Israel maintains its policy of seeking a military solution to the Palestinian issue in the Gaza Strip. Despite the increasing anti-Israeli sentiment and calls for a cessation of hostilities, Tel Aviv remains committed to ending the Hamas political and military presence.
Meanwhile, the government of Benjamin Netanyahu must respond to the mass protests of Israelis demanding the release of hostages still held by enemies or the resignation of the Prime Minister. To achieve this goal, Mossad continued negotiating with mediators to reach another truce, also known as a “humanitarian pause,” in the Gaza Strip and to resolve the fate of the hostages. The media reported that Israel is prepared to agree to a two-month ceasefire. At the same time, Tel Aviv permitted the transfer of humanitarian aid to the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip in exchange for medical supplies to meet the needs of the hostages.
However, Hamas has coordinated its actions with external partners in the Arab and Islamic world, which has led to conditions that Israel finds unacceptable. Hamas is demanding a complete cessation of hostilities in the Gaza Strip, recognition of the independence of a Palestinian state, and an all-for-all hostage exchange. It is important to note that Hamas is not requesting a mere “humanitarian pause.” The government led by Netanyahu is not currently able to accept such extreme demands.
Israel has destroyed between 20% to 40% of the tunnels and approximately 300,000 buildings in the Gaza Strip. The number of physical casualties is increasing each day, with nearly 27,000 fatalities and over 70,000 wounded. Since October 7, the ongoing conflict between Palestine and Israel has taken on the form of a hybrid regional conflict. In addition to the opposing sides in the Gaza Strip, pro-Iranian proxy forces in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen periodically subject Israeli and pro-Israeli targets in the Middle East to targeted and pinpointed combined attacks.
Lebanese Hezbollah, like Hamas, rejected the Israeli ceasefire offer and continued to strike military targets in northern Israel. Due to the absence of a diplomatic resolution on the Lebanese front, Israel is compelled to utilize military measures to counter the threat.
The Israeli military has recently intensified its activity along the border with Lebanon. The IDF is reorganizing its units and relocating significant amounts of military equipment to the border between Israel and Lebanon. Additionally, Israeli troops are being withdrawn from certain areas of the devastated Gaza Strip. These actions suggest that there may be preparations for military action against Lebanon. Israeli officials are considering the possibility of invading southern Lebanon to destroy Hezbollah’s military facilities and push the Shiite organization beyond the Litani River line.
In the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, the Houthis periodically attack merchant and warships belonging to the pro-Israeli bloc of Western countries. The media reports daily on successful attacks by the Houthis, primarily targeting American and British ships.
Militant Shiite groups in Syria, Iraq, and Jordan are carrying out actions similar to those of the Houthis against predominantly US military bases. These actions are causing not only material destruction but also physical losses to the US military.
On January 28, “Islamic Resistance in Iraq,” a pro-Iran Shia Islamist insurgent group, attacked the US military post in Rukban, located in the northeast of Jordan near the border with Syria, where the US military base known as Tower-22 is located. As a result, three US Army personnel were killed and 34 were wounded. The Jordanian authorities initially denied the attack on a US military facility on their territory, claiming that the incident actually occurred at the US al-Tanf base in Syria.
Meanwhile, the pro-Iranian group “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” is demanding the complete withdrawal of US and other foreign occupation troops from Iraqi and Syrian territory. The United States accuses Iran of directing and coordinating anti-American actions in the Middle East, while Tehran denies any involvement.
The United States cannot ignore such actions taken against it and has declared that retaliation is inevitable. In Washington, some politicians, such as Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, have once again called for an immediate strike on Iran. In response to the calls by US hawks, Iran declared a military alert and put its army and navy on high alert.
US President Joe Biden stated that he retains the right to retaliate when he deems it appropriate. Bloomberg reports that in addition to economic measures, the US may consider a missile strike against Iran under a foreign flag or a targeted special operation to eliminate individual Iranian leaders, similar to the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani.
Furthermore, the United States is providing ongoing military aid to Israel, including the delivery of advanced weaponry such as F-16 and F-35 fighter jets. This aid significantly enhances Israel’s military capabilities and contributes to the potential for military escalation in the region. A strike by the United States on Iran would only increase the tension in the Middle East.
In the meantime, US diplomacy continues to take increasing steps to localize the threats against Israel. In late January, US-Turkish relations warmed due to Turkey’s ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership and the US administration’s decision to deliver 40 modernized F-16 Block70 fighter jets worth $23 billion to Turkey. Washington has accepted Ankara and Riyadh’s offer to recognize Palestinian independence.
Saudi Arabia has proposed a condition to Israel: recognition of Palestine in exchange for establishing diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv. This proposal includes resolving a set of economic issues on the bilateral and multilateral agenda.
The office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a successful meeting in a European country, presumably in France, between the intelligence chiefs of Israel, the United States, Egypt, and the Prime Minister of Qatar to discuss the Palestinian issue in the Gaza Strip. Although there are still significant differences in the positions of the parties, negotiations with a similar approach will continue.
The Israeli delegation included the heads of Mossad (David Barnea), Shabak (Ronen Bar), and Major General (Res.) Nitzan Alon. The American delegation was led by the director of the CIA, William Burns. The Egyptian delegation was represented by Director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate, Abbas Kamel, and the Qatari delegation was led by Prime Minister, Mohammed al-Thani. The parties in this important status discussed not only the topic of hostage exchange but also the political settlement of Israeli-Palestinian relations.
The initial ruling by the ICJ regarding calls for Israel to prevent genocide against Palestinians in Gaza was also opposed by the US and Israel. Washington believes that Israel operates within the framework of international law and relevant conventions, has the right to self-defense, and does not commit war crimes. Tel Aviv stated that it did not require any guidance from the ICJ and was following international norms. Under pressure from the US, Israel has only agreed to allow a UN delegation into the Gaza Strip and provide humanitarian aid to the Palestinians.
Meanwhile, the US and its allies, such as France, the UK, and Germany, have suspended funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) due to suspicions of possible involvement by 12 of its employees in the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel.
Israel, which receives strong military and political support from the US and other Western countries, is likely to continue its destructive war in the Middle East until Washington achieves a breakthrough in agreeing with key Arab countries and Turkey on a solution to the Palestinian issue. This decision should satisfy Tel Aviv and align with the ambitions of the US. Time will tell how it turns out in reality.
Alexander SVARANTS – Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor, specially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
