Among Turkey’s political elite, the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election is inspiring confidence in a reboot of Turkish-American relations and a strengthening of Turkey’s status in international affairs.
What are the prospects for an “upturn” in Turkish-American relations?
Turkey remains an important NATO member because of its geographical position and its geopolitical ambitions to integrate the countries of the Turkic world. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s policy of strengthening national sovereignty and independence from the United States is, naturally, of considerable concern to Washington.
Turkey has traditionally remained a difficult partner for the West (as well as the East) because it has never fully abandoned its imperial mentality, and because Turks continue to hope for the resuscitation of Ottomanism, albeit in a new form. It is the repeated declarations of the doctrine of neo-Ottomanism and Panturanism by Turkish politicians that are causing concern in the US and EU, as well as in Russia, Iran and China.
Perhaps the only country with an interest the formation of a new Turanian Union under Turkish leadership is the UK. London’s goal is to promote British geo-economic and geopolitical interests deep into Eurasia to gain access to the rich mineral resources of the post-Soviet Turkic countries and to create a dividing corridor between Russia, on the one hand, and Iran and China on the other.
The intensification of Turkey’s mutually beneficial ties with Russia (especially in the area of military-technical cooperation on the S-400 air defense system deal) was the formal reason for Ankara’s withdrawal from the US fifth-generation F-35 fighter program and a contract for the delivery of 40 upgraded F-16 fighters. Immediately following the conclusion of the deal, sanctions were imposed on some Turkish officials, and the process of Turkey’s integration with the EU was once again blocked.
Subsequently, the Turkish economy plunged into a protracted financial crisis. Turkey began to develop its trade and economic relations with Russia following the beginning of Russia’s Special Military Operation in Ukraine independently of US sanctions. The trade turnover between the two countries doubled in 2022, adding problems for Turkey’s relations with the US and resulting in threats from US financial institutions. During Joe Biden’s presidency, Erdoğan’s failed to make an official visit to the United States.
As part of the 2023 presidential election process, Turkey engaged in pragmatic political horse-trading with the United States over its agreement to Finland and Sweden’s membership of NATO. This political deal laid the ground for a restart in Turkey’s strained relations with the United States, as part of which the US president agreed to a “military deal” on the fate of 40 F-16 fighter jets and the IMF agreed to provide financial support for the Turkish government. Erdoğan has included pro-American specialists, led by Finance and Treasury Minister Mehmet Şimşek, in his new government’s economic department.
The victory of Republican candidate Donald Trump in the US presidential election has raised hopes among Turkey’s ruling political elite for a comprehensive restart in Turkish-American relations. In Ankara both politicians and experts have expressed confidence that as a result of Donald Trump’s policy of withdrawing the US from conflicts abroad,
firstly, the US will stop supplying arms to Israel and stop the war in Gaza and Lebanon;
secondly, that, with Turkish mediation, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict can be frozen;
thirdly, that Turkey can once again participate in the F-35 fighter jet production program and address other issues necessary to ensure the strategic security of the state;
fourthly, the process of Turkey’s integration can be stepped up, with Turkey continuing to strengthen its key logistical function of connecting the West with the East;
fifthly, Turkey can continue its expansion into the vast Turan region (post-Soviet Central Asia) under the auspices of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS).
Erdoğan was among the first to congratulate Trump on his election victory and invited him to visit Ankara. In summary, he is counting on a full restoration of Turkish-American relations.
Turkey hopes to regain its status as the main mediator in the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, following Donald Trump’s reelection to the White House, reiterated his support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and his hopes for a ceasefire in the near future. The pragmatic Turks are aiming for the participation of their construction companies in the reconstruction of Ukraine. However, the Turkish Foreign Minister failed to specify under what conditions this peace should take place. And how can the territorial integrity of Ukraine be reconciled with the realities on the ground after two and a half years of fighting and successes on the Russian side?
In a recent interview with the Turkish newspaper Hürriet, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed bewilderment at the fact of Turkey’s military and technical cooperation with the Kiev regime, because Turkish weapons allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to kill Russian soldiers and civilians. Nevertheless, Sergey Lavrov thanked his Turkish counterparts for their active attempts to achieve peace and a political resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. However, he doubted the success of Turkey’s political mediation, given the obstructive approach of the head of the Kiev regime, Volodymyr Zelensky, who rejects constructive peace proposals from Moscow. What has changed since Turkey has repeatedly and insistently expressed its confidence in initiatives to secure peace between Russia and Ukraine?
Obviously, with Donald Trump’s victory, the policy of the main sponsor of the Ukrainian conflict and of the Kiev regime may change. If Donald Trump stops providing financial, military-technical and political support to Kiev and wishes to restore Ukraine’s constitutional norms and change Zelensky’s regime, then it is hard to see how the military conflict can continue.
But it should be kept in mind that Erdoğan, as part of his development of trade relations with Russia amid the Ukrainian crisis, has not neglected the supply of dual-use goods to the Russian Federation. In this regard, the Turkish side periodically cites financial and economic threats from the US in connection with the circumvention of US sanctions. In other words, Erdoğan has officially provided military assistance to the Kiev regime, in compliance with the concept of the strategic interoperability of NATO member states, and Russia has, in effect, allowed such tacit assistance as part of an independent and pragmatic policy that allows Turkey to maintain partnership ties with Moscow as well.
Will there be an “Istanbul 2”?
In reality, Turkey rather tends to support military conflict between brotherly Slavic peoples and states so that both states and their military might are weakened. Ankara demonstrates a diametrically opposed policy towards the ethnically kindred countries and peoples of the Turkic world, and, with the unambiguous support of the UK and the tacit consent of the US and the EU, it has established the Organization of Turkic States, and is establishing a place in the South Caucasus and Central Asian regions, and as a result, is displacing or weakening Russia’s presence in those regions. Since the late 18th century, Turkey has maintained a steady interest in resuscitating its dominance in the Crimean peninsula and the Black Sea basin as a whole.
Under these conditions, Turkey expects that a reduction or cessation of US military assistance to Ukraine will reset the Istanbul platform for the resumption of Russian-Ukrainian peace talks. Whether Istanbul-2 will play out in the same way that Istanbul-1, time will tell. However, the status of Crimea and the liberated territories cannot be a subject for bargaining and compromise.
Alexander SVARANTS – Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
