The rapprochement between China and Russia in the last few decades has been a very significant development for the entire system of international relations. The partnership between these two major countries is developing at a rapid pace and without let up, in many different areas and taking many different forms, and it is also managing to resist considerable pressure from external factors – from the waves of sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 and again in 2022, to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the country most affected by the changes in relations between Russia and China is Mongolia, which has borders with both two countries, but lags behind them in terms of quantitative indicators, including area, population size, GDP and the size of its armed forces. Russia and China together account for by far the greatest share of both its exports – $10.6 billion out of a total of $12.5 billion – and its imports – $5.6 billion out of a total of $8.7 billion. It is therefore only natural that any dealings between Russia and China are the subject of intense scrutiny by Mongolia’s politicians, international relations commentators experts, and ordinary citizens.
Many Western analysts and politicians have speculated on the subject of Mongolia’s being “squeezed” between its two neighbors, in an attempt to portray Mongolia as a victim of the rapprochement between Russia and China. For example, shortly before his visit to Mongolia the French president Emmanuel Macron announced that he would try to help Mongolia by “reducing the pressure which its two neighbors are putting on it”, meaning the recent successful high-level talks between Russia and China and their allegedly potentially negative impact on Mongolia.
Nevertheless, in Mongolia itself, this view is far from universally held. In fact, in Mongolia the rapprochement between Russia and China is seen rather as an opportunity to resolve a number of problems relating to the development of the country’s economic and transport infrastructure, either by promoting joint projects as part of the Russia-Mongolia-China economic triangle, or by leveraging the negotiating platforms of the “corridor” to present Mongolia’s own projects to Russian and Chinese investors. Another question of no less importance for Mongolia is that of access to extra-regional markets for its mineral resources – and, again, the implementation of the “economic corridor” will be key to achieving this. In terms of Mongolia’s recent history, former President Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj was largely responsible for initiating the three-party talks between the leaders of Russia, China and Mongolia, which clearly demonstrates that his country has an interest in the rapprochement between its two neighbors.
The Mongolian perception of relations between Russia and China is vividly illustrated by the reaction of the national media to a fairly recent meeting between the leaders of the two countries. From March 20-22, 2023 the Chinese President Xi Jinping made a trip to the Russian Federation – a significant event for the international community. The two presidents discussed a number of key issues relating to the two countries’ political and economic relations, shared their views on the crisis in Ukraine and discussed their visions of the future international order. In Mongolia observers paid close attention to the visit: MONTSAME, the Mongolian state news agency and one of the country’s largest news media organizations, even devoted several articles to the visit while it was still under way, thus providing with near-real time updates of events as they occurred.
In Mongolia, one of the most widely-held viewpoints in relation to the trip was expressed by Ch. Sumyaa, an expert in international relations, in an interview with the newspaper Zuunii medee. A respected authority in his field, he expresses the view that the meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin may give an impulse to the development of the three-party project to establish an economic corridor taking in Russia, China and Mongolia. He sees the success of the talks as a key condition for the further development of this trilateral regional partnership.
For Mongolian observers, the most interesting point in the meeting between the two heads of state was the discussion of the prospects for the implementation of the planned Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline, which should pass through Mongolia and bring significant transit income to the country. As reported in the Mongolian media, “Russia wishes to expedite the construction of the pipeline in response to the substantial reduction in its supply of natural gas to Europe”. MONTSAME highlighted the significance of the bilateral declaration approving the main parameters for the construction of this project, but it also drew attention to the lack of clarity on the price that Russia will charge for the natural gas that it will supply via the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline. The references to the trilateral regional partnership between Russia, Mongolia and China, and particularly the desire to further develop this partnership in the light of the new geopolitical realities, attracted particular attention in Mongolia.
Mongolian experts also view the partnership between Russia and China as a guarantee of peace and stability in Northeast Asia, something that is very much in Mongolia’s national security interests. However, it is important not to dismiss the concerns expressed by some Mongolian experts about the future implications of Russia’s increasing dependence on China’s hydrocarbon market, which could jeopardize Russia’s generally recognized status as Mongolia’s “main guarantor of political security” and thus giving China too much influence in the region.
In addition, in the light of the recent escalation in the confrontation between Russia and the West, Mongolians are increasingly beginning to look at relations between Russia and China in terms of global, rather than just regional, political processes. MONTSAME, in its article “Two visits unexpectedly coincide” attempted to draw a comparison between the Chinese leader’s visit to Russia and the unexpected visit of the Japanese Prime Minister to Ukraine. According to the newspaper, the rhetoric used in these “unexpectedly coinciding” meetings confirmed that Tokyo and Beijing have diametrically opposed views on the Ukrainian crisis, and once again demonstrates the so-called “split in Asia” between authoritarian and democratic nations, with members of each camp tending to group together with other countries with a similar approach to that highly elusive and difficult-to-define political trait. The Mongolian media also reported on the two leaders’ discussions concerning the regulation of the Ukrainian crisis.
It is therefore clear that the relations between Russia and China are a matter of interest in Mongolia. Despite the speculations of unscrupulous authors, the Mongolian media and general public alike incline towards the view that, assuming that Russia and China observe the principles of balance and parity in their relations, their continuing rapprochement will be a good thing for Mongolia.
Boris Kushkhov, the Department for Korea and Mongolia at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”