Bangladesh’s post-2024 transition hinges on balancing accountability for past abuses with democratic reforms, institutional independence, and political stability while pursuing a cautious foreign policy that maintains balanced relations with regional powers.
Between Historical Accountability and Democratic Reform
The student leaders, along with numerous other victims of brutality and persecution, including journalists, politicians, human rights advocates, and intellectuals, by the Hasina regime strongly advocate legal action against the then prime minister and her cronies, refusing to forget the crimes of the previous regime. Prime Minister Tarique Rehman and his supporters face the difficult task of dismantling entrenched bureaucratic influence over the country’s political economy while pursuing institutional reforms. The new government faces difficulties in dealing with the Awami League’s long-standing influence, political interests, and legacy while operating in a country deeply divided by political disagreements and tensions.
Because of this political environment, tensions in the country remain high and may turn hostile. The founding convener of the National Citizen Party and the Opposition Chief, Nahid Islam’s recent remarks during a press conference on October 28 reflect this sentiment. He accused the ruling Bangladesh National Party of numerous failures and settling personal scores by stating, “The judiciary remains under the control of those in power, the (criminal) justice system has not been reformed, violence is rampant, and the BNP-backed cadres are killing even their own party members.”. He further stated, “Terrorists are armed, ministers and state ministers are also carrying weapons and this is what is called a mafia state … godfathers of the (drug) trade, members of drug syndicates and political leaders linked to the business”. He also warned, “If we let this government off the hook, we may have to face another fascism. We do not want to have to overthrow another fascist regime at the cost of 1,400 lives again”.
The Unfinished Promise of the 2024 Uprising
Some may dismiss these allegations as politically charged rhetoric from a nascent student-led opposition party. Nonetheless, Nahid Islam’s underlying concerns warrant serious consideration, as they reflect challenges commonly encountered by countries undergoing political transitions. His statements reflect growing concerns about the current government’s seriousness in producing comprehensive reforms in the judiciary, democratic governance, and law enforcement. Nahid’s core argument is that replacing a government is not enough if institutional weaknesses, violence, political patronage, victimization, and impunity persist.
These concerns also surfaced in discussions among prominent youth representatives, war veterans, and military experts on the sidelines of the 2026 Bay of Bengal Conference. Although the conference mainly focused on global political issues, international conflicts, the Iran-US-Israel war, and the declining influence of the United Nations-based international system, participants also discussed Bangladesh’s internal political and social challenges and its foreign relations.
Dhaka’s Diplomatic Balancing Act Between Regional Powers
For Prime Minister Tarique Rehman, navigating the intricate relationship between Islamabad and New Delhi is a major challenge. Indeed, many in the Bengali population inside and outside the government want cordial relations with Pakistan. However, the political legacy of the Awami League and Hasina’s traditionally pro-India orientation continues to complicate these efforts. Dhaka’s foreign policy orientation is gradually evolving, and it intends to engage with all major regional states. It seeks renewed and broader engagement with regional and international powers such as Pakistan, China, Russia, and the United States, while maintaining a fraternal relationship with New Delhi. Bangladesh’s heavy dependence on foreign water supplies and external trade, which makes it vulnerable to sudden changes in Washington’s aid and trade policies. This also makes India a major concern for Dhaka, as it is dependent on the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna rivers for water. Moreover, it shares a huge border with India, a major regional and nuclear power.
Pakistan’s Renewed Outreach and India’s Enduring Influence
Since the ouster of Hasina Wajid’s government after the Monsoon revolution in 2024, Islamabad has also increased its efforts to strengthen its diplomatic relations with Bangladesh to minimize India’s regional influence. Several recently signed defense, educational, and diplomatic initiatives illustrate this renewed effort by both sides. The two sides have also exchanged a series of diplomatic visits. However, deeply rooted Indian influence within the bureaucratic and governance structures remains a major obstacle to this ambition. The incumbent Bengali government seems aware of this issue. Therefore, it is acting with extreme caution in its dealings with Islamabad. The incumbent Bengali government prioritizes fixing internal socio-economic issues and minimizing political instability while strengthening its relationship with Pakistan, China, and India without antagonizing any of these powers.
Abbas Hashemite is a political observer and research analyst for regional and global geopolitical issues. He is currently working as an independent researcher and journalist
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