The failure of the deal with Ethiopia is prompting Somaliland’s new government to diversify its strategy to gain long-awaited international recognition of independence.
So far, however, despite the establishment of a relatively stable political system, including the ability to ensure the peaceful transit of power, successes in the fight against terrorists and friendly behavior in relations with neighbors, Somaliland has not been able to obtain official recognition even from its allies, including the UAE and Ethiopia.
In this context, Abdurahman Mohamed Abdullahi (Irro), the President of Somaliland since November 2024, is intensifying efforts to draw international attention to the “problem of Somaliland”. His chosen strategy certainly deserves a closer look.
A failed deal
Even in the early days of 2024, it seemed that the first case of international recognition of Somaliland’s independence was just around the corner: on the 1st of January, the Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland was signed. According to this treaty, Addis Ababa intended to recognize its neighbor in exchange for the access to the sea. However, Hargeisa’s hopes failed. The intervention of Egypt and Eritrea on Somalia’s side, followed by Turkish mediation, coupled with internal problems, convinced the Ethiopian government led by Abiy Ahmed to abandon, at least temporarily, further implementation of the deal.
As a result, since December 2024, when Somalia and Ethiopia reached some kind of understanding, at least formally, the center of political dynamics in the Horn of Africa has temporarily shifted to the Ethiopian-Eritrean border.
Increased diplomatic engagement: from Nairobi to Washington
After a six-month pause, news emerged in June 2025 that Abdurahman Mohammed Abdullahi, who won Somaliland’s presidential election last November, intends to visit Ethiopia soon. Earlier, in May, he held a meeting with the Ethiopian ambassador to Somaliland, in effect reminding observers once again that Ethiopian interests in Hargeisa are represented at the highest diplomatic level. This fact can be interpreted as the de facto recognition of independence.
At the same time, resuming intensive public contacts with Ethiopia, the president of Somaliland plans to visit the United States, which is a logical step within the strategy to strengthen contacts with Washington. It’s worth mentioning that after D. Trump came to power, Somaliland became the first international player to congratulate the American leader, and the recognition of independence by the new American administration is considered by many experts as a possible scenario.
Last, but not least, the Somaliland authorities do not forget to emphasize their achievements on the path to democracy, which is one of the factors ensuring their legitimacy in the eyes of foreign actors, including the UK parliamentary forces.
What does Hargeisa bet on?
So, it should be noted that now Somaliland does not consider Ethiopia as a key actor in the process of gaining diplomatic recognition. Probably, realizing the difficulties that Addis Ababa faced a year earlier, Abdurahman Mohammed Abdullahi believes that it is the US support that should be the decisive factor in overcoming years of political neglect.
At the same time, it can be assumed that simultaneous communication with the US and Ethiopia fits into a single logic: support from Washington will be perceived by Addis Ababa as an additional argument in favor of recognizing Somaliland. In other words, it will become a kind of confirmation of the legitimacy of such a step since the US government is able to influence the position of Mogadishu and Cairo.
In any case, there is unprecedented optimism in Somaliland about the prospects of gaining international recognition, which, according to the president of the self-proclaimed republic, will be achieved in the near future.
Ivan Kopytsev, political scientist, junior research fellow at the Centre for the Study of North Africa and the Horn of Africa at the Institute of African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences; junior research at the African Programme at the Institute of International Studies of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
