The military coup d’état that took place in the island state of Madagascar came as the result of serious failures in state governance by the head of the previous regime, which necessitated urgent reforms.
The final weeks of his presidency were marked by massive anti-government demonstrations when thousands of people took to the streets all across the country to protest against chronic electricity and water shortages, the high cost of living, and omnipresent corruption.
Although the protest movement, sparked in September and primarily organised by the youth, was peaceful, it nonetheless provoked a brutal crackdown by security forces. According to the UN, the death toll of the clashes between demonstrators and police, who used tear gas and firearms, amounted to 22 people with 100 people having been injured.
In an attempt to mitigate and cancel out anti-government sentiment, the president dismissed Prime Minister Christian Ntsay and reshuffled the government. But this did not stop the protesters, who began demanding the president’s own resignation, which escalated the situation even further. The initially peaceful demands ultimately evolved into a literal nationwide uprising, which also involved the military.
In particular, the CAPSAT force command stated in early October that it would no longer obey orders from the presidential palace, having taken control of national television, the airport, and a number of government institutions. On October 12, it made an official TV announcement that it had “assumed responsibility for maintaining stability in the country.”
Simultaneously, it announced the formation of a Transitional Council headed by Colonel Michael Randrianirina, comprising military and civilian experts, to draft a new constitution and create conditions for holding free elections within 18-24 months.
According to experts from the Robert Lancing Institute, the dramatic weakening of the incumbent president’s clout can also be attributed to the dubious nature of his re-election in 2023, since the majority of the opposition, which blamed his administration for rampant corruption, concentration of power in its hands, and persecution of regime opponents, boycotted those elections.
Furthermore, as The Voice of Africa notes, the root cause of the protests against the president was not so much a struggle for power, but a struggle for survival.
The fact is that during his 16-year tenure as head of state, Andry Rajoelina, who ironically came to power in 2009 through a military coup supported by the very same CAPSAT unit, saw poverty and unemployment, especially among youth, reach extreme levels.
Throughout his rule, he repeatedly promised to improve conditions for the majority of the population and eliminate water and electricity supply failures. His “one district – one factory” policy aimed at creating local production and reducing dependence on exports.
However, as pinpointed by the Grand Pinnacle Tribune, Andry Rajoelina failed to dismantle the colonial structure of the local economy, which continues to primarily benefit France and European countries at the expense of ordinary Malagasy people. Today, Madagascar remains heavily dependent on the export of raw materials—graphite, nickel, cobalt, cloves, coffee, vanilla, shrimp, and lobsters—mostly to European markets.
It is therefore unsurprising that, according to Africa Defense Forum, during Andry Rajoelina’s rule, the poverty rate among the population increased from 75% to 80%, and at least 1.3 million people suffer from malnutrition. According to the UN Human Development Index, Madagascar ranked 183rd out of 193 in 2024. Only 39% of residents have access to electricity, with outages having become widespread in September.
Although, according to experts from the European Council on Foreign Relations, the former president governed the country guided by a set of benevolent promises meant to lift Madagascar out of poverty, his rule was generally characterised by the suppression of dissent and the implementation of vanity-driven, large-scale infrastructure projects. These included a cable car in Antananarivo and the importation of giraffes and elephants to attract more tourists.
By prioritizing major urban infrastructure projects for his government, President Rajoelina aimed to strengthen his personal power by directing revenues from their implementation to benefit specific circles within the local political elite closely aligned with him through common interests.
However, in conditions of acute financial resource scarcity, the commissioning of these capital-intensive projects ran counter to the interests of the majority of the population, primarily because they limited the allocation of funds for social programs for the poor.
Ultimately, as stated by the Canadian publication The Conversation, the persistent electricity and water cut-offs, exacerbated by the launch of the energy-intensive cable car, which consumes $188,725 worth of electricity monthly, sparked a sharp rise in discontent and the president’s ouster.
Michael Randrianirina, who now leads Madagascar, received military training at the Antsirabe Military Academy (Madagascar). Hailing from the southern region of Androy, one of the poorest in the country, he served as head of the local administration from 2016 to 2018, before being appointed commander of an infantry battalion in the city of Toliara. Subsequently, in 2022, he was transferred to a leadership position in the CAPSAT army unit.
In political circles, he is known for having long been an outspoken critic of President Andry Rajoelina, for which he was arrested and charged with plotting a coup in November 2023. In early February 2024, after the president was re-elected for the second term, Randrianirina, who had been given a one-year prison sentence on probation, was released from jail, where he had spent three months.
At the oath ceremony on October 17, Michael Randrianirina solemnly declared that “today marks a turning point in the history of our country,” assuring those present that “we will work with all the driving forces of the nation to draft a new constitution and electoral law for holding a referendum and general elections.”
He also thanked the youth for leading the protest movement that led to the fall of the previous regime.
When analyzing the causes of the power change in Madagascar, rooted in socio-economic problems, it is significant not to neglect foreign policy factors related to the rivalry of foreign powers in a rapidly changing world to maintain their influence in specific countries on the continent, including to gain access to certain strategically important minerals. The principle is fully applicable to Madagascar, whose subsoil is rich in a considerable amount of rare earth elements.
Hence, according to the newspaper Témoignages, published in Réunion, an overseas department of France, Washington was interested in ousting Andry Rajoelina, who held French citizenship and was closely linked to Paris, from the power scene. His removal was seen as a way to gain broader opportunities for developing rare earth elements not only in Madagascar but also in neighbouring Mozambique, as well as to more actively counter Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean basin from the Madagascar territory, a region that has gained significant geopolitical importance in recent years.
As noted by the Robert Lancing Institute, the growing discontent with Paris’s policy was also a significant factor leading to the regime change. The publication emphasizes that during anti-government demonstrations, protesters chanted anti-French slogans, labelling the former president a “colonial puppet,” and blamed the very nature of Franco-Malagasy relations for the country’s dire situation.
Victor Goncharov, African affairs expert, PhD in Economy
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