Among the various reactions to the election of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States, of particular interest are the initial response in the leading countries of the Indo-Pacific region, which is becoming the focal point for the current stage of the “Big World Game.”
On a possible repositioning of the US on the global stage
In contrast to the optimism shown by the warriors of particularly naive propaganda, the present author is wary of the prospect of both the USA’s withdrawal from its position of “world policeman” and the collapse of American statehood, the brief history of which contains both positive and (to put it mildly) unpalatable chapters.
But the main point is not so much about “history” as about modernity. It is extremely doubtful that the emerging multipolar world will be “safer and fairer.” However those vague terms are understood. Let us only note that the state implied by the word “security” does not exist in nature at all. That applies whether we are talking about ecology or about politics. Nor are there any “foolproof methods” to achieve what does not exist in nature.
The emerging ambiguities related to the repositioning of the main player on the global stage (which, as we have already pointed out, is an inevitable process) provokes a wary response in all the other players, which can be boiled down to a simple question: “Is anything going to change?”. This general issue is evident to varying degrees in the reactions of all three major Asian players. Although there are naturally notable specific features in the response of each.
PRC
The main content of the congratulatory message sent on November 7 by Chinese leader Xi Jinping to Donald Trump on the occasion of his election victory, was that “a stable, sound and sustainable China-US relationship serves the two countries’ shared interests and meets the aspiration of the international community.” It should be noted that such messages are by no means “formally obligatory” in such cases, as in the last year, despite the generally negative nature of these relations, which will be inherited by the new US administration from its predecessors, there have been a number of sparks of hope.
These included a meeting of two US-China expert groups on financial and economic issues, which took place in Washington in late October. The meeting was the sixth since the formation of the expert groups in the fall of 2023. Cooperation between the two countries’ law enforcement bodies has also continued, particularly in relation to drug trafficking, a highly sensitive area for the United States.
As for US policy on China during Donald Trump’s first presidency, it left conflicting impressions. On the one hand, it was during the Trump administration that Washington’s “tariff war” with Beijing began in the field of trade and economic relations. But also during that period the Phase 1 bilateral agreement was concluded in a bid to reduce the USA’s huge trade deficit with the PRC.
Significantly, when asked to comment on Donald Trump’s recent statement about his intention to sharply increase tariffs on imported goods, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said that it is too early to draw any definite conclusions from this rhetoric, which is of a specific nature during the pre-election struggle. But her comments on Donald Trump’s remarks on the Taiwan issue were less restrained.
It seems, however, that Taiwan itself is also still quite unclear as to what to expect from the new US administration. Especially in the field of trade and economic relations, as the prospect of one of its main trading partners raising tariffs “on all imports” will inevitably have a negative impact on Taiwan’s export-oriented economy. It also brings to mind Donald Trump’s recent remarks about the “theft” of technologies (which, indeed, originated in the United States) used in the production of silicon chips, which are now Taiwan’s main export product. Taiwan was also cautious about the demand by Elon Musk, a close associate of the US president-elect, that Taiwanese suppliers of products used by his company Space X transfer production off the island.
Japan
Even Japan, a key US ally in the region, has mixed feelings. Moreover, in addition to uncertainty regarding its relations with Washington, Tokyo is also concerned about a domestic issue—the fact that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost its majority in parliament after the October 27 general election. The new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, is generally considered to be on the extreme right wing of the LDP, as evidenced by his longstanding and unwavering emphasis on the country’s defense policy. Like all his predecessors as prime minister, he favors a further strengthening of the military-political alliance with the US, as he made clear in his telephone conversation with Donald Trump on November 7.
However, during his own election campaign, Shigeru Ishiba took some initiatives to revise the 1960 Mutual Cooperation and Security Treaty by expanding Japan’s role and in terms of the basing of US troops on Okinawa. It’s unclear how the new president will feel about it. Shigeru Ishiba plans to discuss all these and other issues directly with Donald Trump when he meets the President-elect in the US following his trip to Peru and Brazil, where he will take part in the APEC and G20 Summits.
Another, equally important issue in the upcoming meeting will be the various problems related to trade and economic relations between the two countries. It is no secret that this topic occupies a special place in Donald Trump’s world view, and general “economic” problems almost completely dominated the mood of the Japanese public during the recent Japanese elections.
Both the leadership of the Central Bank, which is concerned about the “jittery” national currency exchange rate, and Japanese business circles met Trump’s remarks on the “tariff” issue with considerable trepidation. Thus, the management of Nippon Steel Corporation has decided to accelerate the de facto purchase of US Steel Corporation (because “Who knows what will happen after the inauguration of the new president?”).
Nevertheless, and despite all the uncertainties, the powerful Keidanren (Federation of Japanese Business Leaders) has already called for the further development of trade and economic ties with the US.
India
Of the three Asian leaders, India seems to be the only one with no doubts about the “rosy prospects” for relations with the US under the new president. All the more so because the final phase of this relationship under the current US administration has been marred by the latter’s intervention, with little justification, in the Sikh problem, which is a painful issue for New Delhi.
It should be noted that Donald Trump, who tends to show his emotions clearly, was apparently strongly impressed by his first visit to India during his previous term as president. Significantly, so was his wife. Even the large-scale ethnic riots that broke out in New Delhi just as he was arriving at the airfield in Ahmedabad, the capital of Gujarat (where Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi served as chief minister in the 2000s) failed to dampen Donald Trump’s positive perception of the country.
Nevertheless, it is too early to make any confident predictions about the new US administration’s policy both globally and in the Indo-Pacific region, and about future relations between the US and each of the three major Asian powers. As the saying goes, “time will tell.”
Vladimir Terekhov, expert on the issues of the Asia-Pacific region, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
