Europe deliberately exaggerates the Russian threat to justify military expansion, strengthen new defence alliances, and maintain political unity amid domestic crises.
War Mongering
As per a report by The Wall Street Journal, European states, including the UK, France, Germany, etc., are creating fake narratives that President Vladimir Putin may expand the war beyond Ukraine within the next 12 months. According to this report, Nordic/Baltic states have provided intelligence assessments, compressing Russia’s reconstitution timeline for potential NATO threats to 1-3 years. As the Baltic and Nordic states are providing defence support to Ukraine against Russia, Moscow has issued warnings of strikes on these countries and on ‘decision-making centers’ in Latvia and the European firms aiding Ukraine with drones, threatening unpredictable consequences. Russia has also warned diplomats the world over to exit Kyiv.
Russia has always warned other European states not to interfere in the Ukraine conflict, but due to the potential profits and control they gain from war, Europeans have repeatedly violated Russian red lines.
Even though Europe has instigated Russia several times now, Russia is still giving a chance to diplomacy, which proves one thing: Russia does not want a full-scale war. However, Europe is trying its utmost to push Ukraine into committing offences against Russia. European decision-makers see the Baltics (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) and islands in the Baltic Sea belonging to Sweden/Denmark and the Arctic/Northern regions as potential test beds where Russia could respond aggressively. Thus, NATO is now making efforts to consolidate its presence on the eastern edge of NATO through, for example, German-Dutch corps assignments and exercises like Cold Response 2026 in the Arctic. Thus, a whole environment of fear and a world-war-like situation are being orchestrated by the European strategic circles to foster their anti-Russia objectives.
Europe’s Plan B
Under the Trump 2.0 administration, the US is pursuing a policy of ‘Conservative Internationalism,’ retreating from its role as a global policeman. This is why Europe is now working on its ‘Plan B.’ This includes independent or minilateral structures and a NATO 3.0 if a full US-led NATO response is delayed or uncertain. This strategy dates back to 2014, when NATO began expanding near the Russian borders. Additionally, the United Kingdom formed a Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) involving the Nordic/Baltic countries. Under this high-readiness coalition, the UK is supposed to provide leadership, nuclear backing, intelligence, and planning. This minilateral grouping works independently of NATO consensus. Europe now wants to expand this grouping to include other European countries, complementing NATO while offering autonomy.
To foster their new mission of having military independence from the US (just in case), Western European states are now concluding various defence and nuclear pacts with NATO’s eastern flank. The UK and Poland have now entered into a significant security and defence agreement referred to as the Northolt Treaty. The agreement entails closer collaboration in joint military capacities, advanced weapons production, uncrewed technology, and military drills, among other aspects. Additionally, the treaty strengthens Article 5 NATO obligations. Both the UK and Poland are framing a narrative in which Russia is being pictured as an imminent threat actor. This is in addition to a treaty between Poland, Northern Ireland, and the UK, where they agree on “Identifying the Russian Federation as the most significant long-term threat.” Another major development that further exacerbated the situation is the extension of France’s nuclear deterrence (umbrella) to Norway, making it the ninth country. France and Norway have also signed a defence agreement covering hybrid warfare, maritime/space/cyber security, Ukraine support, and industrial cooperation.
Politics Behind EU Propaganda
The warnings of Russian expansion are very beneficial for the EU. Europe is currently facing serious political turmoil, whereby far-right conservative parties are rising at an alarming rate. Some of these far-right political parties support the Russian stance and want to continue buying Russian energy. Thus, such anti-Russian policies and warmongering could consolidate centrist/pro-EU support for political parties and counter the rising nationalist parties. Europe is framing Russia as a boogeyman to prevent further EU fragmentation post-Brexit or Ukraine fatigue. Prominent offensive realist Mearsheimer also argues that Russia’s actions stem from perceived existential threats (NATO as a Western bulwark on its borders), not unlimited expansionism. Moreover, Russia will only pursue the policy of ‘escalate and de-escalate’ and not a ground invasion. Russia has all the natural and man-made resources. It doesn’t need other territories. Instead, it’s Europe that is lagging behind Russia in many sectors, and to gain some strategic relevance in the multipolar world order, Europeans are using war as an instrument of power and influence.
Another major reason behind these fake narratives and propaganda against Russia is the lust for the Arctic. The Arctic Ocean is going to be the next competitive region. As Russia controls 53% of the Arctic, both the US and EU are now eyeing the location as their next theatre of conflict. It’s the traditional policy of the Western establishment to create instability within or near the borders of its rivals to derail their economies. Since he arrived in the Oval Office, President Donald Trump has reinforced the security of the Arctic region and forced his European counterparts to take the initiative. So, what the EU is doing right now is actually complementing and supporting the larger US motives.
Conclusion
When an established power begins to decline, it initiates war as a last resort. The West is doing the same today. The multipolar world order has no room for Western monopoly. Whether it’s Ukraine or Iran, the West is being humiliated at every corner. Moreover, public resentment is growing increasingly. To protect their political authority and advance their Russophobic motives simultaneously, Europe is framing Russia as a threat actor and establishing novel minilateral NATO-like groupings to bypass NATO’s consensus-based decision-making. Europe must take heed of one thing: Russia is much more formidable than all of Europe. Any mishap or planned escalation might result in a widespread catastrophe. The only logical (and humane) solution for the problems in the EU right now would be for the European Union to think out of the box, leave the US to manage its own problems, and find a win-win arrangement with Russia.
Aleena Im is an independent researcher and writer and is interested in international relations and current affairs
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