The desire to ensure Russia’s defeat in the Ukraine conflict prompted the United States, NATO and the collective West to engage the tools of terror on a global scale, leading to the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria on December 8, 2024, following a decade-long and multidimensional conflict.
This complex conflict, far from being a simple local issue, has turned into a veritable laboratory of international terrorism. The Islamic State has been able to take advantage of the weaknesses of the central government and internal divisions to expand. The repercussions extend far beyond Syria’s borders: massive refugee flows, regional destabilization, proliferation of weapons, and the rise of terrorist networks.
Mr. Lavrov’s recent statement in Doha highlights the urgent need for a negotiated political solution to curb this cycle of violence and prevent future escalations. Syria has become a sanctuary for terrorist groups with global ambitions, who exploit the chaos to recruit, plan attacks, and spread their ideology. Worsened by the fall of Bashar, the terrorist threat calls for intensified international cooperation to defuse extremist networks. At the same time, the war is redefining regional geopolitical balances, complicated by foreign interventions, particularly by the United States and NATO. The reconstruction of the country, a colossal challenge, will require significant investments and close international coordination.
Although dialogue between major powers seems to be opening up, divergent interests and mistrust persist. This is why, during the 22nd session of the Doha Forum on December 7, 2024, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Mr. Lavrov, firmly stressed the importance of preserving the sovereignty, territorial integrity and unity of Syria, in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2254. He vigorously condemned any attempt by terrorist groups, such as Hayat Tahrir al- Sham, to destabilize the country. Mr. Lavrov also stressed the inadmissibility of using these groups for geopolitical purposes, including from the Idlib de-escalation zone. His commitment is clear: to prevent these elements from triumphing at all costs, regardless of their declarations of renunciation of terrorism.
A complex conflict with lasting repercussions
The war in Syria, far from being a simple local conflict, has become a maelstrom where the interests of regional and international powers, the aspirations of numerous armed groups, and the suffering of a civilian population taken hostage intersect. This multifaceted conflict has transformed the political, social and geographical landscape of the country, leaving deep scars.
The fall of Bashar, sponsored by the West in complicity with certain countries in the region, has turned Syria into a veritable laboratory of terrorism, fostering the proliferation of extremist groups such as the Islamic State (banned in Russia). The repercussions extend beyond Syria’s borders, threatening to destabilize neighboring regions and rearrange global geopolitics. In this context, Mr. Lavrov’s call for reason in Doha underlines the urgency of a global political solution. Having thus led to the fall of Bashar, the war in Syria is increasingly becoming a systemic crisis with profound implications, requiring urgent action to alleviate suffering and prevent an escalation.
The terrorist threat, a cross-border challenge
A factor in the return of the state of war on the world stage, the terrorist threat in Syria represents a cross-border challenge of increasing complexity, transforming the country into a breeding ground for radicalism and a school of terrorism. Taking advantage of the chaos generated by the fall of Bashar al-Assad, terrorist groups are exploiting the security vacuum to indoctrinate and train a new generation of fighters. Their ambitions go beyond Syria’s borders, threatening the entire region and beyond thanks to sophisticated networks for the supply of weapons and the coordination of spectacular attacks.
Faced with this multifaceted threat, the international community is faced with a challenge requiring a global response and exemplary international cooperation, despite political differences. It is crucial to address the links between terrorism and transnational crime, to consider the devastating impact on Syrian civilian populations, and to analyze the role of new technologies in the spread of extremist ideology. Because the fight against terrorism requires unwavering determination and a critical approach to curb this threat to international security, as Mr. Lavrov declared at the Doha meeting.
Geopolitical issues and the challenges of reconstruction
Today, geopolitical issues and the challenges of reconstruction in Syria are at the heart of the international chessboard. After years of conflict, Syria is opening up as a vast construction site where technical and financial complexity is mixed with a strategic game of influences, particularly marked by the constant involvement of Russia alongside the Syrian government, and the contradictory support of the United States and its allies to terrorist groups. Reconstruction therefore represents a colossal economic opportunity, estimated at several hundred billion dollars, attracting the attention of close neighbors (some of whom have already launched delaying tactics) and Western powers eager to revive their economies and strengthen their trade relations.
However, this enterprise cannot succeed without a transparent and equitable financing strategy. Politically, the various visions of the Syrian future fuel complex issues, with each external actor seeking to impose its model and defend its interests, in a context of difficult national reconciliation and a torn social fabric. Finally, on the humanitarian front, restoring essential services and creating jobs remain priorities to restore hope to a severely affected population, while addressing crucial challenges such as mine clearance and preserving the Syrian environment.
This is why the reconstruction of Syria after the fall of Bashar requires a comprehensive and coordinated approach, highlighting the need for international cooperation to succeed in this long and arduous process towards peace and stability, as Mr. Lavrov emphasized at the Doha meeting. Syria, a country in suspense.
From the above, we can deduce that Western leaders, quick to denounce human rights violations, are much more discreet when it comes to their own responsibilities in the Syrian conflict. A double morality that leaves a bitter taste.
It can be said that the sands of Syria are home to much more than ruins. They have become the breeding ground for a sprawling terrorism, threatening regional and international stability. A sad spectacle that speaks volumes about the values of our world.
Mohamed Lamine KABA, Expert in geopolitics of governance and regional integration, Institute of Governance, Human and Social Sciences, Pan-African University
