The assassination of Safaa Hussein Yassin al-Mashhadani, a Sunni candidate for the Baghdad Provincial Council, has plunged Iraq’s upcoming parliamentary elections into a crisis of fear and speculation, causing fears of a return to widespread political violence.
Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament Mahmoud al-Mashhadani lamented the assassination of his political ally. He honored the candidate as a “dutiful son” of the Taji district and a “martyr” who was killed by a treacherous explosive device that also injured two others traveling with him.
While Prime Minister Muhammad Shia’ Al-Sudani has vowed to “extract retribution” and officials claim the killer has been identified, the assassination has exposed the Iraqi state’s fragile grip on security and the deep-seated sectarian and political tensions that continue to fester beneath the surface.
A pattern of violence
This was not the first attempt on Mashhadani’s life. In 2023, he survived a similar attack that left him severely injured but politically strengthened, transforming him into a popular symbol of defiance for his constituents. His political platform was built on a controversial and dangerous issue: challenging the land seizures and expanding influence of Iran-backed factions within the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) in the predominantly Sunni “Baghdad Belt.”
Tarmiyah, like other towns ringing the capital, has been a flashpoint for years. Analysts point to a “Jurf al-Sakhar model”, referring to the alleged depopulation of a once-Sunni majority town by PMU factions after driving out Islamic State (IS) militants in 2014. Critics allege these groups, under the guise of counter-terrorism, have seized farmland and rezoned agricultural plots, consolidating economic and military control.
Just two days before his death, Mashhadani made a final, public stand. In a Facebook post on October 13, he declared, “the land belongs to its people, and we will not allow it to be violated or seized under any pretext”. His final official act was to petition the provincial council to suspend new PMU-linked investment licenses in Tarmiyah.
Accusations and fragmentation
In the aftermath of the killing, the blame game has highlighted Iraq’s profound divisions. Mashhadani’s party, the Sunni Sovereignty Alliance, flatly blamed “lawless armed groups” and accused the authorities of a “catastrophic security failure”. Other Sunni blocs pointed to the “sectarian rhetoric” they say incites such violence.
Unverified claims on social media have further muddied the waters. Some sources suggested Mashhadani had been threatened by the Iran-backed Kata’ib Hezbollah, with whom he had a longstanding dispute in Tarmiyah. In a starkly contrasting narrative, a journalist close to the PMU claimed on X that the Islamic State*, at the behest of Sunni rivals, was responsible.
This conflicting narrative is a hallmark of Iraq’s difficult political landscape, where accountability is often the first casualty. A report from Shafaq News, citing a security source, pointed to a “local group” in Tarmiyah, fueling widespread speculation that local cells of Kata’ib Hezbollah or similar factions were behind the act.
A dangerous precedent
The timing of Mashhadani’s assassination, just weeks before the November 11 legislative polls, is particularly alarming. While political violence has declined in recent electoral cycles, his death appears to have triggered a dangerous new trend.
In the days that followed, the office of a Yazidi candidate in Sinjar was firebombed, and Sunni politician Muthanna Al-Azzawi claimed his Baghdad office was attacked by unidentified gunmen. These incidents suggest a potential campaign of electoral intimidation aimed at silencing specific voices.
The broader implication is a potential collapse of faith in the democratic process. For Mashhadani’s young, predominantly Sunni supporters, his death may be seen as definitive proof that peaceful political advocacy within the system is futile. If perpetrators are seen to operate with impunity, the result will likely be deeper voter apathy and a further erosion of the state’s legitimacy.
The upcoming elections were already a test for Iraq’s fragile democracy. The assassination of Safaa Al-Mashhadani has now turned them into a referendum on whether the state can protect its own political process from the very armed factions that operate, in many cases, within its own formal structures. The fear is no longer just about who will win the vote, but whether the vote can be held at all without descending into a wider cycle of violence.
* Organization banned in the Russian Federation
Vanessa Sevidova, post-graduate student at MGIMO University and researcher on the Middle East and Africa
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