Turkey’s strategic location has historically made it indispensable to the West. However, rising tensions and geopolitical shifts, including Turkey’s potential departure from NATO, could leave the alliance weakened, particularly against Russia, as provoked by NATO’s expansion following the 2014 Ukraine coup and turning a blind eye to the plight of the Palestinian people which brings humanity to the possibility of World War III.
The U.S. and NATO, without Turkey, would become far more vulnerable, leaving them scrambling to maintain dominance in regions like Georgia, and severely inhibiting the US ability to support its new ally, Armenia. The current political climate could easily escalate into a larger global conflict, fuelled by short-sighted leadership, territorial disputes, and the breakdown of international diplomacy.
NATO is heavily reliant on Turkey’s strategic position, the size of its standing army, and how many men it has in reserve. Its potential departure could result in severe consequences for the alliance’s ability to threaten neighbouring states, and project power, especially in the Middle East.
The growing instability in global hotspots and the threat of nuclear conflict indicate that the world is already in the early stages of a broader conflict, which requires urgent diplomatic efforts to avoid—yet western countries remain hindered by entrenched selfish geopolitical interests.
Turkey has made the full circle, in terms of political rhetoric, playing all sides, and is finally coming around to the realization that its use for the West was based on location, especially in terms of how it became one of the early members of NATO, as it was located on the Southern flank of the Soviet Union, and would serve to bottle up the Soviet Black Sea Fleet and reduce the Soviet ability to intervene in the Mediterranean Sea.
The West, the NATO alliance, in spite of having enlarged membership, still remains a hapless paper tiger without Turkey, and if threats of the departure of the second most powerful standing army after the US in the alliance would come to fruition, the US and its colonies are left floundering as proverbial ‘shark bait’ while the Russian Federation finishes the job that was forced upon it by the 2014 coup in Ukraine, indiscriminate murdering of ethnic Russians in border regions by Kiev, the unabated drive to expand NATO to Russia’s borders, and the constant drumbeat from US and EU Think Tanks and politicians about the need to break up Russia into smaller republics.
No wonder the Russian state, as well as its people, are viewing this war as existential.
The potential departure of Turkey from NATO, should Erdoğan follow through on his veiled threats, is set to make an already threatening situation all the more dire, especially against the backdrop of the ongoing genocide in Palestine. Turkey’s refusal to totally stand idle as Israel and the collective West makes war against Lebanon makes the regional situation all the more complicated.
As the West scrambles to compensate for Turkey’s failure to close ranks with its cause, they may turn to alternative bases like Georgia because of location and proximity to Iran. But Georgia is slipping the western leash, making moves to normalize relations with Russia, with a staunch refusal to join western sanctions, and refusing to take part in any form of “second front” against Russia. Still, it should be remembered that Georgia is still fragile as a fledgling democracy, and its western “friends” will do whatever it takes to prevent normalized relations with Russia, even if it means shedding blood and toppling the government in order to serve the Western agenda of global dominance.
It should be mentioned that Turkey, in spite of claiming solidity with the plight of Palestinians, is the key player in making sure the strategic supply of oil from Azerbaijan flows to Israel, and perhaps the best sabre rattling, for both Georgia and Turkey, would be to turn off this tap to force Israel to back down—as both are part of the mechanism, which is unknown to most regional observers.
On the situation with Ukraine, if asked whether Putin would use nuclear weapons of limited destructive power, the answer is clear: without hesitation, yes. In fact, World War III has already begun.
The recent Russian amendment of its nuclear doctrine is a severe warning to the west that Russian patience is quickly running out. Of particular note is the new determination that mass use of drones or aviation launched weapons, particularly if supported in any way by another nuclear power, will be grounds for nuclear response. The EU has “rejected” the new doctrine, it will be interesting to see how easy it will be to reject the missiles caused by their insane support for a racist, fascist Kyiv junta.
The world now faces two possibilities: universal destruction or the emergence of a new global order. Yet, as long as nation-states and religious and cultural values remain a cornerstone of societal values and governmental policies, such an agreement will never materialize.
Since the destruction of Nagasaki and Hiroshima, two generations have passed, and people have forgotten the horror of atomic weapons. We’ve become complacent, indulging in comfortable lives, falsely believing this peace will last. Most politicians are short-sighted, driven by ambition and financial gain rather than wisdom.
Blissfully and wilfully unaware
While many remain blissfully and wilfully unaware, World War III rages on—but its impacts haven’t yet reached us directly, so most of us remain indifferent.
The conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine, alongside the invasion of Lebanon, showcase how diplomacy, even in its most superficial form, is barely practiced. The U.S., Ukraine, Israel, and NATO have abandoned the guises of productive negotiation, instead becoming state sponsors of terrorism and uncontrolled aggression.
This is just the beginning. The entire system of global governance, with its foundations in intimidation, military outposts, and financial manipulation, thrives on fear and coercion. The storm is only growing.
The realization of the possible departure of Turkey from NATO, if Erdoğan makes good on his veiled threats, especially in light of the ongoing genocide in Palestine, and not to standby while Israel while the collective West is complicit in attacking Lebanon, is making an already dire situation all the more ominous.
Turkey leaving NATO will cause a massive void in the alliance, upsetting US plans to your Turkish bases for strikes against Iran, as was done against Iraq in the two Gulf wars.
That makes it necessary to look elsewhere for a forward operation base, for instance, Georgia, and US and NATO enforcers will do anything to keep this fledging democracy from having normal relations with Russia, regaining its territorial integrity via negotiations, even if it means to overthrow the government and spill more blood in the region for the sake of holding on to the Western system of world dominance.
Furthermore, Turkey is the second-largest military in NATO, both in terms of manpower and equipment, as well as in terms of real combat potential. While most other NATO militaries have allowed “Main Line of Battle” capabilities to atrophy, in favour of elite Special Forces supported by armies focused on counter-insurgency warfare, or as it is known COIN operations, Turkey has retained all arms capability with large stocks of tanks, APCs, and artillery lacking in most NATO member states armies. Backed by a powerful air force and with much combat experience against Kurdish separatists and from interventions in Syria, the Turkish armed forces is an irreplaceable component of NATO, without which, the NATO tiger will lose its claws, and become a paper feline.
Turkey’s defection to BRICS should be a wakeup call for NATO and the EU, though there is the possibility that Turkey is “playing both ends against the middle”, using the threat of joining BRICS and leaving NATO as a threat to gain concessions and restart its long stalled EU membership bid.
Erdoğan would be wise not to take such a course, as Turkey is highly reliant on Russia for energy, tourism, and trade, and Russia has already shown it is quite happy to punish countries that slap away its hand of friendship.
The situation balances on a knife edge, all that remains to be seen, is which way the Turkish state will lean.
Seth Ferris, investigative journalist and political scientist, expert on Middle Eastern affairs, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
