Despite the rise to power of a new president and the formation of his government, the situation in Mozambique remains tense.
Possible Scenarios for Future Developments
However, Alex Vines, head of the Africa program at the British think tank Chatham House, has been more direct in his assessment. According to him, in the current circumstances, “there are only two possible outcomes – either a coup, which has never happened in Mozambique before, or the formation of a national unity government.”
Another grim perspective comes from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). Its experts warn that if the widespread youth-led protest movement continues to be met with excessive violence from law enforcement, the situation could escalate into a full-scale conflict, ultimately leading to civil war – something Mozambique experienced between 1975 and 1992.
American think tanks have also weighed in on the crisis. Analysts from the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) have expressed concerns that growing instability in Mozambique could prompt factions within the military to act against the government in Maputo. At the same time, they note that within FRELIMO, there are signs of willingness to share power with the opposition by forming a coalition government.
Given these unfolding developments and the growing challenges facing the new president, opposition leader Mondlane has essentially resorted to blackmailing the government. Certain external actors seem to be encouraging him in this direction. For instance, the UK-based publication Zitamar News, analyzing the current events in Mozambique, explicitly urges the opposition to exploit anti-government protests to weaken FRELIMO as much as possible. In an article titled “Reform: Strike While the Iron Is Hot,” Zitamar News calls on the opposition to seize the moment.
It appears that Mondlane, in his attempt to strengthen his influence, is drawing lessons from the political strategy of South Africa’s opposition, which recently challenged the dominance of the African National Congress (ANC). As early as last October, right after the elections, Mondlane reached out to other opposition parties and FRELIMO with a proposal to establish a national unity government – mirroring the governance model adopted in South Africa after the ANC failed to secure a majority in early 2024 and was forced to form a coalition government.
Following this strategy, in an interview with the BBC on January 21, Mondlane stated that he would be willing to join the government – provided that President Daniel Shapu meets his conditions. These include the unconditional release of approximately 5,000 people detained for participating in protests, financial compensation for the families of deceased demonstrators, and medical care for those injured during the unrest.
Mondlane gave the president a 100-day deadline to fulfill these demands, during which he promised to suspend protests. However, he warned that if his conditions were not met, he would call for renewed mass demonstrations against the government.
In response, President Daniel Shapu, in a separate interview with the BBC, announced that he had assembled a team of experts to “review” the possibility of including Mondlane in an “inclusive” Mozambican government.
US Interests in Mozambique
Mondlane places significant hope in US support, as well as backing from other Western nations. According to the Nigerian publication ThisDay, he has directly appealed to Washington and London to take the lead in rallying the international community to resolve the crisis in Mozambique.
Until recently, Mozambique was not a major focus of US policy in Africa. However, due to its strategic geographic location – serving as a key link between Central African countries and the southeastern coast of the continent – Washington’s interest in Mozambique has grown considerably. The country’s ports provide Central African nations with access to export their critical minerals to the Asia-Pacific region. Moreover, Mozambique itself has become a significant global supplier of essential minerals such as lithium and cobalt. In recent years, US financial institutions have ramped up their involvement in the country. According to American sources, the US International Development Finance Corporation and the Export-Import Bank of the United States have invested billions of dollars in various projects in Mozambique.
Additionally, ExxonMobil is currently developing a $30 billion natural gas extraction project in the country, while the US Department of Energy is financing lithium mining operations.
Given these factors, it is no coincidence that opposition leader Mondlane is counting on US support. A report from the United States Institute of Peace argues that “the US, in pursuit of its own interests, may be a more effective mediator in resolving the crisis than other nations, as its significant investments in Mozambique provide it with substantial leverage over the conflicting parties.”
First and foremost, the pressure is on the Mozambican government to maintain a “more inclusive political dialogue and a more realistic economic course.” For example, the Millennium Challenge Corporation may, and indeed must, terminate the aforementioned agreement with Mozambique if it determines that the authorities are not taking the necessary measures to resolve the conflict, the article notes.
Trump’s Sword of Damocles Over Mozambique
The executive order issued on January 20 by newly inaugurated US President Donald Trump, suspending foreign aid programs for 90 days to assess their alignment with US foreign policy goals, will deal a serious blow to Mozambique, according to the British publication Zitamar News. As one of the largest recipients of US aid in Africa, Mozambique will be particularly affected, and the consequences for its healthcare system could be “catastrophic.”
Considering that Trump’s close ally, Elon Musk, began restructuring the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) in early February – an organization he described as “not just a rotten apple, but a nest of worms,” partly due to rampant corruption – the likelihood of such a scenario materializing is quite high.
As the news portal AllAfrica points out, of the more than $1 billion in US-funded projects in Mozambique, $400 million is allocated to the fight against AIDS, which affects 11.1% of the country’s adult population.
Mozambique also has one of the highest malaria rates in the world, with 356 malaria-related deaths recorded in hospitals in 2023.
Financial assistance is also under threat for projects funded by the US International Development Finance Corporation, the Export-Import Bank of the United States, and the Millennium Challenge Corporation, in which the US has pledged $500 million. These funds were earmarked for infrastructure projects, including the construction of a bridge over the Licungo River in Zambezia Province and several other key developments.
Despite initially pledging to refrain from anti-government demonstrations for 100 days following the new president’s rise to power, Mondlane has failed to keep his word. In fact, his populist demands – to lower the prices of essential goods, reduce tariffs on water and electricity, and suspend road toll fees – led to mass riots in and around the capital by late January.
Furthermore, as AllAfrica highlights, his warning to law enforcement that “for every protester killed, a police officer must also pay with their life” could escalate the unrest into a new wave of violence.
If we take into account Mondlane’s contradictory statement in a January 22 interview with AFP, where he claimed he was willing to help resolve the crisis but was “not interested in joining the government” and had “not yet engaged in direct contact with Daniel Shapu,” it creates the impression that he is deliberately working to derail the political settlement process – potentially setting the stage for another round of mass anti-government protests once his 100-day ultimatum expires.
Viktor Goncharov, Africa expert, PhD in Economics
