As Business Day, a Nigerian newspaper based in Lagos, the Nigerian capital, notes, US attempts to pressure Niger’s military leadership to “distance itself from Russia”, combined with an arrogant attitude towards long-standing partners, have ultimately had a counterproductive effect, leading to a serious strain in relations with one of its key allies in the region and an equally serious blow to the hegemon’s prestige…

On 16 March this year, Niger’s military government announced the cancellation of its military cooperation agreement with the United States regarding the status of US Department of Defense personnel and civilians on Nigerian territory. In a statement on national television, Amadou Abdramane, a spokesman for Niger’s military leadership, said the agreement was imposed on Niger in 2012 in violation…

As for China, the second global player in the region, although it has not openly interfered in Ethiopian affairs until recently, its weight and influence are very much felt here and are likely to increase. The American financial group Morgan Stanley estimates that the total cost of China’s “One Belt, One Road” project will rise to $1.2-1.3 trillion by 2027 alone. As Beijing sees the Horn of Africa as the “gateway to Africa” in the implementation of this project, Ethiopia, as the continent’s second…

In the current situation, it seems that the US, following Barack Obama’s African policy of “leading from behind”, seeing the willingness of Turkey, Egypt, Somalia, Eritrea and Djibouti to oppose the plans of Abiy Ahmed and Muse Bihi, decided not to openly intervene in the process themselves, but to let the leaders of these countries deal with the Ethiopian prime minister, who had become unpredictable in his foreign policy…

Ethiopia is a country that is one of the largest economies in Africa and the second largest in terms of population (1st Nigeria). Ethiopia has recently found itself at the centre of a geopolitical confrontation between the world’s leading powers, the US and China, and regional powers in the Horn of Africa. This confrontation is linked to the struggle for control of the strategic sea route from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean. Over the past three decades, Ethiopia has been not only one of the closest US allies in Africa, but also the main recipient of American aid on the continent and a pillar…

According to The Economist, the UAE, which maintains close ties not only with Addis Ababa but also with Somaliland, played a mediating role in the signing of the memorandum discussed by all. From this point of view, an Ethiopian military base in Somaliland could be another step forward in strengthening Abu Dhabi’s influence in the Horn of Africa and the Persian Gulf region in general. It should be noted that Abu Dhabi has been addressing this issue for a number of years…

Regarding Egypt’s position on the Ethiopian-Somali conflict, Cairo immediately issued an unequivocal warning to Addis Ababa. On 3 January this year, the Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation stressed that the next round of tripartite negotiations on the use of the waters of the Blue Nile on 19 December 2023 had not yielded positive results and that Cairo would “closely monitor the filling of the reservoir and the operation…

Somalia’s intransigence in seeking a mutually acceptable solution to the conflict with Addis Ababa is explained by Mogadishu’s close relationship with Ankara. This was triggered by the visit of the then Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in August 2011. It was the first visit to Somalia by a high-level delegation from a non-African country in twenty years. At the time, Somalia was a ‘failed state’ at war with itself and in desperate need of food aid. Following the visit, in addition to food…

The already tense situation in the Horn of Africa has escalated sharply since the beginning of the year. On 1 January, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signed a memorandum of understanding with the president of the self-proclaimed republic of Somaliland, Muse Bihi Abdi, under which Ethiopia will receive a 50-year lease on a 20-kilometre stretch of the Red Sea coast near the port of Berbera for the establishment of a commercial hub and, in the future, a military base…

France has suffered another geopolitical setback in Africa. On December 2, Burkina Faso and Niger announced their withdrawal from all G5 Sahel bodies, an institutional framework initiated by the leaders of Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Mali, Niger and Chad in 2014 and finally formed in 2017. On December 6, the Presidents of Mauritania and Chad also announced their withdrawal from the organization. Among the reasons for withdrawing from the alliance cited by the military leaders of the first two countries was the organization’s inability to effectively solve not only economic…

Immediately after the death of Chadian President Idriss Déby, who died in April 2021 from wounds sustained in fighting with rebels in the north of the country, the military announced the dissolution of parliament and government and the establishment of a Transitional Military Council headed by his son, thirty-seven-year-old General Mahamat Idriss Déby. In doing so, the military ignored the constitutional provision that upon the death of the head of state, the presidency is temporarily transferred to the president of the National Assembly, who within 90 days must hold…

After months of tensions and hostile statements from both sides, the rivalry between the Sudanese army, led by Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the chairman of the Sudanese Sovereign Council serving as president, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group led by his former deputy on the Sovereign Council, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (alias Hemedti), erupted into open armed clashes on 15 April this year. At the heart of the current crisis, notes the Arab Centre for Policy Studies in Qatar, is the ongoing struggle between the two aforementioned…