The cases in both countries leave young Africans without ways of influencing government formation or policy development, making it hard to convince young people that elections are inherently better, as the exercise in Tanzania is turning out to have been a sham.
A Coup and an Election
A Coup in Madagascar and Its Results
In October 2025, the elected government of Madagascar, headed by Andrey Rajoelina, fell after prolonged youth protests. Consequently, the commander of an elite military unit was sworn in as the new president. The young people precipitating this collapse protested the increasing incidences of power outages and water shortages, especially in the cities, which indicates the low level of development for a country that has been independent since 1960. Madagascar had 7 coups between 1960 and 2017, meaning the latest was the 8th, and these events have been blamed for creating instability that hampered development. This political volatility has been blamed for the country’s worrying poverty status, where 75% of the people (reaching up to 79.9% in rural areas) live below the national poverty line, according to the World Bank. Also, Madagascar has one of the lowest Human Development Index (HDI) scores of approximately 0.528 and ranks at 183 out of 193 countries. Therefore, the idea that young people were justified in demanding development and could not wait for the next elections is defensible. Their protests and resulting coup reflect their thought that the mode through which governments have been rising to power was flawed. While International bodies condemned the undemocratic transfer of power in Madagascar, they have reacted mildly to Tanzania’s recent election, which was unfree and unfair.
An Election in Tanzania, and Its Results
On October 29, a presidential election was held in Tanzania, after which the incumbent was declared the winner and sworn in during a military parade. Protests and violence endured for days, leading to the deaths of an unverified number of people. Anadolou News Agency, quoting opposition and rights groups, reported that 3000 people had been killed by police by November 8, 2025. This number, while unverified, should not be dismissed, considering that the government muzzled the media and switched off the internet during and after elections, which suggested intent to perform extrajudicial acts. Remarkably, an undated video circulating online shows a Tanzanian police boss boasting that President Samia Suluhu did not win because people voted, but because police have guns; a significant number of people may have been killed to win the election. One point that comes to the fore is that the election was not staged to allow citizens to set up a representative government but to allow armed forces to impose a leader.
Tanzania’s electoral body announced that the incumbent garnered over 97% of close to 32 million votes reportedly cast out of 37.6 million registered voters, which shows how shambolic the exercise had been. As Reuters reported, the reported voter turnout was grossly unconvincing, since many witnesses and video evidence showed nearly empty polling stations. Additionally, media houses had reported that the turnout was particularly low. For context, the last election held in 2020 saw the winner garnering only 12.5 million. The 2025 election was characterized by a low turnout and even lower opportunity to vote, as some polling stations were inaccessible due to protests, while others were destroyed altogether. In other locations, the government implemented security clampdowns, which artificially suppressed voting, making the process non-representative.
Also, Suluhu’s victory appeared hollow and undemocratic since the state had arrested and detained the leader of the main opposition, Tundu Lissu, for treason charges, while the justice system delayed sentencing, which locked him out of elections. Remarkably, Tundu Lisu had been shot 16 times back in 2017, a crime that some argued was politically motivated, while the state did not arrest or charge any culprits. The government also barred the second most popular opposition figure from vying, leaving a list of unknown contestants who barely campaigned.
Questions have been raised about how possible it was for the electoral body to tally the votes cast at the polling station and aggregate the results in only 2 days under an internet blackout and restriction of movements. Communication between party agents, election observers, and electoral officials could have been impossible without an internet connection, while moving around physically was hard due to protests. Therefore, it is hard to verify if the national tally reflected the votes cast, also because ballot stuffing was reported by an observation mission from the AU. The AU mission reported that some voters were given multiple ballot papers, which they cast into ballot boxes, a practice that was common in Zanzibar, where only the presidential election was being held, and party agents were absent. The mission added that observers were expelled after 5 minutes, making it possible that malpractices intensified after the observers left. Similarly, SADC reported that its observers were expelled from tallying centers, meaning that the results announced could not be linked back to votes cast.
Going Forward
It is clear that coups or elections in themselves do not guarantee better outcomes for citizens. While Madagascar had 7 coups between 1960 and 2017, which have created political volatility blamed for low development, Tanzania has never had a coup, which should have provided political stability and supported economic development. Tanzania’s poverty and HDI figures are not significantly better than Madagascar’s, despite earning about 8 times more in revenue from exporting minerals. For instance, the country earned $4.1 billion and 6.3 billion for the years ending in January 2025 and 2025, respectively, while Madagascar received only $832 million for 2024. Despite being endowed with minerals such as gold, natural gas, and tanzanite, it has only slightly better poverty records, with up to 49% of its population living below the poverty line, and an HDI score of 0.555. Hence, young people desiring representative governments to drive development may be disillusioned, with both coups and elections failing to achieve development. Therefore, the main aim of young Africans should be to insist that governments in place deliver development, as transitions through whichever means do not guarantee better outcomes.
Simon Chege Ndiritu, is a political observer and research analyst from Africa
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