On September 7, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his intention to resign prematurely, which automatically implies stepping down from the position of leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party as well.
“Has the ‘Tariff Deal’ with the United States Been Concluded?”
Although within the expert community, opinions that S. Ishiba would ultimately have to step down as Prime Minister began to emerge just six months after he assumed the position in the autumn of last year. This is because no progress was made in addressing the problems that had accumulated both domestically and in the foreign policy sphere, which had prompted his predecessor, F. Kishida, to also resign prematurely. However, these long-standing issues were compounded by all the negativity accompanying “D. Trump’s tariff war,” which was declared primarily against the closest allies of the United States.
However, after the severe defeats suffered by the LDP with a one-month interval this summer on two electoral fronts, calls for S. Ishiba’s resignation have become quite clear within the party itself, including from its leading officials. Under these circumstances, S. Ishiba has taken approximately the following position: “Give me time to complete negotiations with D. Trump on tariffs, and then we’ll see. I might step down. But not necessarily.»
And in early September, two messages emerged almost simultaneously. The first stated that the six-month-long U.S.-Japan tariff duel, spanning nearly ten rounds, had finally concluded. However, as they say, “with a split decision by the judges.” The second reported that S. Ishiba had indeed heeded the advice of his party comrades and would step down from the positions of Prime Minister and leader of the LDP.
As for the “tariff deal,” it appears to involve not so much firmly fixed specifics as intentions. In particular, it is reported that in response to Tokyo’s promises to additionally invest “hundreds of billions of dollars” in the American economy, Washington has reduced the initially announced tariff on imported Japanese automobiles—the country’s main export item—from 27.5% to 15%. A dubious “success” for the Japanese automotive industry. Thus, it is quite possible to expect the continuation of the U.S.-Japan “tariff boxing” in the form of “rematch matches.»
Moreover, disruptions in economic cooperation are bound to negatively impact the political sphere of Washington-Tokyo relations. This is particularly significant given that the importance of alliance relations with Japan is only increasing, considering the shift of U.S. interests to the Indo-Pacific region. One can kick around a pack of European jackals attempting to speak on behalf of Europe, from whom nothing but various nuisances can be expected. With Japan, however, one must act with utmost caution. Especially today, when Tokyo has expressed its intention to develop comprehensive relations with India, with Europe as a whole, and increasingly noticeably with the United Kingdom.
Japan in Recent International Security Events
The defense component of strengthening Japan-UK relations was manifested in the visit of the aircraft carrier Prince of Wales to the ports of Yokosuka and then Tokyo at the end of August. During this visit, the ship was toured by acting Prime Minister S. Ishiba and Defense Minister G. Nakata. Specifically, the latter, along with his British counterpart G. Healey, participated in some forum events held on board the aircraft carrier. On September 5, G. Nakata met with the Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Giuseppe Dragone.
On the same day, another (the 12th) meeting of the Japan-Australia “2+2 Format” was held, resulting in an extensive Joint Statement. The content of this document fully aligns with the process of further strengthening the bilateral quasi-alliance. One of its symbolic milestones was the assignment to the Japanese company Mitsubishi Heavy Industries of the program to modernize the fleet of frigates for the Australian Navy.
On September 9, the same G. Nakata met with the Defense Minister of another quasi-ally, the Philippines, in Seoul on the sidelines of another (the 14th) international “Security Dialogue.” This time, the event was unprecedentedly large in terms of both the composition and number of participants. However, the main goal of the Japanese Defense Minister’s visit to the Republic of Korea appears to have been an attempt to restore the once achieved but subsequently lost (due to a number of reasons) level of cooperation with colleagues from the new leadership of the ROK.
Finally, the visit to Japan by former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen with the stated goal of “vacationing at one of the Japanese resorts” attracted attention. It should be noted that before this trip, Tsai Ing-wen met with her current successor in the said post, Lai Qing-te. Taking into account the “specific” nature of Taiwan’s status in the international arena, Tsai Ing-wen, who does not hold any official positions, plays the role of an equally “specific” diplomat. Nevertheless, all this disguise did not prevent the PRC from assessing the latest act of strengthening Japanese-Taiwanese ties in the expected way.
The LDP is preparing for leadership elections
It is reasonably safe to predict that Japan’s course toward strengthening both its own defense potential and international configurations aimed at achieving the same objectives will remain unchanged. This holds true regardless of which potential candidate assumes the roles of future leaders of the ruling party or the country’s prime minister. Although certain nuances in policy toward the key regional opponent, namely China, may emerge, they are unlikely to be significant.
Ishiba himself has not yet expressed a desire to nominate his candidacy for the vote during the LDP leadership election scheduled for October 4, for which an extraordinary party congress will be convened. It should be noted that the scheduled change of its leadership is set to occur in the fall of 2027. Typically, all members of both houses of parliament from the LDP, who currently number 295, as well as an equal number of delegates from local party branches, participate in such an event.
Several candidates for the position of the new LDP leader have already emerged, among whom commentators highlight two. First, there is Sanae Takaichi, who twice held the position of Minister of Internal Affairs in different cabinets under Shinzo Abe, one of the most successful prime ministers of post-war Japan. Last fall, in the LDP leadership election, also an extraordinary one, she competed on equal terms with S. Ishiba for this position. The second most notable candidate is the 44-year-old current Minister of Agriculture, Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of the equally prominent statesman Junichiro Koizumi.
A potential disadvantage for the latter is that in the government, he was “assigned” to address issues in a universally challenging area of activity. The primary issue stems from the sudden rice shortage that intensified last year. However, this year, unprecedented heat, the reappearance of stink bugs in rice fields, and yet another record influx of foreign tourists eager for Japanese cuisine may hinder the ambitions of the young politician.
However, let us not speculate about the future prime minister of the country—one of the significant participants in the current stage of the “Great World Game”—and instead wait to see which of the candidates will be chosen for this exceedingly challenging lot.
Vladimir Terekhov, expert on issues of the Asia-Pacific region
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