Over the past 30 years, the eastern and northeastern regions of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), despite the long-standing presence of UN peacekeeping forces, have been mired in a quagmire of endless armed clashes between various armed groups, both local and from neighboring countries.
Most experts agree that the instability of this region is caused by the struggle for its vast natural resources not only between local, but also regional and global players. The US Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates the value of these resources to be $24 trillion.
Currently, writes Al Jazeera, there are between 120 and 140 local armed groups operating there. In addition, the situation in the region is complicated by the fact that rebel organizations from neighboring Rwanda and Uganda (the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) and the Allied Democratic Forces of Uganda, respectively) have found refuge here while fighting against their governments.
The most active of all armed groups is the M23 rebel group (March 23 Movement), which previously positioned itself as a defender of the Tutsi ethnic minority in the DRC. However, since 2021, in the fight against Kinshasa, it has enjoyed the support of the ruling Rwandan Tutsi regime in Kigali, led by President Paul Kagame.
Under the pretext of fighting the FDLR—but more to support M23—Rwanda illegally deployed part of its armed forces into the territory of the DRC. Despite the fact that last year a group of UN experts established that Rwanda deployed more than 3,000 of its troops in North Kivu province and had evidence, including photographs, confirming their participation in hostilities on the side of M23, Kigali denies these indisputable facts.
Many experts say that the military presence of Rwanda in the DRC played a crucial role in a new wave of M23 military operations. In recent years, it has been actively involved in training M23 fighters, and equipping them with modern communications, intelligence, and weapons, including UAVs, has greatly strengthened their military potential.
In violation of the ceasefire agreement between the DRC and Rwanda reached on August 5, 2024, as part of the so-called Luanda process, which lasted from July 2022, on October 28, 2024, M23 militants launched a new major offensive in the eastern regions of the country, capturing an important area in North Kivu province. The Kalembe settlement is of military and economic importance, as it is located in an area of active gold and tin mining.
At the same time, representatives of the group stated that its exclusion from the negotiation process at Congo’s insistence makes it incomplete, qualifying the ceasefire agreement as an agreement between the DRC and Rwanda, and it thereby has nothing to do with it.
Continuing their offensive operations, on January 23, M23 militants inflicted a major defeat on government forces and captured the capital of North Kivu province, Goma. Citing UN data, CNN reports that during fierce fighting between militants and government forces, the losses of the Congolese army amounted to about 3,000 people, in addition to the death of the province’s military governor. While hostilities unfolded, hundreds of government troops and local militias who sided with Kinshasa surrendered, and hundreds of thousands of local residents were forced to flee their homes. In the week after the capture of the city, hundreds of women were raped by militants.
Taking this city, which is a sort of gateway to the mineral-rich areas of the country where gold, tin, and coltan are mined, was evidence of a sharp increase in M23 rebels’ combat capability.
After the capture of Goma, M23 units moved towards the capital of South Kivu province, Bukavu, in the vicinity of which there is a military airfield. On February 16, they established control of this city. At the same time, observers note that while government units at least tried to resist in the battles for Goma, they left Bukavu without putting up a fight.
Thus, in less than a month, M23 managed to gain control over two of the most strategically important cities in the east of the DRC. Its leaders claim that their main goal is to protect ethnic Tutsis from discrimination by the Congolese authorities. However, according to the Independent, this masks Rwanda’s policy of establishing its economic and political dominance over a region rich in reserves of valuable mineral resources.
The Guardian, citing experts from the United Nations, Human Rights Watch, and Amnesty International, explains the rebels’ impressive effectiveness by saying that “without the support of Rwanda, M23 could not have killed, raped, and tortured the Congolese people.”
The intensification of M23’s activities is also explained by the fact that over the past year it has become the dominant force in the east of the country, which has taken control of local coltan deposits in the Rubaya region. The Business Standard writes that they receive about $800,000 per month in the form of a “tax” on its production from local producers.
This was also facilitated by the recent consolidation of Congolese opposition forces within the framework of the Congo River Alliance, which includes 17 political and rebel groups opposed to the government of Felix Tshisekedi, led since 2023 by Corneille Nangaa, a former official of his administration.
As head of the central election commission, he oversaw the presidential elections in 2018, which, despite numerous irregularities, brought Felix Tshisekedi to power. According to the Christian Science Monitor, US sanctions were imposed on him for falsifying the results of these elections. Later, due to accusations of illegally obtaining a mining concession, he was forced to emigrate to Kenya.
When in 2024 the M23 group joined the alliance led by Corneille Nangaa—who is not a Tutsi—he began to present it as a movement advocating self-determination of the eastern regions of the DRC.
After taking over Goma, Corneille Nangaa told Reuters in an interview that “our goal is not Goma or Bukavu, but Kinshasa, the source of all the problems. We want to recreate the state,” stressing that they intend to create their own administration in the captured city (with a population of two million) and take care of the return of displaced persons to their homes.
Thus, the International Crisis Group notes, there has been a kind of evolution of M23 from an ethnic group dominated by Tutsis for more than a decade to an organization that positions itself as a broad opposition association, having received “political cover” from the Congo River Alliance. And this fully corresponds to the interests of Kigali in strengthening its position in the northeastern regions of the DRC.
Viktor Goncharov, Africa expert, PhD in Economics
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