Egypt’s attempt to enforce British colonial-era treaties in collaboration with the supremacist Somali government, and racist Trump does not spell stability for the Horn of Africa.
Egypt has proceeded to use the dam to build a security alliance, by roping in Somalia and Eritrea, which have had historical grievances against Ethiopia that resulted in devastating wars in the past. However, despite Egypt’s wading into the troubled Horn of Africa using Ethiopia’s dam as a justification, it has not shown any evidence that its water supply has reduced during the GERD’s construction or filling process, which shows that its hostility is motivated by other reasons. This article evaluates whether GERD presents a threat to Egypt’s water supply and national security, to understand its motivation for intervening in the volatile Horn of Africa.
Egypt’s and Ethiopia’s Politics, and Rights
While Egypt receives 90% of water from the Nile, making its concerns about GERD genuine, its precondition that Ethiopia halt the construction before any negotiations revealed ill-will. Egypt’s demand ignored Ethiopia’s legitimate interests over its resources, extending from equality of humans and nations. The rights of 117 million Egyptians to water and electricity does not supersede those of 133 million Ethiopians. Noteworthy, the latter is the source of the Blue Nile and Atbara rivers that are important tributaries to the Nile. Egypt could have requested to participate in contributing ideas to ensure that both countries have equitable access to water. Oppositely, the Ethiopian government under Meles Zenawi had offered to share the Dam’s blueprints with Egypt for coordination but the latter, which was openly high-headed declined, and instead threated to bomb the dam or facilitate Ethiopian rebels.
Ethiopia has been plagued by rebels including Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Fano, which jostle for more power and resources, challenges that can be resolved through economic development that can be facilitated by infrastructure, including GERD. Therefore, Egypt’s concerns were not genuine, as reports noted that the dam could only reduce downstream flow during the filling process: GERD was filled without reducing Egypt’s water supply, which should have persuaded Egypt to stop its hostile alliances. Ethiopia experiences regular floods in the west, some occurring as late as May and August 2024, events that can contribute in filling the reservoir without affecting those downstream. Also, the HeP dam’s operation principles cannot reduce downstream flow, which is stabilized further by the Nile’s other tributaries.
Findings-Basic Operations of Hydroelectric Power (HeP) Dams
HeP dams operate by allowing a continuous flow of water and so does GERD, a fact that Trump may be oblivious to. They are designed with special channels for allowing stored water to flow and turn turbines to generate electricity, making Egypt’s concerns that GERD will constrict water flow disingenuous. To reveal Egypt’s malice towards Ethiopia, one should note that Sudan has several dams along the Nile, which do not prevent water from flowing to Egypt, which also has Aswan dam in the south. Still, Aswan does not prevent water from flowing north to Cairo, and Alexandria.
Ethiopia planned to generate 15,700 GWh of electricity annually, which can only be achieved if water flows through the dam, to finance $4.0 billion cost that was raised through government bonds and private contributions. As noted earlier, Ethiopia announced that it had successfully filled the Reservoir in early October 2023, meaning electricity generation should proceed, including for economic reasons. Curiously, Egypt did not complain of missing its Nile water Quota during this filling process, which proves that its concerns about the project were baseless. It is also important to consider that restricting water flow would ultimately cause overflowing and compromise the structure altogether.
Therefore, Ethiopia’s need for continuous electricity supply, and maintenance of the structures’ integrity coincides with, and hence guarantees Egypt’s need for regular water supply. Furthermore, Egypt’s water supply vis-à-vis Ethiopia’s mega dam is also guaranteed by the presence of other tributaries, such as the White Nile which flows 70% of water into the Nile during the dry months between Januarys to June.
Blue, White, and Black Niles
Trump may be surprised to learn that the Nile has two main tributaries, the Blue and the White Nile, that converge near Khartoum and a minor one that joins further downstream. The Blue Nile, caries twice the volume of water in the White Nile only between July and September. However, the White Nile that originates in East Africa’s great lakes contributes up to 70% of water volumes during the dry season from January to June. Still, Atbara (the Black Nile) which originates from Ethiopia and caries about 20% of water into the Nile and hence Egypt. Therefore, damming of the Blue Nile through the GERD can only affect a small percentage of flow in the dry season, and only during the filling process. However, as noted earlier, the dam’s reservoir is already filled and continuous flow downstream is nearly guaranteed.
Egypt’s opposing the dam, even when it has not complained of missing its water quota, shows that it has not been genuine. Also, Trump’s return and American’s cowboy diplomacy makes Egypt wading into the Horn of Africa extremely dangerous. Trump may join Egypt in enforcing a British colonial-era ban on development along the Nile basin under the justification of guaranteeing Egypt’s access to water. Ethiopia’s prime minister in 2011 noted this possibility and accused Egypt of preventing development along the Nile; this statement has solid basis. Egypt maybe trying to enforce a colonial-era treaty with the British government that gave it veto power over projects built along the Nile, and alienating all other countries in the Nile Basin. It might advance this domination through alliances, including with Trump, who wishes to appease Egypt or distract it away from The Middle East, with low-hanging geopolitical fruits in the Horn of Africa.
Conclusion-Coalition of Unfit and Unwilling
GERD poses no threat to Egypt, and the latter’s maneuver in the Horn of Africa are driven more by internal biases than legitimate interests. Egypt has driven itself into an unsustainable anti-Ethiopian alliance with Somalia, and Eritrea. The alliance’s weakest link is Somalia, a society plagued by deep inter-clan division and superiority complex, which have prevented the formation of a prosperous nation, while giving room for western interference, and Islamism.
Egypt’s attempt to enforce colonial-era treaties in collaboration with the supremacist Somali government, and racist Trump, does not spell stability for the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia, which is facing Fano rebels, after nearly losing to the TPLF, faces a tough future, unless the US and Egypt face more important challenges elsewhere.
Simon Chege Ndiritu, is a political observer and research analyst from Africa, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
