The intensification of Turkish policy in West Africa led to the notable failures of Paris, caused in recent years by a series of military coups in its former colonial possessions, which led to a sharp reduction in its political influence in the region.
According to a public opinion poll conducted in 2021 with the assistance of the French Council of Investors in Africa, in which 2,426 respondents, including analysts, representatives of private business, civil society, media and religious organisations from 12 African countries, participated, France’s image has dropped a lot against the background of Turkey’s impressive breakthrough in this direction.
According to the poll, if in 2019 France ranked 5th on the continent in terms of popularity, then by 2020 it had moved to 6th and in 2021 further dropped to 7th place.
Ankara has surpassed Paris in terms of popularity in Africa
Within this timeframe, the biggest success was achieved by Turkey, which in 2021 came in 8th immediately after France, gaining 15% of the respondents’ votes. This was made possible by the growth of Turkish investments on the continent and organising new Turkish Airlines routes on the African continent.
The UN Report on Global Humanitarian Assistance for 2018 also played a significant role; Turkey was ranked first in terms of funds allocated to humanitarian assistance to states in need, spending $ 8.3 billion or 0.79% of the state budget.
But the criterion of the most “useful” partner in Africa was claimed by China, followed by the US, Canada, Germany, Japan and then Turkey in 6th place, leaving behind the United Kingdom, UAE and France.
When Ankara surpassed Paris in terms of popularity in Africa, this evoked serious concerns in Paris. The French president, in his usual manner, saw this as a machination of geopolitical opponents. According to the Institute for Strategy and Security in Jerusalem, in November, 2022, he accused Turkey, as well as China and Russia, of subversive activities against French interests in Africa.
In this regard, the British news agency Middle East Eye points to the obvious baselessness of Paris’ accusations against Turkey and Russia blaming the collapse of France’s Africa policy on their interference in its affairs, and emphasises that the main reason for the French flop lies in the unprecedented growth of anti-French sentiment in West African countries caused by years of merciless exploitation of their mineral resources and the use of the CFA franc as a source of income for the French treasury.
In the failure of French policy in West Africa, Turkey saw new opportunities to spread its own influence in this region. Having experience in cooperation with the countries of the Horn of Africa since 2011, especially with Somalia, today Ankara has started to consider the entirety of Africa as a geopolitical platform where it can boldly confront France. According to the news agency, Erdogan seems to have come to the conclusion that it is time for Turkey to become an active political player in Africa.
The “Somali model” of cooperation
A clear example of Ankara’s success in this area is its relations with Mogadishu, dubbed the “Somali model” of cooperation, which was initially based on providing extensive humanitarian assistance at the initial stage, driven by the slogans of Islamic solidarity, and then followed by deepening cultural, economic and military ties.
Having started in 2011 with providing humanitarian assistance to Somalia and in subsequent years gradually deepening relations in all areas and creating its largest military base abroad here, Turkey has today become the main foreign player de facto determining the political course of Somalia.
Using this experience, Ankara, as noted by the Turkish edition of The Turkey Analyst, pays primary attention to the development of cooperation with Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, which are landlocked and under Western sanctions and are of considerable interest to the Turkish military-industrial complex as a market for its products.
Turkish goods, both military and civilian, are becoming popular in African markets because they tend to be of higher quality than their Chinese counterparts and more competitively priced than European goods.
Turkey seeks to reshape the strategic architecture of North Africa and the Sahel region in its favour
At the same time, interest in cooperation with Ankara is also expressed by the leaders of these states, who, using the example of the Turkish military intervention in Libya in 2019, have become convinced of Ankara’s ability to provide ‘effective services’ in the field of security.
Ankara is also showing special interest in Niger. This is due to the fact that there is a network of religious organisations in the country that are benevolent towards Turkey, making Niger a more reliable partner in the face of Egypt’s active opposition to Turkish plans in this region. In July, 2020, an agreement on military cooperation and deepening of economic ties was signed between the two countries.
These steps taken by Ankara have been met with an extremely negative reaction in France. Paris was particularly annoyed by the agreements on the participation of Turkish companies in the exploration and development of the mining industry in Niger (a third of uranium for French nuclear power plants comes from uranium deposits in Niger), as well as on the establishment of military cooperation, which creates prerequisites for Turkish military presence in the country.
It should be noted that the impetus for the increase in contradictions between Turkey and France, two NATO members, was the incident related to the attack in the Mediterranean Sea by Turkish warships on June, 18, 2020, on a French frigate trying to intercept a Turkish cargo ship suspected of delivering weapons to Libya, disregarding the UN ban.
This Turkish attack was described by French Minister of Defence Florence Parly as an “extremely aggressive act” that led to a sharp aggravation of Franco-Turkish relations. In Ankara’s further establishing of Turkish air force and navy bases in Libya, Paris saw Turkey’s attempt to reshape the strategic architecture of North Africa and the Sahel region – France’s traditional sphere of influence – in its favour,.
After the military coup in Niger on July 26, 2023, relations with Turkey were further developed. During the visit of Niger’s Prime Minister Lamine Zein to Ankara in early February this year, issues of expanding economic ties, as well as cooperation in the field of security and the fight against terrorism, were discussed during talks with President Erdogan. At the same time, the Turkish president said that his country would strengthen its support for Niger and would oppose any intervention against it.
In this regard, in one of its articles the London edition of Middle East Eye poses the question: “Is Turkey going to replace France in West Africa?”. This question appeared in the title of the article.
As experts of the Turkish magazine Insight Turkey note, although Turkey is not a great power, it nevertheless has significant abilities to act independently as a member of NATO and the G20, resist the pressure of great powers and influence the events taking place in the region.
The Turkish desire to strengthen its position on the former territories of the Ottoman Empire, the Horn of Africa and Africa in general is explained not only by ambitions to become a regional hegemon of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, but also, according to Professor Mehmet Ozkan of the National Defence University of Turkey, to demonstrate its strength and military capabilities to other African countries and that Turkey is ready to contribute to strengthening their defence capability on a mutually beneficial basis.
Assessing the prospects for further development of Turkish-African relations, experts from the analytical centre Geopolitical Intelligence Services, registered in Liechtenstein, come to the conclusion that Turkey can become one of the leading partners on the continent for individual countries in ensuring their security, both by training local military personnel and supplying its weapons, especially modern UAVs, without exception becoming a serious competitor for all foreign players operating in this field. However, this competition will seriously undermine the position of France, which will further complicate the already difficult relations between Paris and Ankara.
Viktor GONCHAROV, African expert, PhD in Economics, especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”