Türkiye remains hopeful of bettering relations with the United States and ties the potential for positive changes in bilateral relations to President Donald Trump. There are still, however, serious contradictions between Washington and Ankara.
The Turkish doctrine of neo-Ottomanism and neo-pan-Turanism in the Middle East, the Balkans, and the post-Soviet space is getting reviews in the United States. Washington does not accept the formation of a multipolar world and thus perceives Turkish ambitions of a post-imperial revival critically.
The United States remains dissatisfied with the development of Turkish-Russian and Turkish-Chinese cooperation (primarily in the field of military, technical and energy). The worsening economic crisis and the devaluation of the Turkish lira are increasing Türkiye’s dependence on the United States, as Ankara cannot rely on preferential loans and external investments without the approval of the Federal Reserve.
In its struggle for power, the Erdoğan regime has escalated relations with the leader of the Nurcular network of Islamic organizations, Fethullah Gulen, whose activities were, in a sense, coordinated by US foreign policy institutions. Despite multiple appeals from Erdoğan, Washington has not extradited Islamic preacher Gulen to Ankara.
It is possible that post-Soviet Transcaucasia and Central Asia may serve as new arenas for regional contradictions between the United States and Türkiye. The Washington Agreement of August 8 between Azerbaijan and Armenia allows the United States to gain access to the territory of Armenia (the “Trump Route” project) and control the flow of goods from East to West. However, if the United States had previously considered Türkiye a NATO operator in the region, then it will now try to take control of Transcaucasia on its own.
The meeting between the Turkish and US presidents on September 25 did not bring Erdoğan the expected breakthrough in relations with Washington. Following the summit, Türkiye signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with the United States, signed a contract for the purchase of 250 American Boeing aircraft, and, together with Arab leaders, agreed to Trump’s plan for a truce in the Gaza Strip. Nonetheless, Erdoğan has so far failed to resolve key issues on the “military deal,” mitigating contradictions with Israel in Syria and energy cooperation with Russia.
During the visit, Erdoğan expected the head of the White House to ensure support for the legitimate process of transferring power in Ankara during the upcoming elections but was met only with disagreements within the country.
Some experts, such as former Azerbaijani Ambassador Arif Mammadov and Turkish journalist Hussein Gunay, believe that Erdoğan’s visit to the United States was a failure because he did not receive anything noteworthy. In turn, Erdoğan does not need the legitimacy of his power (the Turkish people have given him this right). However, the constitutional term limit that prevents him from running again forces the Turkish leader to prepare a successor.
Erdoğan does not want to give power to the opposition (particularly the Republican People’s Party). To this end, he has now managed to deal with the main pro-Western opponents (the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yavas). Some think that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, relying on Eastern logic, is trying to preserve the authoritarian regime in Türkiye and transfer power not just to a representative of the Justice Party he heads, but to one of his family members (either his son Bilal or son-in-law Alparslan Bayraktar).
Perhaps at the meeting with Trump in the United States, the issue of a successor was also discussed. However, after his visit to Washington, by a strange coincidence, information was leaked in Türkiye. The leaked materials included a recording of NTV Haber correspondent Hussein Gunay’s commenting freely on this trip, where there was some criticism about the failure of negotiations and contradictions between Erdoğan’s possible successors, namely Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, the president’s son and son-in-law. Such a scandal led to the immediate resignation of journalist Gunay.
Hakan Fidan, who went through the various stages of becoming a statesman (from heading TIKA to MIT and the foreign ministry), is a most prepared and accomplished politician; his service to the Turkish state is recognized, especially pertaining to the Kurdish issue and eliminating the PKK, regime change in Syria and bringing to power the pro-Turkish protege Ahmed al-Sharaa, the military success of the Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem in Nagorno-Karabakh and the geopolitical breakthrough in the Turkic world, the retention of Turkish positions in Libya, etc.
In addition, Fidan did not betray Erdoğan during the troubles of July 2016, helping the president stay in power and carry out personnel purges. In nominating Hakan Fidan to be foreign minister, Erdoğan made him a more public politician to present a silhouette of a future successor to the outside world. It should also be recognized that Fidan is respected both in Russia and in the United States.
The successor scandal was also connected with the fact that Hakan Fidan, after a visit to the United States, publicly declared that the Turkish KAAN fighter jet would not be mass-produced due to Washington’s refusal to provide the Turks with an engine. Thus, Fidan directly hinted that Erdoğan’s loud statements about the achievements of the domestic military-industrial complex are somewhat far from reality and important projects cannot be implemented without the United States. In other words, the chief Turkish diplomat noted the vulnerability of Türkiye’s security and its dependence on the US.
Such revelations by Fidan made Erdoğan displeased—to put it mildly. But would an experienced politician admit those details if he were not sure of the support of his candidacy from both the United States and the United Kingdom, as well as from within his country?
Fidan has recently started to attract attention outside of Türkiye. Thus, in 2025, in Moscow, a former Armenian foreign intelligence officer, Colonel Gevorg Minasyan, published the book “Hakan Fidan: A Possible Future President of Türkiye,” which was picked up in the media and public circles (including Turkish ones).
Predictions on the topic of a successor are just that—predictions; any number of factors could render this analysis obsolete. It is unknown whether the current ruling Justice Party will retain power or whether the opposition party (and which one?) will win. Also, Erdoğan did not leave anyone from among the ruling party who would be a prominent figure capable of becoming the next leader.
Alexander SVARANTS—Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor, Turkologist, expert on Middle Eastern countries
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