In recent weeks, the Horn of Africa has continued to treat the expert community to a series of political developments that require careful reflection and offer a wide field for interpretation.

In the context of a long lull in Libya, when the parties have given up direct fighting and toughened political rhetoric, the first steps towards the restoration or rather the creation of some semblance of national institutions are being observed. The Armed Forces have not been spared from such processes. It is in this logic that the recent visits of Lieutenant General Mohammed Al-Haddad, Chief of General Staff of the Western Libyan forces

In the post-colonial history of Africa, Egypt has steadily remained one of the most active players, whose well-established ambitions and resources form the prerequisites for Cairo’s active participation in political processes far beyond the «land of the pyramids». The recent defence and security agreement with Somalia was another step by Egypt, aimed (among other things) at creating favourable negotiating and (if necessary) strategic positions vis-à-vis the increasingly ambitious Ethiopia.

At the end of July 2024, the Malian armed forces, supported by the PMC Wagner, launched another offensive in the north of the country against the formations of the unrecognised Tuareg Azawad state: this time the fighting took place on the very border with Algeria, in remote desert areas near the town of Tin Zaouatine…

Against the background of the intensification of Ethiopian foreign policy, which has highlighted the issue of obtaining direct access to the sea, the unrecognised state of Somaliland, which had previously remained on the periphery of geopolitics, suddenly found itself in the centre of the unfolding confrontation…

At SPIEF, Deputy Head of the Sovereign Council of Sudan Malik Agar arrived in Russia along with other high-ranking guests. According to experts, the purpose of the visit is to re-conclude an agreement on the construction of a Russian logistics base in Port Sudan, the implementation of which will lead to significant changes in the balance of power in the Red Sea region…

Since 2011 Libya has somewhat been a ‘terra incognita’ on the political map of the world. The processes happening within the country, as well as the sporadic conflicts, are a product of too many factors to be fathomable for most people. Furthermore, an assessment of the current situation, including considering the plurality of political institutions and the prospects for ending the year-long crisis of Libyan statehood, is very intriguing from the point of view of the regional security architecture and interstate cooperation…

Against the background of the emergence of information about the adoption by the House of Representatives of Ethiopia of an amendment regulating the process of removing political parties from the list of terrorist organizations, there are wide opportunities for analysis and forming the most substantiated interpretations of such a development, which can be considered not only as formalising the existing balance of power, but also as a political gesture aimed at reconciling the federal centre with the armed opposition…

The more than year-long armed conflict between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has already had dire consequences, including a humanitarian crisis, destruction of infrastructure and paralysis of government institutions. At the same time, its impact on the situation in the region should not be underestimated: without exception, all of Sudan’s neighbors are to some extent linked to the parties to the conflict…

The trend in recent years and even months to talk more and more frequently and actively about the Global South as such, and about Africa in particular, may in some cases be seen as a fashionable, superficial fad, but it is not without a significant practical component. Even a cursory analysis of the dynamics of bilateral meetings and summits with an “African focus” is the most vivid illustration of the “turn to Africa”…

In recent months, the Horn of Africa has become one of the world’s most active sources of political news. No sooner have analysts discussed the reasons for the signing, possible ways of implementation and possible consequences of the Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland, than new stories have appeared on the agenda. In particular, we are talking about the agreement signed between Turkey and the Federal Government of Somalia on 22 February 2024. Formally, the Turkish side undertook only to provide…

A year ago, any talk of a hypothetical alliance between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Fano would have gone no further than greetings, but today the situation has changed. Once at the forefront of the anti-Tigray forces, Fano’s Amharic nationalist organisation has come under attack from its new ally, the Ethiopian government led by Abiy Ahmed, while its former antagonist, the TPLF, has managed to restore peace with the federal centre…