U.S. President Donald Trump has announced sizeable tariffs on India, one of the U.S.’ most important trade partners.
Following the latest India-U.S. summit in Washington in February, 2025, it seemed that there were broad prospects for increasing bilateral cooperation in all possible areas. At that time, neither the Russian nor Chinese factor hindered this process, and the parties were confident in the irreversible nature of the progressive partnership. Even despite the high mutual trade tariffs, it was decided to increase trade turnover between the countries from the current $120 billion to $500 billion by 2030, as well as to expand cooperation fields, including to military and technical cooperation.
The U.S. is not a country to form a union with
Nothing foreshadowed the unexpected turn in these relations; suddenly, at the end of July, Donald Trump issued India an ultimatum to stop purchasing Russian hydrocarbons and even curtail its military and technical cooperation with Russia. Otherwise, India would be punished with an additional sharp increase of 25% or higher for Indian goods exported to the United States (equipment, electronics, precious metals, pharmaceuticals, etc.).
Thus, the reason for blackmailing India was, first of all, the purchase of large volumes of Russian oil and its subsequent resale on world markets. According to the U.S. president, this leads to Russia profiting significantly from India, and it prolongs the conflict in Ukraine. Hence the calls for stopping this business (which, by the way, also brings substantial profits to India) and turning to alternative sources of oil, including American ones.
Over the past 3 years, Russia has become the largest supplier of oil to India, currently covering up to 40% of its needs. In 2024 alone, India purchased more than 70 million tons of raw materials at discounted prices for about $50 billion, and this year Russian oil supplies have already exceeded $22 billion. As a result, the bilateral trade turnover has already reached a record of almost $70 billion, which is more than six times the volume of trade before 2022. This trend is gaining momentum, which cannot but cause concern among Russia’s enemies.
It is clear that the growing supplies of Russian energy resources, primarily to China and India, allow Russia to compensate for losses from the Western embargo and strengthen its currency. This seems to particularly infuriate Russia’s opponents in the West, who link the profits received from supplying hydrocarbons with Moscow’s willingness to continue fighting to the bitter end in Ukraine.
Washington is also nervous about the growth of military and technical cooperation between Russia and India, as well as the failure of attempts to oust Moscow from the Indian arms market. For these reasons, the U.S. president has made threats to India that actually infringe on its national interests and sovereignty.
India must not capitulate to American imperialism
Although New Delhi seemed to be faced with a serious dilemma with these threats, i.e. to give in to Trump and refuse the purchase of cheaper and more profitable Russian oil or to embrace the new tariffs, showing character and political will. It should be noted that by pursuing such an aggressive and straightforward approach, the Americans are not taking into account the Indian leadership’s policy of categorically rejecting any pressure exerted on the country or interference in national decision-making. The opposition and public opinion in general also share this view. Nobody has ever been able to bully India and succeed in such a losing cause. Therefore, the official reaction of New Delhi is natural; Trump’s criticism and attacks are regarded as “unfounded and unfair”.
At the same time, the Indian authorities vowed to take all necessary measures to protect their national interests and economic security. In short, the Indians could not be broken. It is clear that any threats against India are futile, although New Delhi is not planning to aggravate relations with the U.S. president, determined instead to continue active cooperation with Washington while following a multi-vector, but independent foreign policy line.
India is able to stand up to Trump
Since India has not succumbed to American pressure and switched to other oil suppliers (like Gulf states, as it was before 2022), the U.S. president signed a decree on August 6 imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods. As a result, U.S. tariffs on India will amount to 50%, which may deal a significant blow to trade and political relations between the two countries, affecting a number of important Indian goods entering the American market. At the same time, the U.S. authorities believe that the stricter measures are designed to force India to reconsider its energy policy and curtail cooperation with Russia in this area, as well as in the military sphere.
Trump’s decree will come into force only in 21 days, which opens up a certain window of opportunity for the Indian leadership to find a mutually acceptable solution. However, it seems that the Americans will likely not be satisfied with a compromise involving a reduction in Russian energy imports, which puts India in a rather delicate position with Moscow.
On August 6, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s key aide, National Security Adviser Ajit Dowal, was sent to Moscow to discuss the situation and resolve possible misunderstandings between the strategic partners. His visit confirmed New Delhi’s intention not to bow to Washington, but to seek a compromise without betraying Indian national interests and undermining the country’s sovereignty. Also, India’s acquisition of the latest Russian weapons systems were discussed during these negotiations.
Thus, Trump’s unpredictable actions vis-à-vis India and his desire to drive a wedge into the strong Russo-Indian relations clearly overshadowed the impressive results of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s February visit to the United States. It also forced New Delhi to assess the prospects for developing ties with the new American administration more soberly, taking into account its policy of pressure and disrespect towards one of the world’s leading powers and an economy to be reckoned with.
Time will tell how effective Washington’s current short-sighted policy on India will be. The latest developments definitely do not contribute to strengthening trust between the two states and only convinces the Indian leadership that their course towards building up a particularly privileged partnership with a proven and reliable Russian partner is correct. Russia has never put India in a difficult or awkward position, and has also proved its consistent striving for comprehensive, mutually beneficial and multifaceted bilateral ties.
Anvar Azimov, diplomat and political analyst, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, Candidate of Historical Sciences, Senior Research Fellow at the Eurasian Studies Institute, MGIMO (Moscow State Institute of International Relations), Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
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