The worsening security situation in the African region of Sahel emphasizes the need for re-assessment of both military efforts and the safety strategy for its countries. We would remind that Sahel is a region in Africa, determined as the ecoclimatic and biogeographical area of the transitional zone between Sahara in the north and the Sudanian savanna in the south. It has hot semiarid climate and spreads through the southern central latitudes of North Africa between the Atlantic Ocean and the Red Sea.
The Sahel part of Africa includes – from the West to the East – parts of Northern Senegal, the southern part of Mauritania, the central part of Mali, the northern part of Burkina Faso, the extreme south of Algeria, the south of Niger, the extreme north of Nigeria, Cameroon and the Central African Republic, the central Chad, the Central and Southern Sudan, the extreme north of South Sudan, Eritrea and the extreme north of Ethiopia. This densely populated region is wrought by ethnic and racial problems as well as the ghost of armed terrorism.
In the recent years, the Sahel countries, like most of the African states, have witnessed more than enough military coups, civil conflicts, hunger and breaking up, and some of them even experienced the wreckage of the state and its institutions. In the first turn, experts lay the blame for this on the former colonial power, France, that still dominates in a number of the countries of this region, and on the new neocolonial state, the USA, who tries to establish its rule here.
The disorders did not circumvent Sudan and Chad. Sudan has experienced severe hunger that had devastated its outskirts, resulting in division of the territory with the area of over million square miles into the northern part where two thirds of the population reside and the southern part allocated to the others. However these turbulent circumstances did not impede the dictatorship regimes to preserve their power. The ex-president of Sudan Omar al-Bashir (was in office from 1989 to 2019) and his “colleague” from Chad Idriss Déby (1990-2021) both became the key figures against the backdrop of disorders, notwithstanding their predominantly adversarial relationship. It is worth noting that both regimes enjoyed support from Washington.
After the fall of the DAESH group (banned in the territory of the RF) created by the USA in Syria and Iraq, the Sahel region became one of the most dangerous regions in the world from the point of view of DAESH’s growing influence. Moreover, Niger, in particular, is facing a whole range of interrelated problems in the sphere of security. In the west of the country, the conflict between the “Islamic State in Sahel”, connected to DAESH, and the “Nusrat-al-Islam val-Muslimin”, connected to al-Qaida, has been raging during three years. At the same time, its southeastern Diva region is fighting a no less serious riot. The threats on the part of the Boko Haram terrorist group still remain (all these organizations are banned in the RF). It is worth mentioning that the CIA still has contacts, and conducts negotiations on some particular issues, with some of these groups.
Niger and its surroundings are an ideal environment for transnational organized crime networks to expand their influence at least to the five neighboring countries of the Sahel region. These threats are especially conspicuous in the central Tahoua and Maradi districts along the southern border of Niger with Nigeria, dominated by well-organized gangs active along roads. A similar case scenario evolved in the Agadez district in Niger rich in gold, resulting in appearance of smuggling routes that cross the country’s borders with Libya, Algeria and Chad. These routes attracted a significant number of armed groups of both separatist and terrorist type.
However, notwithstanding these numerous problems, Niger has been ahead of its neighbors as regards combatting violence and consequences of conflicts. The statement of the Military Council that has come to power in Niger following the recent coup, claiming that it had acted due to the “continuing worsening of the security situation” in the country is not quite convincing as the main justification of their seizing the power.
The previous years, 2019 and 2020, during the rule of the former President of Niger, Mahamadou Issoufou, were marked by even greater destructions when the country had suffered significant damage as the result of serious attacks by DAESH. Niger’s performance indicators were more favorable as compared to the neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso, the countries where the level of violence was higher than in Niger. According to the statistical data of the non-government organization the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, the violence generated by the terrorist groups in the Sahel region is gaining strength at a faster pace than in any other region of Africa. After almost a decade of various conflicts, the incidents of violence have become more frequent in the Sahel region, especially in Burkina Faso, Mali and the Western Niger. Starting from 2020, they increased by 140 percent and do not demonstrate any signs of weakening. It is worth noting that in all these troubled countries France, as the former colonial power, has excellent connections both in the political and economic spheres, making for it possible, as of today, to determine their policy to a significant extent.
Violence against civilians in Sahel, caused by terrorism, amounts to 60 percent of the total number of violence incidents in Africa and, according to forecasts, it will grow at least by 40 percent in the following years. As of today, it has led to displacement of over 2.5 million persons from the countries of the region, forcing them to move, within their own countries, to safer districts or to ethnically connected areas of the neighboring countries, as observed in the cases of the Tuareg and Toubou peoples.
Meanwhile, the mobility and advanced intelligence technologies of the region’s armed groups allowed them to infiltrate the military institutions of the three countries – Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger – leading to the death of hundreds of soldiers and security service officers, who have but limited resources and weapons to fight them. The President of Côte d’Ivoire, Alassane Ouattara, has recently made a statement regarding possible military interference of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in Niger with the aim to restore in office the deposed President Mohamed Bazoum. This gave rise to concerns, and this would not be like the previous interferences. Its possible contours remain vague, therefore generating the questions with regard to the attitude of the majority of the Nigerian population towards such measure.
Obviously, conflicts in the Sahel region are complicated and may not be explained by any single factor. As a result, the worsening security situation in the region emphasizes the need for re-assessment and re-calibration of military efforts and safety strategies adopted by the Sahel countries in the face of escalating threats. This implies acknowledging that Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger face both local political movements and wider terrorist threats. That is why restoration and restructuring of their security forces has utmost importance for stabilizing the whole of the Sahel region. But, to make this happen, significant changes will be needed in the military potential, military doctrines, armed forces composition and their re-orientation within a wider framework of justice and law enforcement authorities. This will require supplementing military actions by measures aimed at improving living conditions, providing for justice and ensuring law observance. This will also require strengthening cooperation with the local communities and improving positive relations with them, that has not yet taken place to any significant extent, notwithstanding the years of tribulations and losses suffered both by the government and the citizens of the region.
Though now public opinion tends to decrease the probability of military interference in Niger, the instability of the situation means that it is too early yet for making any conclusive forecasts. Taking into consideration the ongoing struggle for influence among the large Western powers in Africa, the situation demands, in the first turn, national decisions for the benefit of the African peoples.
Viktor Mikhin, corresponding member of RANS, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”