The recent coup in Madagascar threatens to plunge the country into a political and economic regression similar to the 2009 coup that saw youth protests led by opposition leader Andry Rajoelina overthrow incumbent President Marc Ravalomanana.
New President or the Same Old Cycle?
In 2009, Madagascar’s then-opposition protested the incumbent president’s reported misuse of public funds, dictatorial tendency, elitist policies, and crackdown on opposition media. Ravalomanana had then closed down a TV station owned by Rajoelina, but Rajoelina proceeded to crack down on opposition media in 2025. The 2009 protests and the resulting unrest, to which the government responded violently, leading to 130 deaths, led Ravalomanana to hand over power to a military council, which transferred it to Rajoelina. The resulting transitional authority steered the country into political and economic deterioration, which suggests that strengthening governance institutions might have worked better.
This article looks into how the October 2025 coup in Madagascar does not guarantee better political and developmental outcomes, while agitating for policy changes and strengthening governance institutions may have better outcomes.
Why do Coups occur in a Country That Holds Elections?
If coups are to be admissible in a modern society, they must lead to profound positive changes compared to a constitutional transition, especially in countries that hold regular elections. Otherwise, it is difficult to justify the violence and bloodbath that are nearly inherent in coups. From the observation that leaders in 2009 and 2025 resigned under public pressure, it can be concluded that the same leaders could have changed their policies had protestors demanded it.
Presence of democratic processes allowing citizens to influence government policies within electoral terms might have prevented coups, including the October 2025 event. However, some young people have expressed optimism in the recently sworn-in leader, noting his patriotism in how he declared that he and his cabinet will not hold dual citizenship. He has also pointed out that former leaders held dual citizenship and hence had divided allegiance, often favoring France at the expense of Madagascar. If the new leader oversees significant positive changes, it might expose shortfalls of the former democratic system under which he had no chance compared to his predecessors, who were tycoons and celebrities. Altogether, it is important for countries to build democratic systems that enable responsive governance without coups, which can be disruptive.
Madagascar’s 2009 coup caused devastating political and economic outcomes, making it worrisome that such a possibility exists after the October 2025 event. Before the 2009 coup, the country was on a progressive socio-economic developmental path that should have been maintained while correcting its shortfalls. Ravalomanana’s government achieved more in under a decade than the post-coup years, as he oversaw Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expansion of over 5.7% during his tenure. Also, he oversaw the building of thousands of schools, hospitals, and road infrastructure, enabling farmers to have easier access to markets. He also established an anti-corruption body, reducing corruption in government, which might have enhanced development in the future. Still, according to Princeton University, Ravalomanana launched efforts to improve government effectiveness, improve rice production, and enhance service delivery in many regions. One of his poverty eradication papers received acclaim from international bodies, albeit the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. He also attempted to diversify the country’s exports from vanilla, coffee, and cloves to include textiles, which would have expanded citizens’ incomes. Another aspect that contributed to the success of his economic policies was that he had significantly reduced his country’s indebtedness status, reaching the completion point of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) ranking by 2004, which led to debt cancellation of nearly $2 billion.
The 2009 coup rolled back all these achievements. What was supposed to be a victorious moment of young people replacing a dictator launched the country into an unpredictable decline. The transitional period between 2009 and 2014 was characterized by wild political instability, international isolation, and socio-economic decline, while the inexperienced leader unsuccessfully attempted administrative reforms.
The unpredictable transition hamstrung governance institutions, including the Judiciary, legislature, and local governments, with their work remaining suboptimal during the transitional period. Meanwhile, Rajoelina centralized power beyond what he had blamed his predecessor for, and also curtailed opposition media and demonstrations. Internationally, a period of isolation began immediately after the coup, as the African Union (AU), Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), and UN refused to recognize the government, while the new leadership failed to expedite elections, which prolonged the isolation. Also, the leadership failed to politically rally the nation together, resulting in unrest, such that Rajoelina needed power-sharing negotiations, including the “Addis Ababa” and “Maputo” processes, to return the country to constitutional rule.
Madagascar’s economy took the greatest hit during the transition, moving from 7% GDP expansion in 2008 to 4% contraction in 2009. Also, the percentage of people living in poverty increased from approximately 68% in 2008 to over 77% by 2013. Alongside the declining economy, Western institutions withheld aid while the US excluded Madagascar from the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), and tens of thousands of jobs were lost, which further pushed families into poverty. Meanwhile, public sector wages stagnated while investment in infrastructure collapsed, even as public services deteriorated as the government reduced spending. Only the mining industry, especially the nickel cobalt mines in Ambatovy, continued to develop and provided some cushion by boosting exports but had limited effects in reducing the decline in living standards. Social and economic stagnation can be noted in how Gen Z protestors in 2025 protested rolling blackouts and lack of access to water, problems that should have been solved long ago.
Going Forward
The author recognizes that the developmental journey may not be linear, and Madagascar cannot be held hostage by its past, including the 2009 coup. However, young people should recognize that changes in government should not be an end, but a means to development. Therefore, citizens of Madagascar may benefit more by insisting on policies that prioritize development and strengthening governance institutions than relaxing simply because they have a new government. Importantly, the new government should refine itself and become more responsive to citizens’ demands, and hence render future coups unnecessary, by prioritizing citizens’ needs and providing a path for good leaders to rise. Gen Z’s deposing the government should not be viewed as a victory; only how well they manage to steer their country towards development should count. If the Gen-Z uprising fails to grasp this truth, its rebellion will not illuminate the nation’s path but will become an uncontrollable torch that burns the holders’ hands rather than illuminating their way.
Simon Chege Ndiritu, is a political observer and research analyst from Africa
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