Amid the rapprochement between Russia and the DPRK, expectations are growing in South Korea that the relative cooling in relations between Seoul and Beijing may be replaced by a warming. It is true that the level of official contacts has increased this year, but it is too early to talk about a détente.
Contacts between top officials
Xi Jinping, for his part, “drew attention to the significant changes in the international and regional situation,” pointing out that “Beijing and Seoul should pursue the course of good-neighborliness and friendship, the principles of mutual benefit and coexistence, making effective use of the advantages of geographical proximity, cultural communication and mutual integration.” The Chinese General Secretary characterized the current state of relations between China and South Korea as steadily developing, and expressed his willingness to develop them and continue them further.
The next meeting, or rather, the “long-awaited visit of the Chinese leader to South Korea,” something that Seoul has been seeking for a very long time, should take place in 2025, in the context of the APEC summit in South Korea’s Gyeongju. If the summit is combined with an official visit by the Chinese leader, rather than just another meeting on the sidelines, then this will be a milestone in bilateral relations.
Earlier, during a trilateral summit between the Chinese, Japanese and South Korean leaders, Yoon Suk-yeol met with Premier Li Qiang, head of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China. As a result, the 2+2 foreign policy and security dialogue mechanism (meetings between the foreign and defense ministers) and the strategic dialogue at the deputy ministerial level were resumed. However, the call for Beijing to “go beyond the bilateral agenda” and “cooperate closely for the peace and prosperity of the international community in today’s complex geopolitical crisis” (read, put pressure on Pyongyang) went unanswered. Moreover, Li Qiang said that China insists on a political solution and the countries involved, especially the ROK and the DPRK, should exercise restraint to prevent the situation from deteriorating.
Exchange of delegations at a lower level
In 2024, South Korea and China marked the 32nd anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries. However, there have been no official commemorations, and typically they only celebrate anniversaries ending in a 0 or 5.
On July 26, on the margins of the ASEAN Regional Forum in Laos, the two foreign ministers held 40-minute talks and agreed to continue to “maintain close communications.”
On June 18, 2024, high-level representatives of the foreign and defense ministries of South Korea and China held talks, but in an “for all the good, against all the bad” format. The South Korean representatives urged the PRC to “play a constructive role in ensuring the peace, stability, and security of the Korean Peninsula,” arguing that the intensification of Russian-North Korean military cooperation is contrary to Beijing’s interests, but China reiterated its previous position.
There have been meetings at the level of department heads, deputy ministers or special envoys, but these have focused on specific issues arising from the meeting between Yoon and Lee. These include fighting transnational crime such as drug trafficking and voice phishing (the subject of the first meeting between the two countries’ public security chiefs in 10 years) and strengthening bilateral cooperation on supply chains for critical minerals and key industrial goods (the subject of the first meeting of the two countries’ economic ministers since August 2022).
Of course, attempts to discuss the DPRK have also continued. Thus, on May 9, Lee Jung-il, director of the North Korea Department of the ROK Foreign Ministry, and Liu Xiaoming, China’s special representative for Korean Peninsula Affairs, met in Tokyo for the Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue. Details of the conversation have not been disclosed, but experts believe it tackled North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs.
The youth exchange program between China and South Korea has been resumed, and China has introduced visa-free travel for South Korean tourists, the first such move since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1992.
Replacing the two countries’ ambassadors
In April 2024, South Korea’s ambassador to China, Chung Jae-ho, was accused of inappropriate behavior toward staff members, but in May an internal investigation found that his conduct was not serious enough to warrant taking disciplinary action. The case attracted attention because Jeong was known for his close ties to President Yoon Suk-yeol.
However, in October a new South Korean ambassador to China was appointed. He is Kim Dae-ki, former chief of staff to the South Korean President, who speaks good Chinese and is known as a specialist in dealing with trade issues related to countering the PRC.
In July 2024, the term of office of China’s Ambassador to South Korea, Xing Haiming, came to an end. Xing is known for a series of aggressive declarations along the lines of “Seoul will definitely regret it if it bets on China losing in its strategic rivalry with the United States.” Since then, Xing has reportedly experienced difficulties when meeting with South Korean government officials.
In November 2024, China’s deputy permanent representative to the UN Dai Bin, was appointed to replace him. Dai’s higher rank compared to his predecessor was seen as an indication of the seriousness of China’s intentions to strengthen ties with Seoul.
Grounds for hope?
On October 9, 2024, Yoon Suk-yeol stated that South Korea is committed to developing “rules-based” cooperation with China and resolving misunderstandings through “quick and honest” dialog.
During the Peru summit, President Yoon Suk-yeol gave an interview in which he noted that the ROK should not choose between the US and China (or, more precisely, “For South Korea, the United States and China are not countries for us to choose between”), a comment which attracted immediate attention, as in the first half of his five-year term, the president focused on strengthening the alliance with the United States.
On November 18, when asked whether Yoon’s statement signaled a shift to a more balanced diplomatic approach, the South Korean presidential administration stated that Seoul’s diplomatic strategy has always focused on promoting the country’s interests in relation to both national security and the economy. China is South Korea’s largest trading partner.
Such statements, together with the facts referred to above, are presented as a sign of warming relations, and this view is also being actively “promoted” by Western experts. For example, in an article in the Korea Times, John Burton referred to the relationship between the ROK and PRC as a “détente.” In his opinion, “Beijing is again seeing North Korea revert to its traditional strategy of playing off China and Russia against each other to win concessions from both countries, threatening to weaken Beijing’s influence in Pyongyang” which is why China wants to mend relations with South Korea, and it is important to take advantage of this. Former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also says, “we must convince China that a nuclear weapon in North Korea is not in China’s interest.”
But how realistic is it to expect a warming? The situation in the relations between China and South Korea in general is still determined by the fact that South Korea was and is firmly in the American sphere of influence, since Seoul’s orientation toward Washington is not political but value-based. Nevertheless, the Yoon administration is in practice trying to keep a balance and shy away from direct anti-China rhetoric. John Burton points out that despite deepening security ties with the US Yoon has reneged on a pre-election pledge to deploy additional THAAD batteries, has not joined QUAD, and continues to officially support the “One China” doctrine. However, while Seoul says it is firmly committed to further developing relations with China and is making efforts to do so, Beijing is reacting rather sluggishly.
“The geopolitical situation in the region has turned the two countries against each other. South Korea is a key member of the US-led democratic coalition in the Indo-Pacific region, while China is one of three authoritarian regimes backing Russia and North Korea,” according to one South Korean media outlet. It is necessary to “set the right level of ambition for relations between Korea and China relations” and “considering all the uncertainties under Trump 2.0, President Yoon needs to moderate the speed of getting along with China.” The tone of some of the articles even seems to be a warning.
In addition, there any many rocks in the path of a possible détente. The Taiwan issue, a number of spy and criminal scandals, anti-Chinese public sentiment in South Korea and the “culture wars” will be discussed in our next installments.
Konstantin Asmolov, PhD in History, Leading research fellow at the Center for Korean Studies, Institute of China and Modern Asia, Russian Academy of Sciences
