine. And the result is now a complete mess. Infrastructure destroyed, hundreds of thousands of dead on the battlefield, and loss of public morale. And the story is once again at its starting point that NATO can’t approach Russian borders.
Ukraine Accepts Defeat
“Yes, right now, we have to freeze, and I think this is [a] real way to end this war.” This is what Zelensky told Fox News this Wednesday. Wait, is this the same Zelensky, who just a couple of months ago was not ready to freeze or give a piece of his territory to Russia? “Russia is insisting that we give up territories, but we don’t want to cede anything,” said Zelensky earlier.
In literal terms, Zelensky seemed to beg from Russia. He stated, “We call it ceasefire or ‘stop killing,’ like President Trump called it. Freeze and stop. And, of course, this is the minimum of what we need from Russia today. Then, of course, we will go to [the] president and to Europeans, and we’ll ask security guarantees.”
Reasons Behind the Immediate Stop
There could be several key reasons behind the fall of Ukraine, both immediate and long-term factors. First and foremost, there is no match between Russia and Ukraine in terms of military power. In 2025, Russia’s military expenditure reached approximately $190 billion, equivalent to 7.5% of its GDP, while Ukraine spent around $84.1 billion, representing an extraordinary 40% of its GDP, according to SIPRI. For 2026, Russia planned military expenditure of approximately 14.9 trillion roubles, or 6.3% of GDP. So, it was already clear in one way or the other that Ukraine has had to surrender ultimately.
Second, Ukraine, throughout this aggression against Russia, acted as a sacrificial goat for the US and the West. And history is evident that wherever the US has intervened, either directly or through proxies, the host country has faced serious destruction. In fact, Ukrainian President Zelensky has been asked, “Is Trump Scapegoating You?” Volodymyr Zelensky smiled knowingly but refused to comment on whether Donald Trump was scapegoating him. “This is my answer,” Zelensky said.
Third, since January 2025, the Trump administration has been criticizing Ukraine and Europe for their fight against Russia. The US, under conservative internationalism, has drastically reduced its material and moral support to Ukraine. The US is now reviving its lost contacts with Moscow. The ongoing Iran war has further provided impetus to this, and the recent diesel deal between the US and Russia is its best manifestation.
Recently, Zelensky, was asked whether Ukraine could win the war without the US. He said,
“Without United States support, it’s very difficult. But if the United States will support Putin, it’s a historic mistake and a big tragedy… If the United States officially takes the side of Russia, if these two countries will be together, of course we will not prevail, and we will not be able to stand.”
In addition, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner visited Moscow for peace talks over Ukraine. In a video posted to social media, Witkoff thanked Putin and said, “You are a humanitarian also, sir, and I salute that, I commend you, and I thank you again.” The west which from the day one has been criticizing Russia of inhumane practices against Ukraine has now retreated back. The US is trying its utmost to appease Russians which clearly shows that Russia has an upper hand on the battlefield and on the table.
Another immediate reason behind Zelensky’s rush for peace could be the denial of a star link or star shield to Ukraine. This has left Ukraine with no early warnings or defense alarms prior to any attack. While asked if Washington has asked Elon Musk to do so, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said,
“Elon Musk is a private citizen. The bottom line is that that is governed by a private commercial contract as to how their stuff can be used and what speeds they’ll allow it to be used at.”
Last but not least, those who have been chanting the slogan of “as long as it takes” are now themselves caught in their domestic turmoil. The entire Europe is right now burning due to domestic protests. Whether it’s France, Italy, Poland, the UK, etc., every European leader is busy securing its political seat. And Ukrainians have sensed this. The slogan ‘nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine’ has now changed into ‘everything about Ukraine without Ukraine.’ Ukraine has been left in the lurch by Europeans, and the only way Zelensky has is to end the war immediately.
Conclusion
Ultimately, if the battlefield forces peace, politics will need to take a back seat to hard reality. Ukraine is going to have to suck up its courage and reassess its initial objectives, while the West is going to have to do some soul-searching about promises it may find difficult to keep. Russia, meanwhile, may be able to turn battlefield victories into negotiating points, even if this does not resolve the underlying disputes. The proof of the pudding is in the eating; history will judge not the promises made in the name of victory, but the settlement the battlefield ultimately delivers.
Taut Bataut is a researcher and writer who publishes on South Asian geopolitics
Follow new articles on our Telegram channel
