Over the past three months, developments in the Horn of Africa have gained new momentum, with the holding of talks between Ethiopia and Somalia, mediated by Turkey.
Ankara has taken up the challenging role of mediating in this conflict based on its close relations with both parties, including at the level of heads of state, and this role fits in well with the Turkish leader’s geopolitical ambition not only to reestablish Turkey’s former status as a leading regional power in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa, but also to boosting its claim to be a major power on the global stage.
Turkey is the second-largest foreign investor in Ethiopia, after China, with investments totaling 2.5 billion dollars across a wide range of sectors, especially construction, pharmaceuticals, textiles and food processing. Some 200 Turkish companies are operating in the country. Ethiopia accounts for about 14% of Turkish exports.
In 2021, the two countries signed a military agreement that made Ethiopia one of the continent’s largest buyers of Turkish drones and ammunition, which, along with similar weaponry from China and Iran, helped it turn the tide in its war with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in 2022.
As for Somalia, the country is considered a stronghold of Turkish influence in the region, as the Mogadishu area is home to the largest Turkish military base abroad. In February this year, the two countries signed an agreement under which the Turkish navy will protect Somali territorial waters and help Somalai rebuild its navy.
In addition, according to the website Turkish Minute, Turkey has announced that it plans to begin oil and gas exploration off the coast of Somalia in the near future, something it is already doing in Libyan territorial waters.
According to Turkish TV channel TRT World, Ankara started mediation efforts after Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed visited the Turkish President in Ankara in May this year and asked him to mediate between Ethiopia and Somalia.
On the other hand, according to Azerbaijani news agency Azer News, this happened after Abiy Ahmed’s special envoy, former Ethiopian President Mulatu Teshome Wirtu, and Ethiopian Foreign Minister Taye Atskeselassie handed to Ankara a letter from the Ethiopian Prime Minister to Ankara on May 8 this year, in which he asked Turkey to mediate in the conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia.
It should be noted here that the holding of these talks coincided with the IMF’s decision to approve a $3.4 billion loan program to Ethiopia to support its economic reforms. The funds are part of an anticipated $10.7 billion in loans and grants to enable Ethiopia to restructure its $28.4 billion foreign debt.
According to a statement from the IMF, “the four-year financing package will support the authorities’Homegrown Economic Reform (HGER) Agenda to address macroeconomic imbalances, restore external debt sustainability, and lay the foundations for higher, inclusive, and private sector-led growth”.
The IMF estimates that growth in Ethiopia’s GDP could reach 6.5% in the current fiscal year and accelerate to 8% by 2027-2028.
It predicts that economic reforms will make Ethiopia, which for the past 25 years has been the third fastest growing economy in the world after China and India, more attractive again for foreign capital investment. The World Bank estimates that such investment could amount to some $20 billion over the next few years, especially in the telecommunications, banking, transportation and logistics sectors, which were previously closed to foreign investors.
Naturally, Ankara saw in these developments great opportunities for itself to participate in multi-billion dollar projects, including the construction of a major seaport in Somalia and the largest international airport in Africa for Ethiopian Airlines near Addis Ababa, at a cost of 6 billion dollars.
Turkey’s mediation officially began on July 1 this year, when Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who is considered an experienced politician in view of his many years at the helm of Turkey’s intelligence service, MIT, and his former role as head of the Turkish International Cooperation Agency, received Ahmed Moalim Fiqi and Taye Atskeselassie, the Somali and Ethiopian Foreign Ministers, in Ankara. These indirect talks with the active participation of Hakan Fidan (the heads of the delegations did not negotiate with each other personally, but exchanged their views through the Turkish Foreign Minister) ended with the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the two countries, in which both sides expressed their readiness to begin resolving the existing disputes between them through Turkish mediation.
In a joint press statement, the Turkish Foreign Minister said that Somalia and Ethiopia “reaffirmed their commitment to the peaceful resolution of differences, and expressed their appreciation to Türkiye for its facilitation, as well as its constructive contributions”.
Addis Ababa shows a willingness to reach a compromise
Following the first meeting between the two countries in Ankara, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, speaking in Parliament on 4 July, stressed that his country respects the sovereignty of its coastal neighbors and is pursuing a peaceful approach based on mutual benefit in addressing the issue of access to the sea.
“The Somali people are not only our neighbors, but also our brothers and sisters. Many Ethiopians have sacrificed their lives for the peace and unity of Somalia as part of the peacekeeping mission against terrorists,” the prime minister emphasized while reiterating Ethiopia’s commitment to the unity and integrity of Somalia.
The British publication Middle East Monitor draws attention to the fact that Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud has previously stated that he will only participate in negotiations after Addis Ababa announces the termination of its agreement with Somaliland.
On the sidelines of the Ethiopia-Somalia negotiations
The second round of talks scheduled for early September in Ankara was brought forwards to August 12-13. But, according to Turkey’s Hurriyet Daily News, a few days before the talks were held, the Turkish foreign minister visited Addis Ababa, where he held talks with Taye Atskeselassie and was received by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. In these talks, the pointed out that Ethiopia’s access to the Red Sea through Somali territory could only be granted if the Ethiopian authorities recognized Somalia’s territorial integrity and political sovereignty.
The Turkish President is also personally involved in the negotiations to resolve the conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia. On August 10-11, he held telephone conversations with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
In his conversation with Abiy Ahmed, Turkish TV channel TRT World notes, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan emphasized that Addis Ababa must address Somalia’s concerns about its unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity in order to reach a mutually acceptable solution.
It was only after these preparations, on August 11, that the Turkish Foreign Ministry issued an official statement announcing the start of the second round of Turkish-mediated talks. The goal of these talks, writes Turkey’s Daily Sabah, is for the Turkish Foreign Ministry to find a way to give Ethiopia access to international waters through Somali territory without violating the latter’s territorial integrity and while respecting its sovereignty.
As reported in Kenya’s Daily Nation newspaper, the Somali delegation insisted that the Ethiopians publicly reject an agreement with Somaliland to establish an Ethiopian naval base on its territory. Nevertheless, according to the Associated Press, after the talks ended, the Turkish Foreign Minister said that Ethiopia and Somalia had made “notable progress” in resolving the conflict at this stage of the talks.
“I am pleased to announce that the number and extent of issues we discussed, has increased significantly, compared to the first round. We were able to focus on the details and technicalities of concrete steps. We believe that a collaborative and constructive solution is within reach,” Hakan Fidan stated in a video message from the Turkish Foreign Ministry.
For his part, Ethiopian Foreign Minister Taye Atskeselassie thanked Turkey for its mediation and reiterated Ethiopia’s desire to “secure dependable access to and from the sea”. “We look forward to having continued engagement that will ultimately help us resolve current differences and restore normal relations”, he added.
Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi also acknowledged progress in the talks and, according to The Pinnacle Gazette of Turkey, expressed the hope that achieving the main goal of the talks, namely the preserving of Somalia’s territorial integrity, was feasible and that this would provide the impetus for a final agreement.
Viktor Goncharov, expert in African Studies, PhD in Economics, exclusively for the magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
