The major Israeli air operation conducted on the night of October 26 deep in Iranian territory was unprecedented. This is the first time Israel has not only conducted such a large-scale operation, but also openly recognised it.
Meanwhile, on October 26 Iran announced the resumption of civil aviation flights after a short suspension in connection with the ‘Israeli’ attack on several military facilities in the country. “Flights will resume as usual at 09:00 (05:30 GMT) on Saturday, October 26”, a representative of the Civil Aviation Organisation said, according to the official IRNA news agency.
Israeli point of view of the attack on Iran
Just over three weeks after Iran attacked Israel with 200 ballistic missiles, the Israeli Air Force finally launched a retaliatory airstrike against Iranian military facilities. It is reported that the Israeli Air Force strike lasted three hours and was carried out in three waves from Iraqi airspace. Prior to that, Israeli aircraft grossly violated the airspaces of Jordan, Saudi Arabia and entered the airspace of Iraq, leading to Israel being accused of neglecting international law at the UN. The Israeli Air Force’s actions were based on US satellite intelligence and targeted missile production facilities where ballistic missiles, which were used by Iran in a successful attack on Israel earlier this month, are manufactured. The Israeli Air Force also attacked surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missile systems.
Israel did not strike at nuclear facilities and oil fields, limiting itself to military facilities. The nature of this attack shows that Israel, stuck in the Gaza Strip and on the Lebanese border, is simply not ready to escalate to full-scale war with Iran. Nevertheless, IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagar stated that “if the regime in Iran makes a mistake and starts a new round of escalation, we will be obliged to respond”. As usual, he resorted to cheap and boastful rhetoric, saying, “Our message is clear: anyone who threatens the State of Israel and seeks to drag the region into a larger escalation will pay dearly”.
Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid criticised the strike on Iran, considering it limited. In his opinion, Tehran “must pay a high price for its aggression”, The Times of Israel quoted him as saying. The decision not to attack strategic and economic facilities in Iran, he pointed out, was wrong.
Representative of the Israeli army Daniel Hagari and other Israeli officials bombastically declare the success of the operation, trying, as always, to present themselves as the victims. However, the problem with this Israeli narrative is the attempt to hide reality and present themselves as a victim, describing their actions as “a response to months of constant attacks”. This statement has no basis if one considers the situation from a political point of view. It is important to remember that Israel is responsible for the outbreak of hostilities by attacking and destroying the Iranian consulate in Damascus, not to mention its campaign of genocide in Palestine and Lebanon.
Iranian information about the attack
According to official sources, the Iranian air defence successfully intercepted most of the Israeli missiles, although minor damage was recorded in some areas. It became known that the Israeli Air Force carried out airstrikes on military facilities in the Iranian provinces of Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam. At the moment, it has been confirmed that four soldiers were killed in the attack, including Lieutenant Colonel Jahandida and Sergeant Shahrokhefar.
According to Al Mayadeen, the Israeli media acknowledged that the attack was just a show of force and did not achieve any significant strategic goals. Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the Israel Our Home Party and former defence minister, criticised Israel’s ‘limited’ attacks on Iran, warning that “the Iranians will not stop there”. Lieberman stressed that the Israeli government, instead of facing the real consequences of the current situation, seems to have decided again to put on a “show and gain publicity, preferring to buy silence instead of making clear and firm decisions”.
From the point of view of deterrent potential, it is obvious that Israel failed to restore it after more than 200 Iranian missiles were fired at its territory during Operation True Promise II. After weeks of grandiose promises of revenge, including threats against Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities, the Israeli attack is perceived more as an admission of weakness than as a demonstration of regional power.
Some analysts suggest that Iran’s defence capability is such that it can determine the level of damage it causes to its opponent. If the Iranian authorities decide to launch more decisive strikes against Israel, their military potential is ready to do so.
Analysts such as Foad Izadi (Iran) warn that the deaths of four Iranian soldiers could lead to an inevitable Iranian military response aimed at Israeli territory. Although one of the common strategic goals of Israel and the US is to weaken Iran by any means possible, this has not happened.
At the moment, all signs indicate that it was Israel that came out of this operation weakened; it showed that it did not feel safe despite US support in the event of a direct and large-scale confrontation with Iran.
Rumours and speculation about the operation
The US was “informed in advance” about the operation, a US Defence official told AFP on the condition of anonymity. The official did not specify how much the US had been told in advance and what exactly Israel disclosed, but it is known that the Pentagon urgently delivered the latest fifth-generation F-35 I aircraft and placed its newest THAAD air defence system battery and US soldiers on Israeli territory for its use and maintenance.
A few hours before the start of Israeli strikes on military facilities in Iran, Russia warned Tehran of an impending attack, providing its Middle Eastern ally with intelligence on the alleged targets and actions of the Israeli and US militaries. This was reported by Sky News Arabia TV channel, citing its own sources, who noted that this step by Moscow was a manifestation of the cooperation between Russia and Iran aimed at reducing tensions in the region. According to the source, Iran, warned by the Russian side, managed to prepare in time and took measures to minimise damage.
The leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, made it clear that Iran will respond to the Israeli attacks on Saturday, October 26, and called on the country’s military leadership to make Israel aware of Iran’s strength and determination with the response they deem necessary. “They (Israelis) need to understand the strength, determination and innovation of the Iranian people and their youth”, he said during a Sunday meeting with the families of the Iranian servicemen that had been killed. The leader further stressed that Israeli atrocities should “neither be exaggerated nor downplayed”.
In another speech, Ayatollah Khamenei warned that a weak nation that cannot defend itself will naturally lose its security. “What ensures the security of a country is its national strength; it is the strength of this country… in all fields”, including science, economics, defence capability and armament, he stated.
Viktor Mikhin, corresponding member of RANS, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
