The death of Iran’s President and Foreign Minister in a plane crash on 19 May was an unexpected tragic event. What happened and can Tehran’s foreign policy approaches change after the snap elections?
Too coincidental to look like an accident
The crash of an Iranian helicopter in East Azerbaijan on 19 May this year, which resulted in the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and other officials returning from neighboring Azerbaijan after a meeting with President Ilham Aliyev, was a shock to the Iranian and much of the international community.
It cannot be said that in today’s technogenic world one can completely rule out plane crashes, the causes of which can be various objective and subjective factors (including weather conditions, technical failures, pilot errors, etc.). As they say, the sky does not forgive mistakes, regardless of the status of passengers. At the same time, in all such cases, when the victims are officials (moreover, top officials of states whose political course runs counter to other centers of power), the fact of subversive influence (sabotage, terror) of interested special services and organisations cannot be excluded.
Of course, the Iranian authorities will take appropriate measures for a comprehensive, complete and objective investigation of all the details of the causes of the tragedy. According to the Mehr News Agency, the law enforcement agencies and special services have already been instructed to do so.
However, strangely enough, the order to establish a commission of enquiry came on 20 May, that is, after the information about the death of the Iranian President was made public, on behalf of Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, and not from Supreme Leader or rahbar Ali Khamenei and the heads of the relevant agencies (law enforcement agencies and intelligence services). Bagheri appointed Brigadier General Ali Abdollahi to head the investigation, and representatives of the Iranian army will also take part in the process.
Usually, flight No. 1 with the Iranian President was piloted by IRGC representatives. On the same day, the Bell-212 helicopter that E. Raisi boarded was piloted by a representative of the army. Raisi was piloted by a representative of the army. Maybe this circumstance was the reason for General Baghiri’s order?
From the very beginning the information about the crash of the Iranian helicopter that was received by the media contained many contradictions and inaccuracies. As it is known, initially the Iranian side reported that board No. 1 with the President and the Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran had made a forced hard landing due to difficult weather conditions; then it was reported that President E. Raisi and Foreign Minister A. Abdollahian with other members of the Iranian Foreign Ministry had made a hard landing. A rescue operation was launched to locate their location and movement; a little later it was reported that the weather had seriously deteriorated and search operations were hampered by fog and rain; then there was a shaky hope, because one of the members of the injured crew – the Friday prayer leader from the city of Tabriz, Mohammad Ali Ale-Hashem, (and according to some reports, Minister Abdollahian) made contact; at night it was reported that assistance was requested from neighboring Turkey to organise search operations using modern drones and detection equipment; finally, the worst predictions about the crash of the Bell-212 helicopter for unknown reasons (either weather or technical) and the death of the entire crew (including the President and Foreign Minister of Iran) were confirmed.
Obviously, this sequence of initial reports was due to limited data on the fate of the helicopter and crew. Unfortunately, the search and rescue operations for a number of objective reasons (weather and technical) were not prompt enough and took too long. However, there are too many accidents in this case to consider the helicopter crash accidental.
The request for foreign aid has not helped Iran
Iran had to appeal to foreign states (in particular, to NATO members – the United States and Turkey) with a request to provide technical assistance to speed up the process of locating the crashed Bell-212. However, Washington was unable (or unwilling) to provide the necessary operational assistance, citing objective logistical difficulties. Ankara, on the contrary, promptly sent from Van airbase to East Azerbaijan a modern UAV Akinci, which is equipped with high-quality video cameras and heat sensors and is capable of performing tasks in difficult weather conditions.
However, the Iranian side after finding the wreckage of the helicopter said that the Turkish drone could not help them, the Akinci UAV’s thermal imager detected the source of heat (remains of an unextinguished fire) near the Iranian village of Tavil, 30 kilometers from the border with Azerbaijan. The issue was resolved with the help of a modern Iranian IRGC ground forces drone equipped with SAR radar, which was on alert in the northern Indian Ocean. The redeployment to East Azerbaijan took time. The Turkish drone deviated from the place where the presidential helicopter crashed by 7 kilometers. In other words, the death of Bell-212 occurred 23 kilometers from the border with Azerbaijan.
Why did Raisi change the vector of the visit?
President E. Raisi’s visit to neighboring Azerbaijan to participate with President I. Aliyev in the opening of two dams on the border river Araks (Giz Galasi and Khudaferin) was unexpected. On that day, the Iranian President was scheduled to visit Syunik region in the south of Armenia to meet with N. Pashinyan and sign an agreement on the North-South transit transport project (from India through Iran, Armenia and Georgia to Russia and Europe), while in Azerbaijan, a meeting at the level of foreign ministers was supposed to launch the two dams. However, Azerbaijani leader I. Aliyev, having seen off his Belarusian colleague A. Lukashenko from Karabakh, stayed in the south of the country to receive I. Raisi.
It is clear that the negotiations on the Araks River between Aliyev and Raisi were not limited to the launching of the two dams and touched upon broader issues on the bilateral and multilateral agenda. Most likely, it could have been about a similar North-South transit transport corridor from Russia through Azerbaijan and Iran to India (Asia), but without Armenia and with an anti-Western bias. The parties, judging by the satisfaction of the Azerbaijani leader with the outcome of the negotiations, have obviously reached important agreements. It turns out that the U.S., which excluded the unblocking of Russia and Iran, turned out to be disappointed with the agreements between Baku and Tehran.
However, it is possible to assume with exact opposite precision that certain forces in Iran (including a conditional group of reformists from among the supporters of former president Hassan Rouhani) could hold the opposite opinion, for they are interested in the breakthrough of Iranian isolation to the European market through the Armenian Zangezur.
Finally, there are conservative forces in Iran (including rahbar A. Khamenei himself and the IRGC) that are highly suspicious of the Azerbaijani-Israeli partnership against the IRI, as well as of the prospects of broad pan-Turkish integration within the framework of the doctrine of neopanturanism.
The main working versions of the air accident
In such situations, several versions are worked out in parallel (including weather conditions, technical problems and human factor – from pilot’s unprofessionalism to subversive terrorist action).
Meteorological conditions are excluded. In Iran, the working version of the weather conditions, which caused the helicopter crash and the death of the entire crew, has actually been abandoned. Thus, the head of the Iranian Presidential Administration, Gholam Hossein Esmaeili, who was part of President Ebrahim Raisi’s delegation and was in another helicopter, said in an interview with the Iranian state company IRIB that at the beginning of the flight the weather was clear and all three helicopters of the presidential column were flying towards Tabriz from the lower side of the dam. There was no fog, but clouds were protruding. The helicopter squadron commander and Bell-212 pilot Mostafavi, who was transporting Raisi, ordered all the helicopters to gain altitude and continue flying above the clouds. Thirty seconds after gaining altitude, the main board, flying in the middle of the convoy, disappeared, although the sky appeared cloudless and there were no vibrations. Radio contact with the presidential helicopter was momentarily interrupted.
Technical costs. If weather conditions are excluded (rather they were present in the organisation of the search for the crashed helicopter and rescue operations), then technical reasons remain as a working version. In particular, the fallen Bell-212 helicopter was a 50-year-old American aircraft and was inherited by the current authorities of Iran from the Shah’s times. That is why former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif believes that the United States is involved in the death of President Raisi because they banned the supply of aircraft parts for this helicopter, which led to the deterioration of its engine and the crash.
Accordingly, the well-known tough US sanctions against Iran (including the supply of spare parts for the same helicopters) could indirectly be the cause of technical malfunctions of the aircraft. Why indirectly? Simply technical expertise and investigation will give the final answer in this case. At the same time, the Iranian side should not have included this Bell-212 in the presidential convoy, if the technical performance of the machine aroused suspicion (the more so, the flight crew used modern Russian Mi-171).
Human Factor. Usually, a presidential flight is piloted by qualified specialists from the IRGC. This time, the Bell-212 helicopter with the President on board was entrusted to an army representative. True, there is no information in Iranian sources questioning the professionalism of the same pilot Mostafavi, who transported the Iranian President. The whole question is, what was the reason for this personnel change from the IRGC to the army? Most likely, this reason for the replacement will be clarified by the commission of enquiry.
Diversion-terrorist action. Unfortunately, such a version is not excluded in this particular case, which is not much publicized, but is being thoroughly studied on the whole complex of direct and indirect signs.
Some, especially anti-Iranian-minded media (for example, Azerbaijani social networks like minval.az, osmagisi.az) and experts (Beidula Manafov, Tofig Aliyev, Arif Yunus, etc.) believe that Raisi’s death opens the way to the post of President and further Supreme Leader of Iran to the son of Ali Khamenei.
On 28 June everyone will know who will be the new President of Iran. After the end of the five-day mourning period in Iran, the probable list of candidates for the presidency of Iran is already known, but the name of A. Khamenei’s son is not on it. In particular, the known candidates are: Saeed Jalali, Seyed Parviz Fattah, Seyed Yasser Jebraily, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Majid Ansari, Ali Larijani, Mohammad Javad Zarif, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Ishaq Jahangari, Mehrad Bazarpash, Ahmad Vahidi, Alireza Zakani, and Mohammad Mokhber. Finally, why should the Iranian side have linked internal political disputes with a flight to neighboring Azerbaijan?
Is it possible that the outcome of talks between Raisi and Aliyev became unacceptable for someone? Obviously, this version is too implausible and is a manifestation of anti-Iranian emotions of some experts and media, taking into account the recent complications of Iranian-Azerbaijani relations due to the partnership between Baku and Tel Aviv. Besides, the Azerbaijani authors of this version are in American emigration. President I. Aliyev himself told E. Raisi that “some people do not welcome our meeting, but they are not important for us”.
The trail of foreign intelligence services. Taking into account the high degree of complication of Iranian-Israeli and Iranian-American relations due to the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip, known sabotage actions against high-ranking IRGC generals in Iraq and Syria by US and Israeli intelligence services, the April mass aerial attack by Iranian drones and cruise missiles on Israeli military facilities, and taking into account the statement of B. Netanyahu that Tel Aviv reserves the right to point retaliatory strikes against the IRI (and in the past it was manifested in subversive actions of Mossad and Aman to kill Iranian scientists and officers), one cannot exclude the fact of a similar operation against President Raisi and Foreign Minister Abdollahian by Israel with the complicity of the US and British intelligence services.
Besides, the fact that the helicopter was equipped with three different tracking systems (including GPRS and transponders), but they did not work and did not allow to detect its location, speaks in favor of external intervention in the death of Bell-212. The Turkish side, for example, did not record any signals from the helicopter, obviously the transponders were switched off.
But by whom and why? Obviously, from a distance of 23 km technical means of intelligence and operators of Israel, possibly deployed on the territory of Azerbaijan, theoretically could control the flight of the Iranian column of three helicopters and in a given trajectory to disable all the electronics, radio system and online navigators, or preliminarily put a timer to disable the engine Bell-212.
It remains unclear how President Raisi and the Iranian Foreign Minister found themselves on board the outdated American Bell-212, because they flew to Azerbaijan on a modern Russian Mi-171, which successfully performed a flight in two directions. Who organised this transfer and why? After all, even outwardly Bell-212 could easily be distinguished from two Mi-171 (in the sense of which of them is President Raisi).
The Israeli side, as it is known, immediately declared its non-involvement in this air crash. The USA did the same with the addition of the immoral statement of the Secretary of State A. Blinken that America was not saddened by the fact of Raisi’s death. Specifically, when asked by Senator Ted Cruz, Blinken stated the world is a better place now that Raisi is dead.
Richard Silverstein believes that the assassination of Raisi and his associates was carried out by the Mossad, and that the operation itself was approved by Benjamin Netanyahu and his military cabinet (including Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot). The US is definitely aware of this action as well.
Turkish politician Doğu Perinçek, assessing the technical information about the Bell-212 helicopter, also suggests the possibility of sabotage.
Rather, this version, if confirmed during the investigation, is unlikely to be made public and accepted officially because otherwise this fact is casus belli. However, this does not rule out the possibility of a further escalation of tension along the lines of the secret war of the special services.
What is likely to change in Iran’s policy?
This issue is perhaps the one that most concerns foreign states associated with Iran. It should be recognised that Iran’s political system determines the supreme ruler not by the institution of the President, but by the religious status of the Supreme Leader (i.e. Ali Khamenei at this historical stage). Accordingly, Iran’s main foreign policy course (at the regional and global level) is unlikely to undergo radical changes in the near future because in all cases the Supreme Leader has the right to veto the President’s decisions. The situation is similar in domestic politics.
After Raisi’s death, Iran’s opponents and detractors disseminated false information that Iranian society was not particularly worried about this loss because of the deceased’s cruelty and protest sentiments against the regime. However, the farewell to Raisi showed that in Tehran and Mashhad huge masses (up to 15 million people) said goodbye to their leader, Iran was not covered by a protest movement.
Another issue is that if the Iranian side becomes aware of a foreign trace during the investigation of the circumstances of the Bell-212 crash, it may entail an obvious aggravation on political, regional, special and military fronts. Iran will remain interested in the implementation of the North-South multimodal transport project for the transit of goods along the India-Russia-Europe line using the geography of the South Caucasus countries.
Alexander SVARANTS – PhD of Political Science, Professor, especially for online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”