А security belt around Afghanistan can improve the national security of its neighbors and help neutralize extremism, international terrorism, drug and arms trafficking, and illegal migration.
With the Taliban coming to power in the summer of 2021, attention to the security belt around Afghanistan increased. In 2022, Tajikistan asked the Collective Security Treaty Organization to create a security belt around Afghanistan.
A few days after the killing of a Tajik officer in the Badakhshan region, Tajikistan said at the June 2023 meeting of foreign ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization that it was important to create a “security belt” around Afghanistan.
Tajikistan proposed the creation of a security belt around Afghanistan at the May 2023 meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Afghanistan’s neighboring countries, Iran, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, also discussed the proposal to create a “security belt” around Afghanistan at the Tashkent 2023 summit.
In addition, in November 2024, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) supported the proposal of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to develop a comprehensive joint plan to create a security belt around Afghanistan.
Opportunities
In the past three years, a huge flow of refugees from Afghanistan has flowed into all neighboring countries, especially Iran and Pakistan. This became a security issue in more areas. Countries are partially obliged to accept refugees, but members of terrorist groups under the guise of refugees poses a threat to all neighbors.
Despite more than 3 years since the Taliban came to power, waves of migration are still ongoing and pose challenges for Afghanistan’s neighbors, especially Iran and Pakistan.
Also, any economic conditions and economic insecurity, poverty, and unemployment for Afghan citizens can create economic problems caused by migration to Afghanistan’s neighboring countries.
With a security belt around Afghanistan, it is possible to prevent the infiltration of paramilitary forces affiliated with terrorist groups among refugees, the spread of social insecurity, and control the wave of refugees in the region.
The lack of alternative livelihoods and economic insecurity, poverty, and unemployment in Afghanistan lead to an increase in drug exports not only to neighbors but also to the entire world.
The neighbors will also play the role of a buffer zone. Since Afghanistan’s share of the global heroin market is 90 percent, cooperation between different countries within the framework of the security belt plan can lead to an effective fight against drug trafficking and chemicals for the production of industrial drugs.
The Taliban’s method of controlling extremist groups is to weaken, relocate, and limit their independence and integration. However, in the past year, there have been numerous signs and indications of the presence and power of terrorist groups in Afghanistan.
During the first six months of 2024, the ISIS Khorasan Province (ISKP, banned in Russia) terrorist group has strengthened its capabilities and posed a serious threat to the security of its neighbors and Eurasia. In early September, ISIS (banned in Russia) detonated a bomb in Kabul. Recently, Chinese citizens were targeted on the Tajik-Afghan border.
Earlier in January 2022, Emomali Rahmon estimated that “the number of terrorist camps and training centers on the southern border of the Collective Security Treaty Organization in northeastern Afghanistan is more than 40 camps and the strength is more than 6,000 fighters.”
The length of the Central Asian border with Afghanistan alone, which is more than two thousand kilometers, poses a risk of infiltration by members of “sleeper terrorist cells.”
In addition, given the Syrian crisis, the risk of terrorist fighters transferring from war-torn areas to other areas and strengthening the positions of international terrorist organizations in Afghanistan, it poses a serious threat to Afghanistan’s neighboring countries.
In this situation, the security belt and cooperation between the border guard services of Afghanistan’s neighboring countries can create a kind of deterrent against extremist and terrorist groups to ensure the security of Afghanistan’s neighbors.
This approach can be somewhat consistent with Islamabad and Tehran’s plan to block the border with Afghanistan with a wall and use advanced technology.
In another dimension, the security belt plan can lead to the formation of a secure economic corridor for trade and economic exchanges. If the idea of a security belt is formed, it can be coordinated with important regional and international economic ideas and corridors and the China-Iran-Russia-India plans.
In addition, Afghanistan is one of the key security issues of this country’s neighbors and regional multilateral organizations.
The security belt around Afghanistan can practically increase the incentives for cooperation between the country’s neighboring countries in the form of their meetings, members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Commonwealth of Independent States, ECO, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the creation of alliances between organizations.
The permanent membership of Iran, India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and China to the Shanghai Organization along with the presence of Turkmenistan as a guest member in the Organization, (all of which are Afghanistan’s neighbors) gives this organization important advantages for its action towards Afghanistan.
The Commonwealth of Independent States and the Collective Security Treaty Organization can also play an important role. Meanwhile, the Commonwealth of Independent States supported the plan to create a security belt around Afghanistan in November 2024, and the Afghanistan Working Group of the Collective Security Treaty Organization has been highlighted.
In this regard, the Eurasian Regional Group on Combating Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing, (consisting of nine members including China, Russia, India, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Belarus), is seeking joint measures to counter the threat of terrorism in Afghanistan.
Paying attention to the precise implementation of the security belt has several goals, such as improving security, combating the spread of terrorism and illegal activities from Afghanistan to the neighboring countries, strengthening stability, creating a buffer zone, strengthening regional cooperation, confronting threats, and confronting extremism at the source.
Challenges and the Taliban’s approach
The Taliban’s opposition to the idea of a security belt around Afghanistan is a significant challenge. The Taliban believes that it has fulfilled its responsibility in providing security and that neighboring countries should not express concern about this area.
From this perspective, the issue of drug trafficking is a global issue and all countries should cooperate against this phenomenon. There is no threat from Afghanistan to other countries.
Zabihullah Mujahid, the Taliban spokesman, previously announced that there is no need to develop a plan to create a security belt around Afghanistan, drugs have been eliminated and are banned in Afghanistan. From the Taliban’s point of view, arms smuggling from Afghanistan is also a lie, and sometimes citizens of other countries create insecurity in Afghanistan.
According to another belief, fencing the borders and creating such a security belt around the Afghan border will create political and economic problems for Afghanistan and will limit trade and contact between countries.
There are also some other serious challenges to implementing the plan. The implementation of this plan requires the presence of all countries. With the absence of any country, the plan cannot be implemented. Also, the implementation of the security belt plan probably requires the presence of military and security forces of the members in the territory of the sovereign states, which requires high coordination with neighbors.
The costs of the project, and the formation of a buffer zone of several thousand kilometers, require heavy costs and a significant allocation of military power by all neighbors.
The Initiative’s Outlook
What is clear is that the Taliban’s promises do not in any way eliminate the threat posed by various extremist groups in Afghanistan. Therefore, a security belt around Afghanistan can improve the national security of its neighbors and help neutralize extremism, international terrorism, drug and arms trafficking, and illegal migration.
In addition, the realization of a security belt should not exacerbate tensions by creating geopolitical tensions between neighbors.
A key prerequisite for the formation of a security belt is the formation of information exchange channels between neighboring countries, a detailed study of how to implement it, examining implementation models, and examining the type of interaction with the Taliban.
However, with the existence of a working group on Afghanistan in the Collective Security Treaty Organization and multilateral regional cooperation by Afghanistan’s neighbors, the formation of a joint working group between regional organizations to develop a comprehensive plan for creating a security belt around Afghanistan could be an important step in securing the borders with the country.
Farzad Bonesh ‒ geopolitical and geoeconomic analyst, researcher and writer
