The Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda have agreed on an immediate and unconditional ceasefire following a meeting between President Felix Tshisekedi and President Paul Kagame in Doha.
“The agreement between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda on a ceasefire was reached after a meeting between Presidents Felix Tshisekedi and Paul Kagame in Doha, owing to the mediation of the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani”, stated Tina Salama, the spokeswoman for the President of the DRC.
Although many questions remain unanswered, it would be useful to consider the current and future prospects of this issue.
Qatar has surpassed Angola
The Doha meeting was somewhat unexpected, even though Qatar’s contacts with the leaders of both Rwanda and DRC have been continuous in recent months, and especially given that negotiations between the DRC authorities and the rebels from the Congo River Alliance (L’Alliance fleuve Congo, AFC) were scheduled to take place on March 18 under the auspices of Angola, the current chair country of the African Union. The AFC, the main driver of which is represented by the March 23 Movement, is abbreviated M23.
These negotiations were supposed to take place in the Angolan capital of Luanda, but the rebel representatives ultimately said they would not take part in them after the European Union imposed sanctions against a number of rebel figures. By the way, it is worth noting that the EU also imposed sanctions against Rwanda, after which the country’s authorities severed diplomatic relations with Belgium, which Kigali considers the instigator of the sanctions.
For this reason, the Doha meeting between the presidents of DRC and Rwanda, with the participation of the Qatari Emir, was somewhat unexpected for some observers. There is, however, not much to be surprised over: Qatar has close relations with Rwanda and maintained positive relations with the Kinshasa authorities, simultaneously having international mediation ambitions, including in existing conflicts, while promoting its own interests.
At this point, Qatar’s initiative does not aim to replace African ones, including Angola’s efforts, rather hoping to support the Angolan and Kenyan initiative (but it is clear to all that Qatar is playing its own game).
The practical side of the question, prospects
As for the current and future prospects, there are still more questions than answers. Firstly, the full consent of the parties involved is necessary for the implementation of the ceasefire. Even if this is the case, the question remains as to how much this truce will be respected and for how long.
After all, the crisis in the DRC has been going on for too long and, so far, no appropriate solutions have been found to resolve it. Today, the rebels in the east of the country have the upper hand and control two major cities, Goma and Bukavu (the 6th and 7th of the largest cities of the DRC, respectively), and, so far, there has been no significant change on the part of Kinshasa.
Moreover, instead of looking for real strategic solutions, the government in Kinshasa continues to repeat the same mistakes, both in searching for ‘solutions’ from Western regimes (that will never bring peace to an exhausted country), and in the naive expectation that by selling even more national sovereignty one will be able to count on stability. Sometimes there is a clear feeling that the Kinshasa authorities think exclusively about their own security in the capital, without any serious desire to solve the problems of the country as a whole. In this case, should we be surprised by the successes achieved on the ground by the AFC/M23 rebels, even if they were achieved due to the direct support of the Rwandan authorities?
Today, the Kinshasa authorities are trying to cling on to any minor success. Sources close to Kinshasa are trying to call the Doha meeting a success for the DRC, as it allowed for a direct dialogue with the main supporter of rebel groups in eastern Congo (Rwanda). Still, it is not possible to speak of success so far due to the lack of clarity about the prospects for establishing real peace and, even more broadly, resolving such a neglected situation. Moreover, the DRC authorities openly admit that they cannot independently resist neighbouring Rwanda, which is several times smaller in area and several times smaller in population than the DRC. This once again confirms the strategic helplessness of the modern DRC.
In this regard and as a mediator, Qatar keeps progressing and advancing its own international ambitions, while failing to provide a real and lasting solution to the DRC’s many problems, especially in the security sector. Nevertheless, its actions deserve close attention.
Mikhail Gamandiy-Egorov, entrepreneur, political observer, and expert on Africa and the Middle East
