Ongoing Turkish-Greek contradictions periodically remind one of the internal disagreements within the NATO bloc, which could escalate into a new hotspot of tension in Europe. France’s choice in favor of a military alliance with Greece has caused concern in Türkiye.
France and Greece’s “Famous Alliance”
Naturally, military strengthening of Greece is extremely displeasing to Türkiye, as Greco-Turkish contradictions are escalating not only due to historical territorial disputes but also regarding the settlement of the Cyprus issue, as well as in light of the discovery of vast oil and gas deposits in the Mediterranean and Aegean Seas. Türkiye lays claim to a portion of these deposits, while Greece considers them to be within its territorial waters.
The major French energy company Total, together with the Italian oil and gas company Eni, is actively partnering in the exploitation of discovered deposits in this region, which could alter the balance of power in the global energy market.
Meanwhile, the economic foundation of Franco-Greek relations presupposes deepening military cooperation as well, given their shared interests. France, through Greece and Cyprus, is finding a growing market for the supply of weapons and military equipment. Accordingly, the military reinforcement of the Greek states is intended to cool down Türkiye’s aggressive aspirations to seize the richest oil and gas deposits on the continental shelf in this region.
This is precisely what lay behind the official visit of French President Emmanuel Macron to Greece this April, during which new agreements were signed to expand military cooperation between Paris and Athens. In particular, the parties decided to extend and expand the 2021 strategic partnership agreement. France sold Greece a new batch of Rafale aircraft, frigates, and missiles. This trend is leading to a high degree of Greek defense and security dependence on France.
Amid the escalation of Turkish-Greek relations over oil and gas deposits in the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas, Brussels demanded that Ankara avoid threatening an EU member state, and Washington demanded that it “respect Cyprus’ rights” to explore and extract minerals on the continental shelf.
Moreover, not only France but also the United States has begun reinforcing Greece with the supply of fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets, while denying Türkiye these very aircraft, allegedly due to Ankara’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 “Triumph” air defense missile system. It thus appears that key Western countries do not accept Ankara’s position on the joint exploitation of continental shelf oil and gas resources as a coastal state of the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas.
Türkiye Dissatisfied with Macron’s Pro-Greek Statements
In light of the escalation of NATO intra-bloc contradictions, caused by U.S. President Trump’s ambitious approach, Europe has been considering strengthening its own security architecture. Increasingly, leaders of the European continent — namely France, the United Kingdom, and Germany — are speaking out in favor of creating a regional version of NATO. In this regard, Türkiye tirelessly repeats that without it, Europe cannot guarantee its own full-fledged defense. Ankara points to its advantageous military-strategic position, its having the second-largest army in NATO, and the growth of its domestic defense industry.
Nevertheless, Türkiye, which has faced U.S. sanctions on the supply of F-16 and F-35 combat aircraft, has so far been unable to acquire European fifth-generation fighters (Rafale or Eurofighter). Ostensibly, Türkiye’s key military factor for strengthening the European security system is recognized by all NATO allies. In reality, however, certain prejudices toward Türkiye persist in Europe, both regarding integration into the EU and concerning the issue of common European defense.
A more striking example of European-Turkish contradictions can be seen against the backdrop of Greco-Turkish disagreements. The deepening military partnership between France and Greece with Cyprus is a case in point. The April visit of French President Macron to Greece added to the hype surrounding the disagreements between Ankara and Paris.
Thus, during a joint interview of President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis with the Greek publication Kathimerini, the French leader stated that if Greece’s sovereignty were challenged in the Aegean Sea, “We will be there!” He further explained: “If you look at what we did in the summer of 2021, if you look at what we did in Cyprus (on the Greek-Cypriot side) a few weeks ago, that is what I call friendship. That is the famous France-Greece alliance… If your sovereignty is challenged, do whatever you deem necessary for yourselves; we will be there.”
This French president’s statement was perceived in Türkiye as a veiled threat. Some Greek publications believe that Türkiye was not specifically mentioned in Macron’s statement, while others (e.g., Reporter Gr) claim that France will support Greece in the event of “potential offensive steps by Türkiye”.
Turkish media and the Ministry of Defense reacted critically to this statement from France, arguing that such a prospect is unlikely to help Greece withstand Türkiye’s military machine.
In particular, a representative of the Turkish defense ministry stated at a briefing in Ankara: “We remind them that any attempt to create a military alliance in our region stands no chance of success against Türkiye. In any situation where security and stability are at stake, those who support Türkiye will prevail, not those who oppose it”.
So, does Ankara not deny the possibility of such a prospect of military conflict with Greece? How confident are the Turks in their strength that a military alliance of European countries is unlikely to pose a threat to them?
It is unlikely that Paris intends to fight the Turks for Greek interests. True, the oil and gas deposits on the continental shelf in the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas are also interests of the French company Total. And where money is involved, no one can guarantee the absence of conflicts. However, the United States and Israel also recklessly embarked on a military adventure with another key Middle Eastern player, Iran, and where have they ended up? Türkiye may be militarily stronger than Cyprus, equal to Greece, and inferior to nuclear-armed France (especially the France-Greece-Israel alliance). Ankara always tries to calculate its steps carefully to avoid military defeats.
Meanwhile, at the 8th European Political Community Summit in Yerevan in early May, French President Macron, addressing the issue of Armenia’s security, spoke of the need for European military assistance to replace the 5,000-strong Russian military base and border guards. The question arises: from whom is Macron planning to defend Armenia if the Russians leave? Again, from Türkiye, a NATO ally. How effectively can France defend Armenia against Türkiye if it could not even defend it against Azerbaijan?
Thus, does Paris also view Armenia as the eastern flank of an anti-Turkish coalition? However, the historical experience of Southern (Mediterranean) Armenia during the First World War suggests that France will not provide military assistance to Armenians at the decisive moment, but is quite capable of repeating the history of the betrayal of Cilician Armenia.
Whether France will help Greece against threats from Türkiye is yet unclear. However, such actions will clearly deepen the rift within NATO, lead to a new hotspot of tension in southern Europe, and paralyze the collective defense mechanism of the alliance.
Alexander Svarants –PhD inPolitical Sciences, Professor, Specialist in Turkish Studies, expert on Middle Eastern countries
Follow new articles on our Telegram channel
