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Debt Trap or Strategic Infrastructure? The Extension of Kenya’s SGR to Uganda

Simon Chege Ndiritu, March 26, 2026

In the absence of Chinese loans, the Kenyan and Ugandan governments have sought an alternative financing model for the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR). This demonstrates their commitment to the railway as a strategic regional infrastructure project.

Uganda Standard Gauge Railway

Launching Kisumu-Malaba SGR Line

On March 21, 2026, Kenya’s and Uganda’s presidents launched the extension of Kenya’s SGR from Naivasha to Kisumu and Malaba, paving the way for future extension to Uganda. This phase is being restarted 6 years after the Chinese government declined to fund it through loans that were then issued through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It is estimated to cost $5.5 billion, a sum that will be obtained through securitization. When completed, the SGR will connect Kenya’s capital to Uganda, enhancing a transport network that also connects Rwanda, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and South Sudan to the Port of Mombasa, reducing travel time and costs. Another project of regional significance that is currently underway is the Mombasa-Tanga-Bagamoyo coastal road, which will enhance social and economic integration between Kenya and Tanzania. The ongoing infrastructural development by Kenya points to significant decentering of its traditional Western allies, the UK, and the US, which only emphasize shared security and intelligence engagements while backgrounding developmental needs of this African country. This paper looks into how the SGR project in Kenya, which the West framed as “China’s debt trap,” is in reality a strategically important infrastructure project for the region and not China’s financial trap.
China now appears to be investing in and contributing the technology needed to accomplish a project that has been proposed by the African countries involved

Suspension of BRI Loans and a 6-Year Hiatus in SGR Construction

The Chinese BRI initiative in Africa saw the Asian economic giant funding large infrastructure projects, including over 600 kilometers of SGR linking Mombasa to the capital, Nairobi, before extending further to Naivasha in 2019. However, Western think tanks would launch smear campaigns, terming China’s infrastructure loans as a ploy to entrap African countries with debt and, in turn, turn the debt into leverage. The observation that some of the projects exceeded budget projections was used to support this narrative while selectively concealing the reality that some corrupt Kenyans had manipulated procurement to steal some of the money. The cost overruns observed, coupled with negative reviews from Western spin masters, created a lingering possibility that some African leaders may decline to repay Chinese loans. These fears may have contributed to the Asian nation’s suspension of the issuance of some large infrastructure loans to some African countries, which led to the suspension of some phases of Kenya’s SGR project back in 2019, when the project was about 340 km short of the Kenya-Uganda border. However, this suspension has revealed a profound aspect of China’s BRI projects by bringing to the fore how China had initially sought and funded projects of monumental strategic significance to African economies. The Kenyan government has sought seed capital and proceeded to securitize the project such that Chinese resources are now used as investments and not loans. Therefore, SGR no longer looks like a Chinese project and has successfully shed the tag of “China’s debt trap.” China now appears to be investing in and contributing the technology needed to accomplish a project that has been proposed by the African countries involved.

Is SGR Really a Debt Trap?

Kenya’s SGR, as a component of BRI, which some in the West termed as China’s trap for Africans, has proven to be a strategic piece of regional infrastructure, notable in how its extension to the Ugandan border was witnessed by presidents of both countries on March 21, 2026. Analyses presented by Kenya’s Ministry of Transport on March 21, 2026, demonstrated how the new railway line was designed to revive the towns that were founded and thrived after the colonial railway line was built by the British in the early 20th century. The colonial line had been degraded over time and is no longer in use, leading to a decline of economic activity in the towns and settlements it served.

Unlike the old railway line, which was oriented towards extracting raw materials such as minerals, coffee, and cotton from Britain’s colonies to Mombasa port for further shipping to the UK, the new line will facilitate two-way movement of people and products among nations with deep cultural and economic ties across East Africa. The SGR line is planned to unlock new economic activities and facilitate the expansion of commerce across the region while also providing connectivity to the ocean trade routes. Unlike the first line that ended in Uganda, the new SGR is also planned to extend to DRC, South Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi, and hence catalyze future economic integration across East Africa, as expressed in an article published in the Star Newspaper.

Comparing BRI and Western-Initiated Projects

The SGR is many times better than the West’s neocolonial projects, such as the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), as the latter is primarily created to facilitate the extraction and export of Uganda’s crude oil. EACOP is designed to exclusively transport Uganda’s crude to a Tanzanian port for export in a process that precludes value addition in Uganda, which will disproportionately benefit a Western transnational firm, TotalEnergies. The crude pipeline is designed to curtail Uganda’s ability to develop oil refinery capacity and petrochemical industries, which would enable the East African country to reap more economic benefits from its crude. Also, this project lacks capital mobility, as it can only be used to transport a specific kind of crude oil and in one direction, such that it can never be useful to Ugandans in any other way. Despite EACOP’s extractive orientation, Western pundits have spared it from any criticism, instead focusing on making unfounded claims against BRI projects in Africa.

Projects initiated under BRI continue proving useful even when China has withdrawn its loans. For instance, completion of SGR provides wider capital mobility over EACOP as it can be used to move a wide range of goods and also people. It can transport people, containers, and tanks, including those with pressurized gases, giving countries involved a wide range of options. It holds the key to facilitating the functionality of existing infrastructure, including by removing some containerized cargo from highways and hence easing both traffic jams and degradation of roads. Also, if SGR is expanded to connect DRC, South Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi to the Kenya-Uganda line, Kampala will find itself at the center of this network and will have an unparalleled opportunity to cheaply conduct trade with the rest of the region.

 

Simon Chege Ndiritu is a political observer and research analyst from Africa

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