Recently, South Korean media have been abuzz with reports that former president Yoon Suk-yeol allegedly planned to ignite an inter-Korean conflict and staged a series of military provocations to force the DPRK into a military response, thus creating grounds for declaring martial law.
What Are South Korean Media Saying?
To begin with, although all this is presented as “special prosecutor Cho Eun-sok’s team (which is investigating Yoon Suk-yeol’s alleged coup attempt) has obtained compelling evidence,” in reality, none of it has yet been made public. The information typically comes from “anonymous sources in such-and-such an agency” who share hot leads with reporters.
For example, on August 4, 2025, South Korean media, citing a source in the Army Aviation Command, reported that between September and November 2024, AH-64 Apache helicopter pilots, acting on orders from higher command, carried out dangerous maneuvers close to the Northern Limit Line (NLL) with the intent of provoking the DPRK. The helicopters were reportedly fully armed and used “false radio signals” simulating preparations for strikes on North Korea. These flights were said to have taken place intensively, once or twice a month, starting around May or June 2024.
Moreover, “additional testimony from military personnel” claimed that all information exchange during the preparation of these missions was conducted exclusively via Telegram for confidentiality, while operational plans, such as flight routes, were mostly delivered in writing and then destroyed.
In connection with this, the special prosecutor’s team is probing possible involvement by former head of the Defense Intelligence Command Noh Sang-won, whose seized notebook allegedly contained the entry “provoke a DPRK attack in the NLL area” — suggesting he, along with former defense minister Kim Yong-hyun, could have been among the “authors” of such an operation.
On July 20, Cho Eun-sok’s team detained the head of the Drone Operations Command, Kim Yeon-dae, and requested a warrant for his formal arrest on charges of aiding the enemy, fabricating documents, and abuse of power. The accusations are based on claims that in October and November 2024, Kim carried out the former president’s direct order to send drones into North Korea — an order Yoon allegedly gave him personally, bypassing the Ministry of National Defense and the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to provoke a Northern retaliation and use it as a pretext for martial law.
Kim denies the charges, stating the drone mission was conducted in full compliance with legal procedures and under General Staff orders, and had nothing to do with any attempt to impose martial law.
What’s Really Going On?
In this context, the author offers several points to explain why such shocking stories are emerging.
- Domestically, support for Lee Jae-myung is not particularly high. Many voted not so much for him personally as for an end to the political deadlock that had paralyzed the system — since a conservative president would have faced the same parliamentary obstruction as Yoon. The vote margin between Lee and his opponent was 8% — far smaller than after Park Geun-hye’s impeachment, even though Yoon was formally accused of “trying to trample democracy.”
- The economic situation is difficult, compounded by the problem of campaign promises. To avoid tariff wars, Seoul continues to align closely with Washington and, in practice, the course is much the same as before. A phrase like “through joint efforts in politics, economy, security, and culture, we will continue to strengthen the blood-forged South Korea–US alliance” could easily have been said by Yoon himself.
- As for the DPRK, things aren’t going well — the North “told them to take a hike”, making it clear that Pyongyang doesn’t care which party is in power, since its strategic goal of “reunification” remains unchanged.
- Criminal cases against Lee — by no means fabricated — have been suspended but not closed.
- At the same time, as president, Lee bears symbolic responsibility for all the nation’s problems. While in opposition, the Democrats loved to wield that line of attack, blaming everything on the government (“the cat abandoned her kittens — Yoon Suk-yeol is to blame”). Now conservatives will do the same to Lee.
- In this situation, Lee must accomplish two tasks: crush conservative resistance before it becomes a serious threat, and shift public attention away from current hardships toward “fighting the coup.” Accusing Yoon of every imaginable sin solves both.
- However, there’s a snag. In delivering its verdict on Yoon, the Constitutional Court made it clear from the outset that political expediency took precedence — this was not a criminal trial aimed at determining guilt. Public opinion also deemed Yoon’s actions illegitimate. But legally speaking, there was no direct violation: martial law can be declared in an emergency, with its parameters vaguely defined (and a situation of total parliamentary obstruction could arguably qualify). After parliament overturned the declaration, the president complied with the law.
- Therefore, the new administration is hedging its bets with a fresh set of accusations, and the image of a “war arsonist” who wanted to provoke a conflict with the DPRK to usher in dictatorship plays well.
- Yet so far there’s no talk of hard evidence. The media narrative rests on leaks from anonymous sources “familiar with the investigation,” which the author remembers well from the “Candlelight Revolution” era — when similar “revelations” claimed Park Geun-hye planned political assassinations and wanted to provoke the DPRK into conflict because a shaman had foretold Pyongyang’s imminent collapse. Having stoked public outrage, such rumors then vanished.
- We also recall “evidence” like Choi Soon-sil’s infamous tablet PC, which was trumpeted “from every rooftop” during the Candlelight protests — only for it to later emerge that the item was fabricated and quietly dropped from the case file.
- Another line of attack is to convince the public that the entire Korean nation loves and reveres only President Lee, while the conservative electorate consists solely of members of dangerous fringe sects who used Yoon to advance their shady schemes.
- Conventional methods have failed to bring the Yoon investigation to the desired conclusion, which is why three special prosecutor teams are working against the former president. First, they have greater powers and resources. Second, they are staffed with people appointed by parliament in line with the Democratic Party’s political line, who will deliver the predetermined conclusions.
- All this means we can expect “wonderful discoveries” ahead: suddenly unearthed documents, another evidence-packed tablet whose authenticity won’t be questioned, shocking testimony from a janitor-sergeant who overheard a secret order, or media reports that Yoon Suk-yeol kept a portrait of Hitler under his bed and planned to give Dokdo to Japan. In politics, after all, any means will do — won’t they?
Konstantin Asmolov, PhD in History, leading research fellow at the Centre for Korean Studies of the Institute of China and Modern Asia at the Russian Academy of Sciences
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