In the world of big politics, Turkey is used to diplomatic manoeuvring and opportunistic changes. Now it is trying to take its place in a polycentric world. The idea of BRICS membership is becoming a hallmark of Turkish diplomacy.
What are the advantages of BRICS in the system of the new world order?
BRICS today consists of 9 states (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, UAE, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia). Saudi Arabia is in the process of formalising its membership. The key and main themes of this organisation are: mutually beneficial economic partnership, equality and balance of geopolitical interests. Its main members are the largest and richest states. Here we are talking about their geography, resources, demography and economic growth dynamics. However, BRICS is not a military-political institution, even though it includes three nuclear powers (Russia, China and India).
There is no doubt that as BRICS develops and the geography of military and political crises in various regions of the world expands, more and more countries will want to join this organisation or establish an effective partnership with it (in particular, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Maldives, Myanmar, Nigeria, Turkey).
Time has shown that the dictates of the West, led by the US and the UK, are catalysing the process of global transformation. At the same time, the choice of BRICS is becoming a sustainable dynamic of modern transformations, which requires the founders of this interstate association, on the one hand, to respect the opinion of new candidates and, on the other hand, to strengthen the organisation itself and its ability to meet new challenges.
In other words, today it is not enough to want to become a member of BRICS. This choice must be made in strict accordance with the internal and external principles of the organisation itself. The task of BRICS is not chaotic quantitative expansion, but the formation of a new qualitative world structure and the promotion of alternative policies.
It is not for nothing that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov noted that BRICS will not become “a new collective hegemon” and “replace existing multilateral mechanisms”, but is ready to act as “one of the pillars of a new, fairer polycentric world order”.
At the same time, the chaotic expansion of BRICS without a conceptual vision of the future is incapable of bringing efficiency to the system of world coordinates. A new pool of political values and economic opportunities should guarantee the very process of forming a multipolar world. We are talking about the political principles of freedom of choice and respect for mutual interests, about the formation of alternative financial and economic systems that guarantee the exclusion of the dictate of the same dollar and the American financial system of bank payments. It is obvious that the country’s membership in NATO, which is a derivative of the US strategic policy, can also become a reason for limiting and refusing a candidate to join BRICS.
Is Turkey planning to join the BRICS?
Recep Erdoğan continues his pragmatic course of alliance with the West and partnership with the East. It cannot be said that Turkey perceives the notion of West and East in the sense of an extended interpretation of geography. In the context of foreign policy and trade, we are talking about the key countries that shape the global conjuncture with their power at a particular historical moment. In this sense, the West tends to be perceived as the US, the UK and, to some extent, France and Germany. The East is represented by China, Russia, India, Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Turkey is engaged in active diplomacy, trying to demonstrate its supra-regional role in world affairs and consolidate its status as a major player and leader of the Turkic world. But how can this be done in the face of acute economic and financial problems, an inadequate level of strategic defence and a high degree of external dependence on the US and NATO in the field of military security?
In the first quarter of the 21st century, Turkey began to adopt a more nationally oriented policy, expanding its relations with key eastern countries and increasing its economic sovereignty. However, all this proved insufficient to resolve the country’s acute financial and economic crisis, which once again forced the Turkish authorities to turn to the United States, Europe and global financial institutions.
Turkey is increasingly inclined to develop diverse and mutually beneficial relations with the East. However, as the leader of the Turkic world, Turkey still has potential geopolitical contradictions with Russia, China, India and Iran that could lead to a new confrontation.
That is why Ankara is not ready and will not break off its relations with the West and leave NATO. Even in the case of the formation of the ‘Army of Turan’ military organisation under the auspices of the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS), Turkey does not see an alternative to the North Atlantic Alliance, because the military potential of all the members of the OTS is not capable of surpassing NATO.
BRICS as an alternative to the EU for Turkey
It is obvious that Turkey is tired of remaining in the status of an ‘eternal candidate’ for EU membership. In many ways, this artificially prolonged process is an insult to Turkey as a state and to Turks as a nation. In this regard, Ankara would like to find an alternative to the EU in the form of economic cooperation with the prosperous countries of the East, especially the BRICS. However, Turkey cannot leave NATO for the sake of BRICS membership.
That is why Ankara, along with NATO, is trying to gauge the reaction of the US and Britain to its declarations of intent to join BRICS. At the same time, Turkey is well aware of its own favourable economic and geographical position and understands that the same BRICS countries will have to maintain their partnership with Ankara. The strategic importance of the Turkish Straits, the modern transit energy infrastructure and the prospects for the formation of a common Turkish economic market from Istanbul to Samarkand are worth mentioning.
Moreover, the Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem and the pan-Turkic alliance allow Turkey to use its friendly relations with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan to indirectly shape relations with the BRICS, whose membership in this organisation may soon become a reality.
Therefore, a comical situation is created in the media when the Bloomberg agency publishes information about Turkey’s application for BRICS membership and the representative of the ruling Turkish Justice Party, Ömer Çelik, refutes this news with a statement about the continuation of discussions on this issue without progress. However, Azerbaijani sources (notably minval.az), citing Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, note that Turkey has nevertheless applied for BRICS membership, which is being considered.
Of course, an application for BRICS membership by Turkey or any other country cannot be groundless, but at least requires compliance with procedural legal norms. Accordingly, the same BRICS executive bodies are well aware of whether Turkey has made such an application or whether it is just words, intentions, explorations and nothing more.
It is still unclear whether the prospects of “Turkish membership” in the organisation will be discussed at the October BRICS summit in Kazan under the Russian chairmanship if Ankara, unlike Baku, does not submit an application. If BRICS does not accept NATO members, then Turkey should of course send a corresponding appeal to Brussels about its plans to leave NATO, along with the above-mentioned declaration.
However, the Kazan Summit is still 1.5 months away. But whether Turkey will give up NATO membership in favour of BRICS is a matter of the “obvious but unbelievable”.
Alexander Svarants – PhD of Political Science, Professor, especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
