On May 31 – June 1 of this year, Singapore hosted the latest edition of the Shangri-La Dialogue, marking the 22nd iteration of this international forum. Since its inception, the event has served as a platform for addressing the most pressing security challenges in the Indo-Pacific region.
About the Shangri-La Dialogue
This very platform was established precisely to discuss emerging aspects of unfolding global processes that bear almost no resemblance to what occurred in relatively recent political history. Annually, and at approximately the same time each year, it convenes at Singapore’s luxurious Shangri-La Hotel.
Each session of the forum highlights notable developments within the broader geopolitical trend mentioned earlier. The current meeting is no exception. Three key aspects deserve particular attention, shaped by: Europe’s ongoing quest—both collectively and through individual nations—to redefine its role in a rapidly transforming world order; The extraordinary complexity and inherent contradictions characterizing the bilateral dynamic between the two current leading powers (the U.S. and China); Japan’s emergence as a significant independent strategic actor.
French President at another Shangri-La Dialogue
First and foremost, it should be noted that this year’s forum featured a historic first: a European leader of the highest rank—French President Emmanuel Macron—served as the guest of honor, a traditional fixture of every Shangri-La Dialogue session. He inaugurated the latest round of the Dialogue with a keynote address that merits at least a cursory examination.
Firstly, President Macron positioned himself not only as the head of one of the leading European countries, but also tried to speak on behalf of the EU as a whole. Secondly, Macron explained why he took part in the forum this time (although invitations had been issued earlier), noting that Europe on the one hand, and the Indo-Pacific region and ASEAN on the other, were entering a period of “new specific relations”. The ASEAN Association, which unites 10 countries of Southeast Asia, was mentioned not by chance, as it is in this sub-region that all the “specifics” of the current regional situation are particularly clear. And before going to the event under discussion, the French President visited two Southeast Asian countries, namely Vietnam and Indonesia.
However, the key current feature of the evolving situation—not only in Southeast Asia but also in the world as a whole—is rooted in fundamental shifts in U.S. policy, which are pushing Washington’s recent European allies toward closer engagement with its main rival, China. The issue of Europe seeking a new balance in its relations with the U.S. and China has taken a prominent place, both in the discussed report by E. Macron and in the speech by French Minister of Defense S. Lecornu.
In this regard, the harsh remarks against China by K. Kallas, i.e. the current head of the EU Foreign Ministry, sounded an obvious dissonance. The reason for this was the problem of overlapping Chinese-Philippine territorial claims in the South China Sea. China’s reaction to this outburst, which worked clearly in “antiphase” with the report of the president of one of the leading European countries, which Beijing regards as a quite independent state, was quite expected. As follows, in particular, from the June 7 telephone conversation between the Foreign Ministers of China and France.
It should be noted, by the way, that in recent years the Russian Federation has also reacted positively to the powerful attractive impulse coming from Asia. However, this should not mean a complete breakdown of Russia’s relations with Europe. Another “window” for the resumption of always contradictory, but also fruitful ties may well appear in the deaf wall that is forming between them. Let us hope that the current propaganda paranoia of mutual dislike, inflated from both sides and involving “history” in a special and selective interpretation, will not lead to another European tragedy. As it has already happened twice in the last century.
The U.S. and China at the Latest Shangri-La Dialogue
Commentators noted a stark contrast in the level of representation between the two leading global powers at the latest Shangri-La Dialogue. While the U.S. was represented by its Secretary of Defense, China sent a military official not even of second- or third-tier importance. This fully reflects the growing complexities in bilateral relations, under which Beijing has “paused” its engagement on the American front—apparently waiting for Washington to send signals indicating a willingness to resume substantive discussions on the various issues in their bilateral ties.
And this tactic worked. On May 10-11, the first round of talks on resolving the “tariff problem”, which threatens to completely block these relations as a whole, took place in Geneva. Commenting on the results of the talks and the current state of relations with Beijing, US President Trump uttered the word “unification”. Commentators have not unreasonably assessed this fact as evidence of Trump’s shifting position in favor of China on the main irritant of bilateral relations, which remains the Taiwan issue. The emerging positive trend in relations between the two leading world players was confirmed by the fact that D. Trump and Xi Jinping finally had a telephone conversation.
However, this trend stood in direct contrast to the speech delivered at the latest Shangri-La Dialogue by Secretary of Defense P. Hagset under the telling title “New U.S. Security Ambitions in the Indo-Pacific”. Moreover, in adopting this confrontational posture toward China outlined in the report, the defense secretary is by no means alone within the current U.S. political establishment.
Let us note again that even during his first presidential term, Donald Trump faced opposition from an anti-China faction led by then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. This serves as further evidence that within the U.S. itself there exists a substantial foundation of resistance to (hypothetical) attempts by the current president to improve relations with China.
As for the brief statement by Beijing’s representative, it maintained a neutral-to-positive tone and focused on the rather specific issue of maritime security cooperation.
Japanese Defense Minister at the 22nd Shangri-La Dialogue
Like Europe, Japan now finds itself in a state of heightened uncertainty regarding its positioning at the global gaming table—a situation triggered by the aforementioned policy innovations of the world’s leading power. However, unlike Europe, Japan remains America’s most critical ally. Moreover, given the ongoing shift of the geopolitical center of gravity to the Indo-Pacific, Washington is likely to place even greater strategic value on its alliance with Tokyo.
By sending some positive signals to China, Tokyo is simultaneously demonstrating a strengthening of its comprehensive presence in Southeast Asia, where the Philippines is becoming its main partner. Just at the time of the next Shangri-La Dialogue, the Japanese parliament ratified an agreement with this country on cooperation in defense and security.
Signed in July last year, this Agreement bears close resemblance to the one Japan has maintained with Australia since 2022. At the Shangri-La Dialogue, Philippine Defense Secretary G. Teodoro emerged as a principal interlocutor for his Japanese counterpart G. Kihara, who delivered a noteworthy address at the forum.
The 15th trilateral U.S.-Japan-Australia defense ministers’ meeting was held here in Singapore. It resulted in the adoption of a Joint Statement, which was commented on by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, as expected.
Finally, we note again that the content of the latest Shangri-La Dialogue reflected all the contradictory features that accompany the current stage of the “Great World Game”.
Vladimir Terekhov, expert on Asia-Pacific issues
