As Türkiye carves out an independent foreign policy and expands its military and regional influence, Western strategic circles are increasingly casting Ankara as the next geopolitical challenger—proving that in international politics, today’s ally can quickly become tomorrow’s rival.
For decades, the West, in particular the US, has intervened globally to allegedly reshape societies and impose its version of a governance model in foreign territories. However, usually (and especially in the Middle East), every US intervention can be traced back to Israeli pressure. Even now, Türkiye’s sudden reputation as a rival to the West comes from Israel’s lobbying – since any rival of Israel is a rival of the West. Efforts undermining Türkiye’s positive role in the region have already started.
Why Does Türkiye Make the West Uneasy?
Earlier this month, Steven A. Cook, a columnist at Foreign Policy, wrote an article titled “The Hypocrisy That Shields Erdoğan from Global Criticism,” which is a great indicator of what the new narrative surrounding Türkiye will be. After giving a lecture on democracy and human rights, Cook stated, “What is shocking is the silence of the key leaders in the United States and abroad, including political figures who tend to centre democratic values and human rights in the West’s approach to the world, and yet have said nary a word about Ankara’s dreadful record. How dreadful? If Türkiye wanted to become a member of NATO now instead of in 1952, it would not meet the criteria on democracy, rule of law, and human rights.” He further elaborated that it is not only President Trump but also leading Democrats, who are now compromising with Türkiye in both the US and Europe.
However, while criticising the West’s double standards and Türkiye’s undemocratic practices, Cook mentioned, “As one congressional staffer whose boss is interested in Türkiye relayed, ‘Everyone up here just wants to talk about Bibi’ [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu].” His statement supporting the Israeli PM tells the actual story. The Israeli lobby has once again started funding Western circles to undermine Türkiye’s rising eminence. On 17th February, 2026, Israel’s former PM Naftali Bennett explicitly stated, “Türkiye is the new Iran,” openly positioning Türkiye as Israel’s newest rival.
Former Israeli ambassador Alon Pinkas offered a blunter diagnosis: Israeli politicians, he argued, “rely on the perpetual threat of war … it doesn’t matter who. There just always needs to be a threat. Has the leadership in Türkiye ever denied Israel’s right to exist or threatened to wipe it from the map? No. It’s ridiculous.”
It is important to understand that Iran was sidelined and ostracised long before it was attacked. Türkiye is not the same. It is Türkiye’s indispensability, its geographic location, and its balancing power between various competing global and regional players that make it outstanding. Moreover, due to the rise in calls for strategic autonomy in Europe after the US retreat, the EU wants to maintain functional relations with Türkiye for its defence.
Turkiye’s Search for Strategic Autonomy
The US retrenchment and the ever-increasing volatility in the international arena have given rise to strategic autonomy. From the Pacific to the Atlantic, every state is now striving to become independent to a large extent. And Türkiye is no exception. The continuous bashing by the West for not showing compliance with Western standards and the halt of various defence deals have already provided a lesson to Türkiye that it can not rely on the US or NATO, and must be strategically autonomous to fit into the upcoming multipolar world order. The recent US-Iran war further provided impetus to this. To build and strengthen alliances, Türkiye is also now looking towards the Gulf states, in particular the KSA, and some North African states such as Somalia and Pakistan in South Asia. In February 2026, President Erdoğan visited Saudi Arabia, resetting Saudi-Türkiye ties after a long period of restraint.
Likewise, Türkiye’s growing defence relations with Pakistan are also hurting the Israeli-sponsored Western strategists. Türkiye is also challenging Israel in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, etc. In May 2026, with the unveiling of its first intercontinental ballistic missile project called Yildirimhan, which has come as a shock even to some members of the Turkish defence industry, Türkiye launched itself into an entirely new chapter in its national security policy. The neoconservative circles based in the US perceived the development of the missile as Türkiye trying to upset the balance of power in the Middle East and be “the new Iran.”
Some analysts have also seen it as an attempt by Türkiye to use the missile against India in any future wars over Kashmir, if the Pakistan-Türkiye relationship further strengthens. In the near future, there is going to be an increase in such narratives to somehow undermine Türkiye’s rising status in the region.
Ankara-NATO Summit
“I am going because of Erdoğan,” said Trump before leaving for the 2026 NATO summit in Ankara, Türkiye. If Trump is flattering someone, it usually means he is wary of them or wants something from them. In the case of the PRC or Russia, Trump usually bows down (for instance, calling President Xi his close friend) just because he is afraid of them. However, in the case of Türkiye, the recent flattery by Trump is giving some other signals. The US knows that Israel has failed to deliver in the region, and Iran’s success is its clear manifestation. Iran controlling the region is simply not tolerable by the US. The Trump administration could be providing a way for Türkiye to act as its strategic player in the region instead of Israel. Knowing the fact that Türkiye maintains balanced relations with different competing players, the US now wants it to step up and play a mediatory role while the US keeps an eagle eye on the region through it.
Most likely as part of the same agenda, the US government under Trump has also cleared the GE F110 engines for Türkiye’s indigenously developed KAAN fighter jet project. Despite some setbacks in Congress, the agreement is widely seen as an indication of the fact that the United States is trying to revive military cooperation with Türkiye after many years. This comes as a positive development since the US-Türkiye relations became heavily strained when Türkiye purchased the Russian-made S-400 missile defence system, and got kicked out of the F-35 fighter jet program.
During this summit, President Donald Trump announced that he will lift sanctions on Türkiye and will soon decide on resuming sales of F-35s. For the US, Türkiye has become an indispensable partner on the Syrian front, considering Ankara’s military deployment and great influence in post-Assad Syria. The NATO summit in Ankara did not result in something extraordinary, but this growing Trump-Erdogan bromance could change the alliance’s trajectory.
Conclusion
Whether it’s Israel or the West, they both need some external threat to secure their political legitimacy. See what the US has been doing for decades: from the ‘Global War on Terror’ to now making moves to position ‘Türkiye as a new threat.’ The recent Trump-Erdogan bromance is a time-specific move, characteristic of how the US typically evaluates and plans its next move. Additionally, the majority in Washington, as well as European strategic circles, are under Israel’s influence, which will do its utmost to turn the ongoing US-Türkiye positive trajectory of relations upside down.
The future is easy to predict. Narratives will be orchestrated, opinions will be spread, and then suddenly an announcement will be made: “Türkiye’s ballistic missiles are a threat to the US mainland.”
Aleena Im is an independent researcher and writer and is interested in international relations and current affairs
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