The most important observation in light of recent events is the Communist Party’s statement that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation will have little impact on Japanese politics.
Japanese Communist Party
The Japanese Communist Party is the oldest existing party in Japan. It advocates for social equality, pacifism, and anti-militarism, and consistently resists the US-Japan military alliance.
From my perspective, the most important observation in light of recent events is the party’s statement that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation will have little impact on Japanese politics. The intentions of LDP Diet members to remove him from the post of Prime Minister are merely a maneuver designed to divert attention from the fact that the party has not made progress in resolving the slush fund issue, has not reduced taxes amidst rising prices and economic difficulties, and has shown weak results in negotiations with the US on tariffs.
The media often blame all of this solely on Shigeru Ishiba. However, I agree with the representatives of the JCP that the entire LDP is actually to blame. Ishiba is becoming a “scapegoat,” whose role is to take the blow, apologize publicly, and fade into the background so that his party suffers fewer reputational losses and can continue its activities (and most likely, in the same way without change). This practice is not new in Japanese politics, and although Shigeru Ishiba has repeatedly stated that he does not intend to resign and does not want to create a “political vacuum,” his colleagues from the LDP probably had other plans for him. The JCP notes that through its actions, the LDP is betraying its slogan of pursuing a “policy that takes responsibility for the present and the future.” Indeed, it seems that only Ishiba has taken all the responsibility.
Nevertheless, I believe that the change of Prime Minister could still influence domestic policy. Under a new PM, a power shift will occur towards those LDP members who support him, and the policies they promote may differ from Ishiba’s initiatives. Furthermore, the LDP and Komeito do not hold a majority in the Diet, and the success of negotiations with the opposition, which are unavoidable, will depend on the PM and his associates. However, regarding foreign policy, I rather agree that changes should not be expected: as I wrote earlier, the distribution of forces in the Diet is such that Japan will act in the interests of the US under any scenario.
Speaking of this, the JCP also criticizes the militarization of Japan. The party condemns the regular joint exercises of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces with the US, Australia, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, and Indonesia, and the establishment of military and dual-use technology and equipment exports to countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The JCP calls for adherence to the principles of the Constitution of Japan and the Fukuda Doctrine (1977), which implied a commitment to peace and rejection of Japan becoming a military power. The JCP urges cooperation with ASEAN to build peace through dialogue and cooperation.
Indeed, the ruling forces are gradually leading Japan towards not only militarizing itself but also exporting military technologies to countries in the Asia-Pacific region, and along with it, exporting the fear of China. Graham Allison popularized the term “Thucydides’s Trap” in the 2010s precisely in the context of the US-China confrontation, and the situation continues to develop in the direction he predicted: the United States, fearing the growing influence of China, seeks to strengthen military power to contain its rival, using countries in East and Southeast Asia for this purpose. Japan is becoming a tool for exporting this militarization, which only increases tension in the region.
Reiwa Shinsengumi
Reiwa Shinsengumi represents an alternative to the Communist Party for the left-liberal establishment. This young political group was formed by the left wing of the Liberal Party, which opposed the merger with the centrist Democratic Party for the People in 2019. Despite being a populist group, Reiwa Shinsengumi often highlights important problems in its criticism of Japan’s ruling forces.
The party points out that the Japanese government is ready to invest large sums in the US at Trump’s demand, but is unwilling to invest in its own citizens, in the social security system. And this critical remark is apt: such government decisions can lead to a weakening of the country’s internal social capital, all for the sake of merely short-term diplomatic gains (and are they gains, really?).
Reiwa Shinsengumi proposes introducing a requirement for mandatory approval by the Diet of all decisions regarding negotiations with the US, thereby strengthening the accountability of Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Prime Minister to the parliament. This measure, in my opinion, would significantly constrain the Japanese government’s decision-making system. However, the very proposal is an attempt by deputies dissatisfied with the results of the Ishiba-Trump negotiations to prevent similar defeats in the future. Such proposals demonstrate a low level of trust in the ruling forces.
Reiwa Shinsengumi calls for respecting the memory of World War II, in particular, not forgetting the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and striving to prevent the use of nuclear weapons. The party strongly condemned Trump’s statement about the US bombing Iranian nuclear facilities—the US president stated that this act is similar to the atomic strikes on Japanese cities, as both allegedly ended wars. This statement, which justifies the atomic bombings, is completely unacceptable, and the Japanese government, in Reiwa Shinsengumi’s opinion, should have demanded an apology. Indeed, such an approach demonstrates an unwillingness to defend the country’s historical memory and also undermines trust in the consistency of the LDP and Komeito’s implementation of policies aimed at creating a world without nuclear weapons.
The Ignored Minority
The JCP and Reiwa Shinsengumi often provide insightful analysis of the political situation in Japan. They notice and bring to public attention what other political players miss (or do not want to address publicly). Nevertheless, these left-liberal parties remain in the minority: although the LDP has lost the trust of the electorate in recent years, right-wing populist players like Sanseito have proven more attractive to citizens than the JCP and Reiwa Shinsengumi. The right-wing wave in Japan is most likely temporary, but I doubt that a leftward turn will follow. Most likely, the Japanese establishment will become center-right or centerist, and the parties that were the subject of this article will remain a minority.
Daniil Romanenko, Japanologist researcher from the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
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