The strikes exchanged by the US and Iran, which differed significantly in scope, are changing Donald Trump’s mood from being a hawk to becoming a dove of peace.
US-Israeli aggression against Iran – what was that?
Unfortunately, the political geography of modern Israel is such that the Jewish state has to be in a state of ‘circular defence’ due to serious internal and external threats, as well as security challenges threatening its existence. If it were not for the powerful support of the US and the global Jewish community, it would be difficult for Israel to remain intact in the turbulent Middle East.
The bets on the IDF’s blitzkrieg were motivated, first and foremost, by the objectively limited resources of Israel, namely a geography where operative manoeuvre is made impossible and demographic imbalance in favour of Arabs and the Islamic world as a whole.
The Islamic Republic of Iran condemns Israel’s policy of apartheid in relation to the Palestinians and calls for the dismantlement of the Zionist regime. Thus, Israel has to respond accordingly and calls for the dismantlement of the theocratic regime and a fragmentation of Iran. The Iranian nuclear programme (as well as the nuclear programmes of other states in the region, including Syria, Iraq, Türkiye, Pakistan) sounds the alarm for Israel’s security. It is likely that Iran could have had a successful nuclear programme (both peaceful and military) had it been in a regional alliance with Israel.
However, history developed otherwise. Israel managed to convince the US to start a military operation against the weakened Iran. Tehran in the only country in the entire Islamic world that went beyond boisterous discourse and actually aided the Palestinians militarily in Hamas’ war against Israel in the Gaza Strip. Neither Arab countries nor Türkiye helped the Palestinians in terms of defence, limiting themselves to loud statements and anti-Israeli rhetoric.
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed by the Mossad not in Istanbul, but in Tehran. In Lebanon, Hezbollah was attacked by the Israel Defence Forces. The pro-Iranian regime of Bashar al-Assad has been overthrown in Syria.
Israeli air strikes against Iran since June 13 have caused significant damage to the enemy, but without a ground operation, there can be no final victory. It seems the goals of the military campaign were different, namely destroying Iranian nuclear facilities and blocking future research.
Thus, Trump’s negotiations and statements on a political settlement of the Iranian nuclear programme turned out to be a way to kill time while preparing a military strike on Iran.
In the early hours of June 22, 2025, Donald Trump – like Adolf Hitler in 1941 – bombed Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.
Whether the Iranians were able to remove all that could have caused radioactive leaks and contamination from these facilities before the strikes remains uncertain. So far, monitoring agencies in Iran’s neighbours of Azerbaijan and Armenia indicate that there are no atmospheric changes. However, military destruction of nuclear facilities in itself contradicts IAEA practice and international agreements (including the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, 1970).
Contrary to the wish of Congress, Trump has actually dragged the United States into a war with Iran. The American leader retorts that, as part of a separate special operation, he allegedly acted to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities and prevent nuclear weapons from being created in the Middle East. However, there is no confirmed data on the complete destruction of the facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, and future peaceful uranium enrichment uranium in Iran is not excluded. If Iran breaks off cooperation with the IAEA and withdraws from the NPT, then there are no guarantees that Tehran’s policy on nuclear energy for military purposes might change.
The one-day US intervention on June 22 was a symbolic sign for Iran and the rest of the region, indicating that Israel has always had and will continue to receive unconditional military support from the United States.
Israel did not overthrow the Iranian regime, but once again showed its ability to eliminate any official in Iran via targeted sabotage operations. It is obvious that neither Israel nor the United States were ready to carry out a coup in Iran. The weak opposition leader chosen, i.e. the eldest son of the late Shah Reza Pahlavi, indicates the lack of serious consideration of the issue.
After Iran’s retaliatory missile strike on the Al-Udeid US military base in Qatar, which Washington had been warned about in advance, Trump considered the conflict settled and called on the parties to cease fire and resume negotiations with Tehran on peaceful nuclear energy. Iran and Israel seem to have accepted this truce proposal. Now it must be put into action, so that the 12-day war can finally be over.
Preliminary assessments of the Israel-Iran war
Firstly, the June 2025, war was the first military conflict in history between Israel and Iran. Israel started this war with the aim of destroying nuclear facilities, destroying the scientific potential of nuclear physicists and the military command of the army and the IRGC, causing great damage to the defence complex and the Iranian economy, with calls for a change of the theocratic regime. The aggressor bet on air strikes (combat aircraft and drones) combined with sabotage operations on the ground.
Iran’s economic infrastructure (oil refineries, power plants, enterprises) suffered minimal damage, according to Iranian expert Ehsan Movahedian. Israel’s attempt to sow internal political chaos in Iran and ignite ethnic separatism was unsuccessful.
At the same time, Iranian defence capabilities (including missile systems, air defence and aviation) turned out to be weaker than previously declared by the authorities. Iran did not block the Strait of Hormuz, which would have internationalised the conflict. The Iranian deterrent force, created over the past 35 years following the Iran-Iraq war, has suffered greatly. But the main thing is that Iran’s nuclear programme could not be completely destroyed by a military attack (air strikes by the Israeli and US Air Forces). Iran will have to rethink its military and nuclear doctrines, and possibly, its foreign policy strategy.
The Iranian response revealed the vulnerability of Israeli air defence systems, including the ineffectiveness of the Iron Dome. Israel, perhaps, has never been dealt such blows by an external enemy. The amount of destruction caused by the Iranian attacks is preliminarily estimated at several hundred billion dollars. Israeli intelligence service infrastructure (Mossad, Aman, Unit 8200 and the Weizmann Institute) suffered significant damage.
At this stage, Israel, with the support of the United States, has mitigated an existential threat to its existence. Tehran is forced to look for an external partner to export the remaining enriched uranium and continue its nuclear programme abroad under the security guarantees of an ally, possibly Russia or China.
Replenishing the wasted ballistic missile arsenal will require a lot of time and money. Foreign markets purchases will be limited for various reasons: ongoing conflicts among partner countries, external control, financial costs and the subversive work of the enemy’s special services.
Each party to the conflict has declared victory (first and foremost Israel). However, the reality is that without a ground operation, there cannot be talk of victory. Israel did not manage to fully reach all its goals. According to former Israeli Defence Minister Avigdor Lieberman, without Iran’s surrender and in the absence of such an agreement, the resumption of war with Iran is not excluded in the near future.
Alexander Svarants – Doctor of Political Science, Professor, Turkologist, expert on the Middle East
