As the United States reassesses its global commitments, the opening of Afghanistan’s Wakhan Corridor creates a new trade artery between China, Central Asia and South Asia — giving Russia and China new openings to reshape the Eurasian order.
The Changing Global Balance of Power
Since the recent foreign policy changes and subsequent actions of the West (especially the US) are becoming increasingly disadvantageous to many of their former ‘allies’, Moscow and Beijing have gained an opportunity to strengthen their multilateral relations and reduce the overall dependence on the West. Rather than confronting Western powers directly, both countries are seeking greater influence through regional diplomacy in their own hemispheres. Eurasian order is changing, and world power is now shifting towards China and Russia.
The Vacuum America Has Left Behind
The United States has begun reassessing aspects of its overseas military posture amid escalating Middle Eastern tensions and growing debate over its global commitments. There have been big changes in the number of troops deployed in Europe, which has raised questions about the promises Washington made to Europe in terms of the security it would provide. This has created a vacuum in Eurasia, which can now easily be filled by regional powers like Russia and China. Russia has the opportunity to take advantage of this situation to restructure the security alignment of the region and enhance its role in what once was the Soviet bloc. Similarly, for China, it may provide more room to extend its influence in Asia, specifically in Central Asia. The key geopolitical challenge is how changes in American military activity may create openings for Russia and China to increase their influence.
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 created new diplomatic and security calculations for neighbouring powers. Russia and China, which had maintained relations with Afghanistan before the withdrawal, expanded their engagement with the Taliban-led authorities as they sought to address security concerns, protect economic interests and prevent instability from spreading across Central Asia. The current situation also means that Russia and China have a great opportunity to increase their ties with the Eurasian states. Moreover, China can strengthen its position in the Indo-Pacific and build alliances which can reduce Eurasia’s dependency on US-led alliances like QUAD and AUKUS.
Wakhan Corridor: China’s New Gateway to Eurasia
On 4 October 2026, Afghanistan inaugurated a 121-kilometre road through the Wakhan Corridor to the Chinese border in Xinjiang. The project marks an important step towards direct overland connectivity between the two countries. China, being an economic dragon, can expand its industries in Afghanistan, and Afghanistan could get direct access to Chinese markets. This road can facilitate trade and can strengthen Afghanistan’s economic links with its neighbours.
Afghanistan is also part of China’s extended CPEC initiative. Through this, Afghanistan can rebuild its devastated economy; China can provide economic funds for the construction of roads, railways and energy grids. As a result, China can also gain access to Afghanistan’s minerals, especially the Mes Aynak copper mines. If there is Chinese investment in Afghanistan’s minerals and resources, it could grow CPEC’s economic potential.
However, despite its economic potential, improved connectivity between Afghanistan and China would bring security considerations. Beijing remains concerned about militant activity in Afghanistan, including threats posed by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), as well as the possibility that instability could affect China’s western regions. Effective border management, intelligence-sharing and cooperation between Afghan and Chinese authorities would therefore be important to the route’s long-term viability.
Mr Yue Xiaoyong, Special Envoy of the People’s Republic of China for Afghanistan, described Afghanistan-China relations as
“positive and shared China’s perspectives on regional developments, stressing the importance of joint efforts to advance regional stability, enhance cooperation, and promote Afghanistan’s economic and regional connectivity.”
Russia’s Return to the Eurasian Chessboard
The bilateral ties between Russia and Afghanistan can provide economic and military benefits to both states. The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) offers a route which connects Russia with Asian states like India and Iran. Via Iran, the route can connect to Azerbaijan and Armenia. Azerbaijan’s transport authorities estimate that it could reduce transit time between the Persian Gulf and Northern Europe from 45–60 days to around 20–25 days. This will provide faster and cheaper access to southern markets.
Russia, also known as the military dragon, can increase its military presence in the Global South. It can establish alliances like QUAD and AUKUS to decentralise the Western monopoly in the region. Russia already maintains a military presence in parts of the South Caucasus, including a military base in Armenia and forces stationed in Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. These deployments reflect Moscow’s continuing strategic interests in the region. Military exercises and alliances can reduce terrorist activities in Afghan territory and can create long-term partnerships with Asian states. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said,
“I stress that it is in our common interests to enhance Kabul’s counter-terrorist capabilities by providing technical support and expertise, maintaining contacts between special services and law enforcement agencies.”
Conclusion
Afghanistan has been used historically as a buffer state between the two great empires, namely Britain and Russia. But now, the status of this country as a buffer state is changing from a barrier to a bridge linking Central Asia, China, Iran, and South Asia. Afghanistan could benefit economically from such connections. China can expand the BRI, and Russia can strengthen its regional partnerships. For neighbouring states, connectivity could create economic and security cooperation. These developments could reshape the Eurasian regional order.
Aleena Im is an independent researcher and writer and is interested in international relations and current affairs
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