The sudden and dramatic collapse of Syria has sent shockwaves through both the region and the world, triggering a cascade of geopolitical repercussions.
This development raises parallels with historical precedents of conquest, subjugation, and redrawn borders. As Hitler so accurately said before his invasion of Poland, “Who now speaks of the destruction of the Armenians?”, and Hitler gave orders to his troops to send to death mercilessly and without compassion, men, women, and children of Polish origins, “only thus shall we be able to gain the needed Lebensraum”
One could just as well say today, “Who now speaks of the Genocide of the Palestinians?”
Anyone for a New Era Sykes Picott Treaty?
A century ago, the Sykes-Picot Agreement carved the region into zones of influence for imperial powers, disregarding the aspirations or ethnic boundaries of its inhabitants. Could we be witnessing a 21st-century reimagining of this divisive legacy, where modern powers, including Turkey, pursue their own designs under the guise of “regional security and stability”?
I suspect that the sudden collapse of Syria is going to be a living hell of a disaster, not so much for Syrians but others in the region, especially now as Israel just invaded Syria to “establish a buffer zone” on the Golan Heights, which is legally part of Syria too, long taken and now illegally incorporated into Israel.
In addition, Israeli aircraft have struck targets all over Syria, including government ministries, military bases, and weapons supply dumps, supposedly to stop weapons falling into the hands of militants, which is ironic, given that the Israelis have been, along with Turkey, the US, and EU, supplying the militants with weapons themselves.
So, who now can save Lebanon, the Palestinians, and Iran. This begs the question as to whether it will be like Churchill’s realization when he knew it was necessary to drag America into WW2 to save England and Poland from the Germans? This was just for starters, and soon the rest of Europe fell and was occupied, and by 1941 America was in the war, in the wake of Pearl Harbor.
But how to stop what has already started?
It will not be easy, as the UN has ceased to function due to never-ending American vetoes, and with the Israelis having “expanded the buffer zone” on the occupied Golan Heights, with the help of unlimited weapons, thanks to the generosity of US taxpayers, and the ownership of US politicians by AIPAC and Israeli/Zionist money.
It is not hard to imagine that, Hafez Assad, the father of Bashar, would be turning over in his grave with disappointment at what his son let happen. Hafez al-Assad, the late Syrian leader, would likely be appalled by the current state of affairs—a Syria weakened by war, its economy shattered, and its resources exploited by foreign actors, including the U.S., which continues to occupy key oilfields—siphoning off Syria’s oil and much needed revenues.
Wider Implications
The implications of the fall of Assad extend far beyond Syria’s borders. Hezbollah, a key ally of the former Assad government, has been significantly weakened by sustained Israeli military actions in Lebanon, despite the damage they have done to the Israeli army in turn, the fact that Hezbollah agreed to an Israeli ceasefire at all shows that they have been weakened, with their leadership humbled by the Israeli ability to strike at will via airpower.
Meanwhile, Russia’s is heavily engaged in its SMO in Ukraine, which has reduced its immediate capacity to intervene decisively in Syria, leaving a vacuum that Israel and other regional powers are quickly exploiting. Russia may be all the wiser, as it knew that the Syrian population was ready for change.
The specter of unchecked Israeli dominance in the region looms, with potentially horrendous consequences for millions of innocent lives. Nonetheless, the sudden fall of Syria should not be too much of a surprise after a dozen years of war in tandem with biting sanctions, imposed by the west, the economy has long been in the gutter.
The US occupying most of the oilfields has not made it easy, with the US stealing and selling of Syria’s oil, which has severely crippled the state’s income, resulting in ever worsening economic conditions for both the Syrian government, and its people.
Lots can be written in retrospect, but for now, what happens next will be most revealing, as a land bridge for the terrorists and their western and Israeli backers, will be opened now to Iran and Iraq, and it does not leave much to the imagination of how that will be used.
Greater Israel is REAL!
So, for now, Israel has free-range to do what it wants, and Iran has no way to support its friends and allies in the region. I suspect we are looking at a Greater Israel raring its head in the region.
The emergence of a “Greater Israel” is no longer a distant possibility. The world is watching, but as history has shown, observation without action often comes too late, if at all. I really don’t know how to address this topic, other than what it means, not for Syria, but for the US, Turkey and the Israeli plan for the region, like the carving up of a side of roast beef with lots of side dishes.
I think the Russians have seen the end of the Assad regime coming for some time. The Russians have good intelligence in the Middle East. The Russians cannot fight instead of the locals, since it is obvious that the local population did not support Assad. It is notable that, after the second recapture of Palmyra by Russian forces, the Russians warned that they would not do it a third time, and that the Syrians would have to learn to fight for themselves.
Europe and Turkey hope now that some refugees from Syria will return home and ease the pressure on the social system in the EU, which seems about as likely as the Ukrainian diaspora returning home. If anything, the situation is likely to get far worse, if the experience of Libya is anything to go buy, already there are reports of the “Diversity friendly Jihad” turning its sights on the Kurds, while looting in the capital of Damascus is spiraling out of control.
It is likely that, rather than seeing Syrians return home, there will simply be another flood of Syrians storming the borders of the EU, and, if things go as I suspect, also Iraqis, and Iranians.
Wider Implications
This is not only a question of Syria and the wider Middle East, let’s see what happens in Romania and Georgia. Now, if someone decides that he doesn’t like some kind of government, it’s very easy to replace it, all you need to do is announce that it came to power with the help of Russia or China, and the elections will be cancelled, changed or unrecognized.
Now the entire balance of the Middle East has been disrupted. Will Syria follow the path of Libya, and how will all this affect the conflict in Gaza and Lebanon?
What role did Israel play in the fall of the Assad regime? Does Erdoğan hope to subjugate a BIG part of Syria and restore the Ottoman Empire.
What remains to be seen is how this new reality will affect the fragile balance of alliances and rivalries—and whether anyone or any international organization, any outcry, can prevent the region from descending further into chaos, even becoming the first major campaign of what may turn into a fully-fledged WW3.
There is little doubt, it has already started. I think that we are in the period of the third world war. This is simply due to changes in technology, because of which the appearance of military conflicts has changed. In this war, not only the physical destruction of the enemy occurs, but also the war on the emotional, cultural, propaganda and informational level.
Gradually, the severity of conflicts in the world is only increasing and this may inevitably end in nuclear conflicts. If you look at those who have political power, these are people who have never had personal experience of going through a military conflict. For them, the understanding of war is just an episode of Game of Thrones.
Seth Ferris, investigative journalist and political scientist, expert on Middle Eastern affairs
