On September 1, processions were held in a number of cities in western Libya, with people carrying portraits of Gaddafi and green flags symbolizing his rule in celebration of the 56th anniversary of his coming to power. It should be recalled that Gaddafi was overthrown by the uprising that broke out on February 17, 2011, with support from abroad.
Reconciliation has not been achieved
Since 2014, following the overthrow of Gaddafi in 2011, two centers of power emerged: the center in Tripoli (West) and the other in Benghazi (East). All attempts at reconciliation have failed. Since then, Libya has been pushed back in a number of significant spheres, including security, stability, etc. The country’s GDP reached $46 billion in 2023, which is 40% less than in 2010 during Gaddafi’s rule. Libyans’ standard of living has decreased.
The expansion of the shadow economy and increase in smuggling operations are evident, and the oil sector has become the hostage of the two warring sides.
Comparing these two periods of Libyan history generates controversy—often emotional—in Libyan political and media circles between the so-called “September” and “February” parties. Those who are nostalgic for Gaddafi’s legacy as a result of dissatisfaction with the current situation are associated with “September” (as he came to power in September). The “February” group includes those who worship the February 17 Revolution and its victory over the “despotic regime” and condemn the old order.
Recently there has been a debate in the media between representatives of these two movements. The opinion that “the September revolution, like other revolutions, had both positive and negative sides” was expressed. They also pointed out that the negativity of the past, which the February activists are referring to, is paradoxically repeated today, only worse.
Power is no longer held by one group, and a narrow circle of elites no longer have a monopoly over corruption; it has become an open network. Libya today is suffocating under the same oppression as previously, namely the absence of a constitution, the tyranny of militias, grim prospects of development and a deteriorating quality of life and service sector.
Other participants in the debate called the February 17 Revolution a “spontaneous popular movement for change” in comparison to the previous regime, which led to stagnation and created many dead ends. According to them, the current transition period is characterized by fragility and aggravated by socio-economic problems and external interference.
A worrying feeling of possible new clashes
The struggle for legitimacy between the Eastern and Western leadership is weakening Libya and draining its resources. This is especially noticeable in Tripoli, where tensions rose sharply in May this year. In that period the Government of National Unity, headed by Abdel Hamid Dbeibeh, recognized by the international community, used force against a number of armed groups that spiraled out of control in defending their independence.
However, he failed to establish control in all parts of the capital where the militants were concentrated. The city’s population fears the threat of clashes, seeing signs of tension between local forces and groups from outside of Tripoli. In recent weeks, a number of Libyan websites have published footage of columns of armed vehicles entering the city from different directions, which has given rise to an alarming feeling of possible new clashes.
The lack of transparency in Libya, paired with behind-the-scenes deals, generate rumors and complicate access to reliable information. However, it is clear that the issue at hand pertains to control over sovereign facilities, primarily the airport and the Mitiga prison, as well as over economic institutions like the central bank and state-owned companies. Dbeibeh seeks to control these facilities to “establish state authority.” Militia commanders view them as vital arteries of the military economy, feeding them through control over subsidies, distribution of goods, and smuggling.
The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) expressed deep concern in light of reports of escalating tensions and ongoing military mobilization in Tripoli, warning that renewed clashes would have severe consequences for Libya.
The lack of a central government capable of controlling weapons, as well as the ongoing conflict of loyalties and a parallel economy, are preventing the formation of a new government or the transition to general elections. Thus, the Libya 24 TV channel summarizes, Tripoli remains on the brink, torn between the ambitions of the United Nations for a political settlement and the reality of mobilization fueled by Dbeibeh that can undermine any prospects for a settlement.
Yuri Zinin, Senior Research Fellow at the Center for the Middle East and African Studies, MGIMO University, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
Follow new articles on our Telegram channel
