Following the presidential elections held on October 9 last year, which were accompanied by massive anti-government demonstrations, the domestic political situation in Mozambique continues to be difficult.
The balance of political forces on the eve of the elections
According to many observers, the 2024 election campaign began with the surprise nomination by the leadership of the country’s ruling FRELIMO party of Daniel Chapo, 47, formerly governor of the central province of Inhambane, as its presidential candidate.
Retiring after 8 years in office, President Filipe Nyusi who enjoys the support of the highly influential faction of former generals who led the country to independence, according to experts of International Crisis Group, made every effort to preserve and further the business and political interests of the ruling elite.
Therefore, the choice of a young presidential candidate with little political experience should be seen as a kind of compromise in the intra-party struggle for power, rather than evidence of a desire to fundamentally change the political course of the country. Maputo’s political circles believe that Chapo understands the need for reform and the democratization of the political process, but not at the expense of weakening FRELIMO’s control over the state apparatus, much less its relinquishment of power.
The opposition is on the offensive
Daniel Chapo’s main rival for the presidency was Venâncio Mondlane, who, as an independent candidate, challenged Mozambique’s current political establishment with support from the relatively small Partido Otimista pelo Desenvolvimento de Moçambique (Optimist Party for the Development of Mozambique, or PODEMOS), founded by FRELIMO defectors.
He became a well-known figure, especially among young people, in the early 2000s when he was a television and radio commentator in the Mozambican media. And today, with what Al Jazeera claims is about 1.2 million followers on Facebook, he is using the platform extensively to achieve his political goals, calling for “an end to the FRELIMO regime.”
Venâncio Mondlane was previously a member of the country’s main opposition party, Resistência Nacional Moçambicana (the National Resistance of Mozambique, or RENAMO), which waged an armed struggle against FRELIMO from 1977 to 1992, and on its platform ran unsuccessfully for mayor of Maputo, the country’s capital, in 2023.
As for RENAMO, it came to the election campaign as a divided party. It was represented in the election by its leader, Ossufo Momade.
The third largest party, the Movimento Democrático de Moçambique (Democratic Movement of Mozambique) was represented in the election by its leader, Lutero Simanga.
On October 10, the day after the elections, even before the National Electoral Commission had counted the votes, Mondlane unexpectedly announced his victory, citing data from his electoral team without giving any concrete facts.
In response, Mozambique’s attorney general warned him against making such statements, which could lead to unrest. However, despite this, Mondlane, pointing to statements by local and foreign observers, accused the authorities of electoral fraud and called on his many supporters, including on social media, to support the protest movement and stage a general strike.
But this only led to a further aggravation of the situation. On October 18, Mondlane’s lawyer, who was preparing a lawsuit to reject the election results, and a PODEMOS parliamentary candidate were killed by unidentified gunmen as they drove together in a car through a street in the Mozambican capital.
A wave of anti-government protests
The protests, which began immediately after the election with the clanging of pots and pans and the singing of the national anthem, gradually escalated into violent clashes with law enforcement personnel and army units using firearms.
As Nigeria’s Guardian notes, the growing protests have been accompanied by attacks by armed PODEMOS groups on government offices, military personnel and social infrastructure, forcing people to flee their homes.
While blocking roads and wreaking havoc in the country, the protestors also looted stores, set fire to buildings, police stations and offices of the ruling FRELIMO party.
Moreover, the newspaper continued, the opposition, accusing the government of electoral fraud, has threatened to continue the armed struggle if it does not proceed with reforms in the country.
The ensuing nationwide protests on October 21 were dispersed by police and army units using tear gas and live ammunition. In parts of the country, protesters vandalized four offices of the FRELIMO party and set fire to several police stations.
Following these events, Mondlane, fearing persecution, fled abroad, from where he continued to speak out on social media urging his supporters not to recognize the election results.
On October 24, the National Electoral Commission announced preliminary election results, according to which Daniel Chapo won 71 percent of the vote and Mondlane only 20 percent.
The protests reached their climax on November 7 when Mondlane, from abroad, called on the opposition to march on Maputo. Violent clashes with security forces left several dozen demonstrators dead and many more injured, and hundreds were arrested. According to the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), at least 130 people were killed as a result of the clashes in October-November 2024.
On November 12, Mozambique’s police chief, Bernardino Rafael, described the opposition’s actions as “urban terrorism” and “clearly intended to change the constitutional order in the country,” and the attorney general’s office opened 208 criminal cases in relation to the events.
According to some observers, these demonstrations looked “more like a genuine social revolt than protests.” And, according to The New York Times, “all too frequently this kind of unrest on the streets has been provoked by the inflammatory rhetoric of Mozambican opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane,” noting that much of the population responds to his speeches.
While FRELIMO continues to enjoy the support of the majority of the country’s older citizens, it has begun to lose its popularity in recent years in the eyes of young people, among whom more than a third of those between the ages of 20 and 25 are not in permanent employment. The party’s credibility has been undermined by years of economic decline, widespread unemployment and the high levels of corruption,
both within Mozambique’s state apparatus and in the upper echelons of FRELIMO. In 2022, 11 high-ranking government officials, including the finance minister and the son of former president Armando Guebuza, were found guilty of crimes related to a $2 billion “hidden foreign debt” financial scandal that resulted in the loss, Al Jazeera notes, of at least $11 billion in state-guaranteed foreign loans and triggered an economic crisis in the country and led to an insurgency in the natural gas-rich province of Cabo Delgado.
Today, despite having large reserves of natural gas and other valuable minerals and a significant tourist industry, Mozambique is among the least developed countries in the world, ranking 183rd out of 193 countries on the Human Development Index. According to the World Bank, nearly three-quarters of the population lives on less than $2.15 a day and only 40 percent of the population has access to electricity.
In view of this, the riots, accompanied as they were by looting and burning of business premises, caused serious damage to the country’s economy. For example, some 200 people tried to break into a mine which holds about half of the world’s ruby stockpile, and two attackers were killed by security forces, after which operations in the mine were suspended. The largest aluminum smelter in the region also ceased operations.
The extent of the destruction and looting of public and private property, as observed by the South African Broadcasting Corporation, was so extensive that representatives of the business community who suffered heavy economic losses as a result eventually forced Venâncio Mondlane to issue a call to his supporters to stop these illegal acts.
But an even bigger wave of protests swept the country after the Constitutional Council confirmed the legitimacy of Daniel Chapo’s election to the presidency on December 23 last year, while noting that he had won 65 percent of the vote, not 71 as previously reported, and that 24 percent, rather than 20 percent, had voted for his opponent Venâncio Mondlane.
According to the Confederation of Economic Organizations of Mozambique, the wave of rioting and looting that swept the country during the election period affected more than 500 companies in various sectors of the economy and disrupted between 30 and 40 percent of the country’s logistics infrastructure, resulting in the loss of at least 12,000 jobs.
According to Lusa-Business News, in the violent clashes between protesters and police and army units, 327 people were killed between the beginning of the October riots and the end of 2024, including police officers, while some 750 suffered gunshot wounds.
The overall deterioration of the country’s domestic political situation led the International Monetary Fund to downgrade the projected growth rate of the Mozambican economy in 2024 from 5 percent to 4.3 percent last November.
The massive nationwide protests have not only caused major disruptions to the economy, but also spooked foreign investors, including France’s Total Energies and US Exxon Mobil, which are working on plans to invest tens of billions of dollars to develop offshore gas fields in the north of the country.
Viktor Goncharov, African expert, PhD in Economics
