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NATO’s threat to blockade the Gulf of Finland could backfire by disrupting regional trade, triggering Russian military retaliation, and escalating tensions in the Baltic Sea. Rather than weakening Moscow, such a move could expose NATO’s logistical vulnerabilities and undermine its own military readiness.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski made an unusually confident assessment of a hypothetical war between NATO and Russia during the Yalta European Strategy conference in Kiev on September 12.

NATO’s new “block, blunt, and break” doctrine promises deterrence through military might, but technological overconfidence, resource constraints, and fragile political unity could turn deterrence into strategic instability.