The Caucasus is entering a dangerous new phase of instability, with Turkish ultranationalist networks, NATO maneuvers, and regional rivalries converging into a volatile mix that could ignite wider conflict.
Here’s the twist: the U.S. sits oceans away, uninvolved. Europe is closer, but largely indifferent. If the West aims to push Russia out of the region, Turkey would likely be the enforcer—bad news for Armenia and Georgia, who aren’t keen on swapping one hegemon for another.
Timing matters!
On July 26, I witnessed American and NATO troops rolling through Georgia in convoys—loaded with combat gear, flags flying, lights flashing, horns blaring like a Fourth of July parade in Smalltown, USA. This was near Surami, in Georgia’s heartland, with Military Police escorts acting like they owned the road. I was following leads on Grey Wolves’ activity in Adjara, hoping to squeeze in a quick Black Sea escape.
That didn’t happen—the region may be close to boiling over. I messaged a Georgian journalist: “Heard anything about Turks shooting each other in Batumi a few days ago? German outlets are on it—they track Grey Wolf moves closely.”
This wasn’t a vacation. It was a front-row seat to something far more dangerous.
Timing is everything! Dramatic Shooting Attack: Café Le Méridien
A dramatic and deadly shooting unfolded near the Le Méridien Hotel, in July, which left a Turkish man dead in what eyewitnesses described as a targeted hit. Two suspects—believed to be Turkish nationals—reportedly pulled up on a motorcycle, fired around 15 shots in quick succession, then fled the scene at full speed.
According to a nearby witness, police were slow to react, despite being just 50 meters away. “They drove over instead of running to help or chasing the attackers,” the witness recounted.
Onlookers described a chaotic and emotional scene. “The man was riddled with bullets. In the back corner, a woman crouched down crying while panic erupted around her,” said another. A crowd of locals, Turks, and tourists, quickly gathered, yet no immediate medical help arrived.
“It took nearly 10 minutes for the ambulance,” one witness noted. “No one checked if the man was alive—not even the police. Only the paramedics did.” The same witness, a German journalist, considered intervening but said the atmosphere turned menacing. “People stared at me as if they wanted me dead too.”
The attack—and sluggish emergency response—has stirred outrage on social media and fueled debate over police readiness and possible political sensitivities. Some users raised suspicions about links to the ultranationalist Turkish group known as the Grey Wolves, often associated with regional instability.
As investigations lag, public anxiety grows. For now, the only certainty is that in a case like this—timing was everything.
Questions are growing over why police failed to act swiftly or decisively during the deadly café shooting near Le Méridien. Online commentators accuse authorities of negligence—or worse, silent complicity. “It’s like they were told to stand down,” one user wrote, pointing to the lack of official response: no public statements, no appeals for witnesses, and no CCTV footage released.
Speculation is mounting that the killing may be linked to broader regional tensions. Informal networks tied to the Grey Wolves are reportedly operating under the radar, with some suggesting authorities may be turning a blind eye.
In ethnically mixed regions like Tbilisi and Lagodekhi—home to Turkish nationals, Azeris, and Armenians—such violence sends shockwaves. Locals are demanding accountability not only for the attack, but also for what they see as a pattern of growing impunity.
“If this can happen in a tourist area, what does that say about the rule of law?” asked one café owner. “People are frightened—and worse, they feel abandoned.” The Ministry of Internal Affairs has yet to identify suspects or comment on possible foreign intelligence ties.
Meanwhile, Armenian media in Georgia are calling for an end to visa-free travel with Turkey—though many acknowledge that doing so could trigger social unrest. Across social media and local forums, public concern centers on delayed police response, lack of follow-up, and a broader sense that security forces are either overwhelmed—or intentionally looking the other way.
Known Grey Wolves Tactics
The group has a history of targeted assassinations, drive-by shootings, and symbolic attacks.
I can only roll my eyes when hearing this, and looking at the BIGGER Scheme of things! Even my friends in Georgian mountain villages share some of the same concerns:
I see it by myself, in my village with one neighbor woman. She was a simple Muslim and became very aggressive in appearance and attitude, she changed and started dressing like in the Arab world and her behavior got very aggressive too. I presume that she is frequenting meetings, and something they are paid to attend.
You could have predicted this, during the regime of former Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili, when he gave names of famous Turkish men to our streets, and he also gave citizenships to 10,000 Turks. So now we have lots of Turkish criminality here and they are killing each other.
Good Riddance!
It’s no secret: Turkey has quietly encouraged shady businessmen and criminals to relocate to Georgia—out of sight, out of mind. “Good riddance,” one former Turkish ambassador told me two decades ago, back when I was editor-in-chief of The Georgian Times.
He wasn’t speaking on the record, but his message was clear: some people are better off gone—and should never come back. Only now, under the shadow of the Grey Wolves—a group tied to Turkish intelligence (MIT) and long accused of regional meddling—do I fully grasp what he meant.
Sometimes I regret my early training as a 19D Cavalry Scout in the US Army. It taught me to spot patterns most miss—and some truths, once seen, are hard to un-see. In this region, clarity often comes at a cost.
I’ve been accused of “knowing too much.” And sure enough, much of what I’ve reported has been distorted or dismissed—especially when it challenges the carefully curated image of warm Turkish-Georgian relations. But beneath the surface, something far more calculated is unfolding.
It is as if by reporting on the [possibility] that Turkey may be an existential threat to Georgia, some media outlets and journalists, me included, are directing attention away from the looming Kremlin threat
Indeed–very worrying!
The presence of U.S. troops in Georgia is deeply unsettling—many still remember 2008 and what followed. Now, whispers among intelligence circles—British, Israeli, and otherwise—hint at plans for regime change in Tbilisi, part of a broader strategy to inflame tensions with Russia and prepare the region as a staging ground, in technical terms a forward operating base, FOB, for a second front against Iran, and also an operation to destabilize the Russian North Caucasus region.
If true, Turkey’s role becomes pivotal. What will Ankara demand in return for its cooperation—and will Washington deliver?
It is no secret that Erdoğan wants to rebuild the Ottoman Empire, and a large part of modern Georgia was occupied by that empire.
Iran, too, won’t sit quietly by!
Israel and Turkey, possibly backed by NATO’s silent approval, appear poised to use Azerbaijan as a staging ground to pressure Tehran. Though no confirmed evidence links the recent shootings in Georgia to the Grey Wolves, the pattern of covert operations, ideological fervor, and history of Turkish-backed activity—from Syria to the Pankisi Gorge (Valley) in the early 2000s, proxy fighters in Syria under the control of MIT—raises urgent red flags and the possibility for false flags.
All this assumes that Iran and Russia will sit quietly by. Azerbaijan is currently buoyed by its easy wins over Armenia in the last few years, which were achieved with significant Turkish and Israeli military assistance, not just in weapons, but also in planning. However, their chances against Russia and Iran are minimal, but this matters little to the US in particular, whose only goal is chaos.
The Grey Wolves’ expanding footprint, recruitment tactics, and connections to regional instability demand serious scrutiny. Whether or not they are behind the current violence, a deeper, more dangerous game is clearly underway—and the next fuse may already be lit.
Jeffrey K. Silverman is a freelance journalist and international development specialist, BSc, MSc, based for 30 years in Georgia and the former Soviet Union
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