The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)-Komeito coalition lost its majority in the House of Representatives elections on October 27, 2024; it also lost majority in the House of Councilors on July 20, 2025. This article examines how this state of affairs could affect Japan’s foreign policy.
System of Checks and Balances Analysis
Nevertheless, the Diet has a number of levers that may at least slow down and complicate the decision-making process. The Diet determines the main strategy of international relations, sets the budget, and ratifies international agreements. In addition, the chairmen of the Security and Budget Committees are representatives of the opposition parties (Ishin no Kai and the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), respectively). This means that the discussion of initiatives passing through these committees, including those related to foreign policy, can be deliberately postponed by opposition dietmen. All of this allows the opposition to create difficulties for the coalition, forcing it to negotiate.
However, to what extent do the opinions of the LDP-Komeito coalition fundamentally differ from those of the opposition parties regarding foreign policy? To achieve a majority in both houses of the Diet, the coalition must unite with one of the parties: the CDP, the Democratic Party For the People (DPP), Ishin no Kai, Sanseito, or the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) and Reiwa Shinsengumi, if they join forces.
Moderate Pro-American Scenario
The CDP disagrees with the LDP on many issues, but the parties have similar views on foreign policy. Although the CDP is strongly against revising Article 9 of the Constitution and identifies its position as pacifist, it also considers it important to rely on the alliance with the United States, expand cooperation with the QUAD, and simultaneously establish a dialogue with the countries of East and Southeast Asia to minimize the damage from Donald Trump’s tariffs and defuse conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region. The party is not against a certain increase in the defense budget, although it, like the LDP, does not agree with Trump’s demands to increase it to 3-5% of GDP. The party advocates maintaining a dialogue with China. The LDP is unlikely to cooperate with the CDP on many other political issues, but this opposition party will support the coalition if it decides to choose a careful pro-American foreign policy strategy.
The Ishin no Kai has similar views on foreign policy to the CDP. Therefore, the LDP-Komeito will be able to easily adhere to a course similar to the one described above if they decide to support the Ishin no Kai plan to strengthen the role of Osaka as a “second capital” and increase investment in this city.
Anti-Chinese scenario
Sanseito and the DPP adhere to a tougher and more anti-Chinese position in foreign policy. On the one hand, the parties advocate a more independent foreign policy from the United States and are against Trump’s demands to increase the defense budget to 3-5% (but they consider the alliance with the US important). However, Sanseito and the DPP argue for more aggressive actions against China. In particular, they advocate for control over foreign investment in Japan (including ones from China), and, using and promoting the anti-Chinese paranoia, lobby for the introduction of an Anti-espionage Law. If the LDP decides to choose an anti-Chinese course, it can use the support of these forces in the Diet.
Pacifism and Independence, a Utopian Scenario
The positions of the JCP and Reiwa Shinsengumi differ significantly from those described above. The parties advocate for revising the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan, oppose increasing the defense budget, and seek to keep Japan’s reputation as a pacifist state that maintains peace in the Asia-Pacific region through international organizations. However, cooperation between the LDP-Komeito and these parties, as well as these two groups among themselves, seems highly unlikely due to the serious disagreements between them on many political issues. Given the limited support for parties like the JCP and Reiwa Shinsengumi in the country, the scenario of Japan becoming a pacifist state pursuing an independent foreign policy in the coming years seems utopian.
To Conclude
Despite another setback in the parliamentary elections, the LDP and Komeito still decide on the vector of the country’s foreign policy and control its implementation. The opposition is capable of creating certain difficulties, but it will not do so – it also advocates for increasing the country’s defense potential and improving relations with Trump, despite all the problems he creates. Therefore, a return to the ideals of pacifism is no longer considered a possible future. In the current situation, it is worth considering either a scenario of Japan realizing hedging politics in Asia with the support of an alliance with the US, or a more “independent scenario”, in which Japan spends more on defense, does not afraid to quarrel with China, and, ultimately, still dances to the tune of the United States.
Daniil Romanenko, Japanologist, researcher from the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences
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