Archives Ethiopia - New Eastern Outlook

The Pretoria Agreement brought an end to Ethiopia’s devastating Tigray war—but not its underlying disputes. Four years later, renewed fighting and shifting armed alliances are threatening to reopen the conflict. The consequences could extend far beyond Tigray, destabilising the wider Horn of Africa.

In August 2026, the Ethiopian government declared Sam Fabrizi, the Italian ambassador, persona non grata. Rome chose to remain silent. This incident is not merely a diplomatic incident but a striking example of the new balance of power between Africa and the former colonial powers.

The geopolitical confrontation between Ethiopia and Egypt over control of the Nile’s water resources and access to the Red Sea has escalated into a phase of “playing on the edge,” where the parties prefer a strategy of diplomatic pressure and the formation of regional alliances over direct military confrontation.